Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
After a quiet five-game slate Tuesday, the NBA is back with a monstrous 11-game Wednesday slate for our DFS enjoyment, the largest slate of the season since the 13-gamer during opening week.
Vegas Odds derived from DraftKings SportsBook. All totals from the time of writing are posted. With that said, some games will not have totals posted if there is outstanding injury news.
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Houston Rockets @ Indiana Pacers (-2, 225.5 total)
Pace: HOU (T21st), INA (T21st)
Defensive efficiency: HOU (T20th), IND (T11th)
The Rockets are finally back to full strength, but that doesn’t keep James Harden from being an elite option. Even with a full team, he holds a 33.9% usage rate and posts 1.55 fantasy points per minute. At $11,000, he’s an elite play in a game that should stay close. The same can be said for Christian Wood ($7,700) and John Wall ($7,400), who both remain too cheap for both averaging over 1.15 fantasy points per minute. The matchup isn’t ideal, but they’re priced at a point where their current production gets them to the 5x threshold, making them great options.
For the Pacers, both Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis are viable, but their prices have both gotten to a point where they aren’t clear-cut locks anymore. They still have upside, but with it being harder to fit them into lineups, that makes Victor Oladipo ($7,000) my favorite option on the Pacers. With Warren out this season, Oladipo has posted a 27% usage rate and averaged 1.10 fantasy points per minute, while failing to drop below 33 DraftKings points in a single game this season. He’s a rock-solid play at this price.
There’s merit to both Justin Holiday (40 minutes in last game) and Doug McDermott (29) at their prices in a favorable matchup, but it’ll depend if value opens up elsewhere. If not, they’re viable value pieces, but if value opens up, they’ll fall down the priority list being low usage players.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Orlando Magic (-6, 213 total)
Pace: CLE (24th), ORL (T9th)
Defensive efficiency: CLE (2nd), ORL (5th)
After just seeing this same matchup Monday, it makes sense to go right back to the well with Nikola Vucevic at under $9,000. In the last game against the Cavs, Vucevic posted 23 points and eight rebounds on an efficient 9-17 shooting, something that feels like a baseline performance. The difference on this slate, however, is the fact that Andre Drummond is now $100 cheaper, not $500 more expensive. This makes him an extremely appealing play at $8,600, as he still posted 10 points and 14 rebounds in a down game last game. At $8,600, his ceiling is immense.
The difficulty in this game comes when trying to find ancillary pieces. With Michael Carter-Williams out and Evan Fournier questionable, Cole Anthony immediately stands out as an elite option should Fournier miss. With both of those players off the court, Anthony holds a 24.4% usage rate and averages over a fantasy point per minute, which would make him one of the top value plays on the slate.
Aaron Gordon is still appealing at $6,400 on DraftKings, as he posted a 24-point, 11-rebound double-double last game and could finally crack 30 minutes Wednesday.
For the Cavs, Collin Sexton remains a viable option, especially if Darius Garland sits, but his lack of peripherals has me leaning elsewhere in this range on Wednesday. If there’s another Cavs. player to target, Cedi Osman makes sense at $5,500 given his increased playing time without Isaac Okoro and Kevin Love.
Washington Wizards @ Philadelphia 76ers (-6.5, 231 total)
Pace: WAS (3rd), PHI (13th)
Defensive efficiency: WAS (17th), PHI (1st)
Joel Embiid is under $10,000 on DraftKings, making him an elite play against the Wizards. Over his last five games against the Wizards, he’s averaging 28 points, 14.6 rebounds and 1.8 blocks in 33.2 minutes per game.
Both Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris are viable in tournaments given the matchup, but again, it’s hard to fully trust them when the entire Sixers team is healthy because of how many mouths there are to feed. The same can be said about Seth Curry.
For the Wizards, it’s hard to get away from Russell Westbrook until he’s priced up a bit higher, as he’s a sure-fire bet for a triple-double almost every night. He should come at lower ownership at $10,200, making him an elite tournament option. Bradley Beal is also an elite option, as he still has an overall 35% usage rate this season (including games Westbrook played) and is posting over 1.3 DraftKings points per minute. He should also have little to no ownership at $9,000. Outside of those two, however, it’s not really advantageous to target the rest of the Wizards in a tough matchup on an 11-game slate.
Charlotte Hornets @ Atlanta Hawks (-6.5, 232 total)
Pace: CHA (T9th), ATL (T13th)
Defensive efficiency: CHA (15th), ATL (18th)
While the Hornets in general are an unappealing team to target, a matchup with the Hawks presents us with some opportunity. The two specific Hornets’ players I am keying in on are LaMelo Ball and P.J. Washington. Minutes have been trending in the right direction for Ball (30-plus in back-to-back games) and while shooting under 35% in those games, he’s averaged 5.5 rebounds and seven assists to go along with three steals and a block per game (over his last two games). He has legitimate triple-double upside in this game and is someone I have a ton of interest in. Washington remains too cheap for his 40-point upside. Game log chasers will be turned away after a few down games due to blowouts and foul trouble, but the upside is there for a super reasonable price.
You can get away with Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward on this slate, but there are safer options in this price range elsewhere.
For the Hawks, the story remains the same. Target Trae Young and John Collins and fill in with ancillary pieces. Young should carry low ownership on a full slate, making him an appealing option. Collins is still a touch cheap ($7,200) and while the presence of Clint Capela has surely affected his production (under 18 points per game, under eight rebounds per game with Capela in), the upside is still massive for his price.
Speaking of Capela, he’s averaged over 30 minutes per game over his last three, posting 13.3 points, 13 rebounds and a block per game. For his price, that’s extremely safe production in this matchup.
The wings for Atlanta are once again in play with Rajon Rondo and Danilo Gallinari out. The order of preference would be De'Andre Hunter, then Bogdan Bogdanovic, then Cam Reddish, with Hunter being a rock-solid cash game option.
Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat (-2.5, 217.5 total)
Pace: BOS (T18th), MIA (16th)
Defensive efficiency: BOS (18th), MIA (8th)
There’s news to monitor here as both Jeff Teague and Marcus Smart are in danger of missing consecutive outings, but we already know where to go if they do. Payton Pritchard logged 33 minutes off the bench and posted 23 points and eight assists in their last absence and would be the best option to do the same if it happens again. His price rose, so he’s not the value lock he was last time, but he’s certainly viable.
If Teague and/or Smart sit, it only adds onto the already massive stock of Jayson Tatum. He dropped 40 raw points last game and owns a 30.6% usage rate (1.74 FPPM) with them out. It’s not an easy matchup, but he’s relatively matchup-proof. This would also give Jaylen Brown an incremental boost, as he held a 30.3% usage rate with them out last game. Of the two, Tatum is the preferred option.
The Miami side is hard to get on board with. Not because they aren’t good, but because they’re all priced at amounts that are hard to target on an 11-game slate with so many elite options elsewhere. With that said, I won’t argue with you if you want to play Bam Adebayo at $8,500, or Jimmy Butler at $7,300.
My favorite Heat player is Kelly Olynyk. He got the start last game at $3,900 and saw a $500 price increase after going 7-9 from the field in 27 minutes. With Boston typically starting a bigger lineup, it would make sense for Olynyk to snag another start Wednesday.
Utah Jazz (-6) @ New York Knicks (214 total)
Pace: UTA (23rd), NYK (T25th)
Defensive efficiency: UTA (T13th), NYK (T11th)
The Jazz are a hard team to target as it is, simply because of how many guys get involved in the offense, but they’re also coming off of the first game of a back-to-back on an 11-game slate. Donovan Mitchell makes sense here as the primary ball handler and usage monster on this offense, but he doesn’t feel like a must, especially given his volatility.
Rudy Gobert would be my top choice for Utah, as he’s been a model of consistency so far this season and has averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute. The concern, however, is the back-to-back, as he saw under 30 minutes last time on the second leg of a back-to-back.
Believe it or not, I have more interest in the Knicks than I do the Jazz here. When it comes to minutes, it’s hard to find safer bets than both Julius Randle and R.J. Barrett. Randle has averaged almost 30 more touches per game this season than he did in 2019-20, leading to a 26.3% usage rate, 31.3% assist rate and over 1.2 fantasy points per minute. While his price is hard to stomach at first glance, it’s completely warranted and one I do have interest in.
Barrett finds himself significantly cheaper than Randle, but has really come into his own on offense recently. His 22.8% usage rate isn’t an elite number, but he’s averaged 25.5 points and eight rebounds over his last two games, in which he’s also averaged 45.5 minutes. If he keeps shooting the ball at a respectable clip, it’s going to be hard for him to not get there strictly based on how much he’s on the court.
Detroit Pistons @ Milwaukee Bucks (-13.5, 227 total)
Pace: DET (T18th), MIL (4th)
Defensive efficiency: DET (26th), MIL (9th)
This is another game that we saw merely days ago, but there’s an added wrinkle this time around. Not only is Blake Griffin expected back, but rookie Killian Hayes is expected to miss this game with a labral tear in his hip that he suffered last game against the Bucks. This opens up a starting spot for either Derrick Rose or Delon Wright. A matchup with Milwaukee is far from appealing, but both would garner merit for consideration, as Rose holds the highest usage rate on the team (30.6% with Hayes out) and Wright would be a good source of salary relief. Both are viable regardless of who starts. If Josh Jackson sits out again, that would only bolster their stock.
The Bucks are in the same boat they were last game, as they’re tough to target when the game has a high likelihood of getting out of hand early. Giannis Antetokounmpo is still an elite target, as he had 30 raw points at halftime last game, but because of the projected game script, it’s hard to prioritize him over other studs on this slate. He is, however, an elite large-field tournament play at what should be minimal ownership.
His price is rising, but I would still pay $5,000 for Bobby Portis with a game projected to be a blow-out. Is it safe? Not necessarily, but there’s the upside for 30-35 DraftKings points here if the game scripts as we expect it to, making him a great value in GPP lineups.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ New Orleans Pelicans (-8.5, 213 total)
Pace: OKC (T18th), NOP (T27th)
Defensive efficiency: OKC (16th), NOP (4th)
With such a low total, this is going to be a rather unfavorable game to target, since both teams are bottom-half of the league in pace.
On the Thunder side of the ball, it starts and ends with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He’s in play virtually every time he’s on a slate strictly based on his role, but $7,300 on DraftKings feels a touch cheap for someone with a 28.4% usage rate averaging a fantasy point per minute.
For the Pelicans, it’s really down to either Brandon Ingram or Zion Williamson. Williamson continues to carry more ownership, but with it comes more volatility. Ingram is my preferred option, as there’s really nobody on OKC to counter him (Or Zion, for that matter), plus he’s posted 1.30 DraftKings points per minute with a team-high 31.1% usage rate. Williamson remains viable given his ceiling, but he carries a lower floor than Ingram.
Toronto Raptors @ Phoenix Suns (-3.5, 217 total)
Pace: TOR (T5th), PHO (30th)
Defensive efficiency: TOR (7th), PHO (3rd)
I’ve talked about the difference in appeal of games between fandom and fantasy purposes, and this is a perfect example. There isn’t a single player in this entire game priced above $7,900 on DraftKings, so it’s not that the salaries are outrageous, but these are two great defensive units that distribute the usage among a handful of players, which doesn’t cater well to DFS.
If there’s one option that I like more than anyone else in this game, Fred VanVleet would be the one. His recent form is impeccable (29 points, seven rebounds and five assists per game over last three games) and he should be able to shy away from Chris Paul and Mikal Bridges defensively, giving him a bit more room to operate.
Los Angeles Clippers (-5) @ Golden State Warriors (234 total)
Pace: LAC (29th), GSW (1st)
Defensive efficiency: LAC (T20th), GSW (22nd)
The news of the game here is whether Paul George will suit up after missing Tuesday’s game due to a pre-game ankle injury. With his status very much up in the air, it’s hard to ignore Kawhi Leonard at $9,100. Without George this season, he’s held a 32.4% usage rate, 36.4% assist rate and posted 1.55 fantasy points per minute. We saw similar numbers last season, as Leonard posted a 36.4% usage rate and 1.62 FPPM, which even shows room for more upside.
Being able to rid the back-to-back concern for Leonard on a nationally televised game (per the league now punishing players for resting in this situation), he’s locked in as a top play on this slate and would become arguably the best play of the slate should George sit.
Outside of Leonard, there’s merit to Lou Williams at his tag. He came around on Tuesday and holds a 26% usage rate without George while averaging over a fantasy point per minute. His stock, however, is strictly tied to the status of Paul George. Luka Kennard would also be a viable value if he were to enter the starting lineup again, as this is a perfect matchup for a player of his archetype.
For the Warriors, expect Stephen Curry to once again be one of the most popular plays on the slate. Sure, the matchup isn’t appealing, but that doesn’t matter when you’re running as hot as he is (46 points, seven rebounds, six assists per game over the last two games, 46.4% from three). At $9,800, he still remains too cheap. Outside of Curry, however, it’s hard to get on board with the rest of the Warriors. Kelly Oubre is only $5,500 and is rounding back into form, although I wouldn’t bank on him shooting over 50% from distance like he has been over the last two games. Regardless, he’s cheap enough to warrant consideration in a game-stack or as a one-off.
Chicago Bulls @ Sacramento Kings (-7, 231 total)
Pace: CHI (2nd), SAC (15th)
Defensive efficiency: CHI (24th), SAC (25th)
This should be one of the more fantasy-friendly games of the slate, as both the Bulls and Kings defensive units have been some of the worst in the league thus far.
Even so, Zach LaVine is likely the only Bulls player that I’ll have interest in. At $8,300, you’re getting a 30.2% usage rate and 1.18 fantasy points per minute (up to 30.8% and 1.21 FPPM with Lauri Markkanen out). The second leg of a back-to-back may warrant some concern, but the offense is funneling through him and he’s still a bit too cheap.
You can also get away with Coby White for a discount, although he’s a more volatile player and is averaging under a fantasy point per minute (0.95).
As for the Kings, this is a picture-perfect matchup for De'Aaron Fox. Fox, a player who thrives in transition (where the Bulls’ defense struggles the most), is posting a 28.2% usage rate and gets the best matchup a point guard could ask for, as the Bulls rank 22nd against dimers, 27th against primary ball handlers and 24 against craft finishers, per aDvP.
Richaun Holmes and Marvin Bagley are fine plays at their respective prices, but with so many viable centers elsewhere, it feels unnecessary on this slate. The same can be said for Buddy Hield on DraftKings. With that said, his FanDuel price ($5,200) is flat out egregious, as he’s priced for his floor games. He should be the most popular SG2 of the slate and one I strongly recommend targeting in this matchup.
