Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We have a five-game NBA slate Tuesday night, and to be honest, it’s pretty straightforward from a DFS perspective. The Nets will be without one of their superstars, which will direct plenty of attention to the rest of that roster. Getting the right plays from the remaining teams, however, is going to be crucial this evening.
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Utah Jazz @ Brooklyn Nets
BKN -2.5, total: 231.5
The Nets will be without Kevin Durant for this game, as well as the next three, as the superstar will be in quarantine for the next week. And with Spencer Dinwiddie already sidelined, Brooklyn will have to fill two major offensive voids. Luckily, they still have two fantastic offensive players in Kyrie Irving and Caris LeVert, who are sure to be (understandably) popular on this slate. So far this season, in 113.6 minutes with Durant off the floor, LeVert is sporting a massive 36.8% usage rate, 24% assist rate and 20% rebounding rate. Of course, a huge part of that sample came during the game where Irving, Durant and Dinwiddie were all out, but there is clearly a huge opportunity here for LeVert. A huge part of LeVert’s game comes from the mid-range, as 33% of his shot attempts come from the free-throw-line distance, one of the higher marks in basketball. Facing a Jazz defense that has elite rim protection with Rudy Gobert, it might be a better idea to pull up from that part of the floor, rather than driving to the basket. In fact, 24.6% of the shot attempts against Utah this season have come from the short mid-range, the fourth-highest rate in the NBA.
Meanwhile, you obviously have to love Irving in this spot. He is sporting a 33% usage rate with Durant off the court this season, while averaging a ridiculous 1.73 fantasy points per minute. With Durant out, I expect we see more pick and roll from Irving, who is averaging 8.3 points per game as the pick-and-roll ball handler this season. The Jazz, meanwhile, are coughing up 21.7 points per game to opposing pick and roll ball handlers, good for the sixth-most in basketball. And in 2019, they allowed the second-most such points per game in the league.
Irving and LeVert are the two obvious plays but with Durant out, and perhaps Jeff Green or Taurean Prince become viable cheaper options. It is likely that one of the two enters the starting lineup at power forward, giving them some decent rebounding potential. Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot has also been starting and is just $3,700 on DraftKings. Durant’s absence could lead to more solidified minutes from TLC, while his usage rate jumps up by over six% with Durant off the floor this season.
Meanwhile, the Jazz are tougher to highlight because they have such a deep rotation. Donovan Mitchell is coming off his best game of the season and is $7,400 on DK and still leads Utah with a 30.5% usage rate. However, Utah also has five players with at least a 19% usage rate this season, while Mike Conley is running a ton of the pick and roll. No one on Utah is a priority now that they are at full strength, though keep an eye on Joe Ingles. He’s just $4,700 and has logged 30-plus minutes in two of his last three games. He only played 21 minutes last game, but he only played two minutes in the fourth quarter due to a blowout.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies
LAL -9; total: 218
These teams played Sunday evening, which was my last time on this article. My analysis is essentially the same, but let’s recap, shall we?
For starters, Anthony Davis was high on my list in this spot, though he underwhelmed a bit. However, his price is down to $9,500, one of the cheapest tags we’ve seen for him. I’m going right back to him here, especially with the price drop. Davis is still averaging four post-up points per game on the year, tied for the ninth-most in the NBA. Memphis, meanwhile, is allowing a 60% field goal percentage to the post this season, the fifth-worst mark in basketball. LeBron James, meanwhile, is expected to play and per usual, is a perfectly fine play. He’s been over 54 fantasy points in three of his last four games.
We’ll see if the Lakers run the same starting five they deployed last game if Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is out again. On Sunday night they started Dennis Schroder, Kyle Kuzma, James, Davis and Marc Gasol, a rather large lineup. Playing alongside Schroder, James and Davis, Kuzma’s usage rate was under 18% and even if he starts again, it is going to be tough to get excited about him for fantasy, especially at nearly $6,000. However, in KCP’s absence, we saw preseason star Talen Horton-Tucker play a season-high 24 minutes the other night. He’d be a viable value option if KCP is ruled out again.
Memphis is still obviously very depleted but because so many players have seen recent uptick in minutes and production, their price tags aren’t really cheap. Jonas Valanciunas is back below $8,000 on DK and while it appears his 39-minute game against Brooklyn was an outlier, he could still smash in 28-32 minutes. With Ja Morant off the court this season, Valanciunas is sporting a 23.2% usage rate and whopping 39% rebounding rate, while averaging well over a fantasy point per minute. You would think facing a Lakers frontcourt that has plenty of size would result in more minutes from JoVal but since there is still uncertainty with his minutes, I’d save him for tournaments, though he’s a very, very intriguing play.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
DEN -12; total: 227
I was all over Jamal Murray in this same spot Sunday night and he delivered with a huge game. Murray went off for 36 points, five rebounds and four assists and I like going back to him and Nikola Jokic again here. Minnesota is one of the worst defensive units in the NBA but especially against the dribble hand off, which is why I loved Murray in the first place. No player in basketball is averaging more points per game off hand offs this season than Murray (4.2), while the Timberwolves are surrendering 8.0 points per game off the play type, good for the fourth-most in the league. You can absolutely pair Murray with Jokic, as the two correlate so well given that they orchestrate the dribble hand off offense for Denver. Jokic has recorded four triple-doubles in four games, while falling one number shy in the other two contests. He also still leads the NBA in touches per game (106.6) and even though his price tag has climbed upward, I still love him here, especially if Minnesota can keep the game close.
Michael Porter is out again for Denver, presenting other members of the team with more opportunity. Will Barton has been in the starting lineup in his absence but don’t sleep on two value plays from Denver. JaMychal Green played 27 minutes last game and while he did play all of the fourth quarter in a blowout, it is obviously possible that this game gets out of hand again, as the Nuggets are 12-point home favorites. He is worth a look at under $4,000 on DraftKings. Meanwhile, Monte Morris has now logged at least 29 minutes in four of his last five games.
I still like the idea of stacking this game in tournaments because both defenses have struggled. D'Angelo Russell is still the preferred option from Minnesota and while he hasn’t had that monster game just yet, his price has come down a bit and he is still sporting a healthy 29.8% usage rate with Karl-Anthony Towns off the floor this season, while averaging 1.05 fantasy points per minute. Minnesota mixed up their starting five last game, starting both Ed Davis and Juancho Hernangomez. If they stick with that unit tonight, Juancho, who played 25 minutes in the first meeting, could be worth a look. Meanwhile, I have no issue with Jarrett Culver, who is now SG/SF eligible on DraftKings and is locked into low-30s minutes.
San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Clippers
LAC -8; total: 227.5
We’ll see if LaMarcus Aldridge returns to the lineup for the Spurs. The veteran has missed each of the team’s last four games with a knee injury. During that span, San Antonio has been starting Jakob Poeltl, though the minutes and production haven’t been great. We’ve seen a lot of DeMar DeRozan at power forward, which has led to a few strong rebounding games. He is also sporting a 26.3% usage rate with Aldridge off the floor this season, while both his rebounding and assist rates are over 20%. His free throw attempts are down this season, but DeRozan is logging huge minutes in close games right now, while the Spurs are quietly eighth in the NBA in pace so far this season. Dejounte Murray is coming off a game where he shot 1-for-13 from the field, yet he still finished with 21.2 fantasy points. Derrick White suffered a setback in his season debut and will likely once again miss time, which should solidify Murray’s minutes. Finally, Keldon Johnson is quietly averaging around 13 rebounding chances per game and with Aldridge off the floor this season, the rookie’s rebounding rate jumps up to 28%.
The only two members of the Clippers that intrigue me are Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. George has reached 52 fantasy points in each of his last three games but now that Leonard’s price tag is much closer, the decision between the two becomes a lot more difficult. Like Murray, Kawhi also struggled from the field in his last game, shooting 4-for-21 against the Suns. However, he still scored 30 fantasy points in the game and his price has come down. Leonard is currently averaging 2.6 points per game off screens (fifth-most), while George is averaging 2.4 such points per game. Meanwhile, the Spurs are coughing up 5.7 points per game off screens on the year (6th-most), as well as the sixth-highest field goal percentage off the play type (46.4%). Finally, DraftKings is daring you to play Lou Williams at $4,300 but I’m still not convinced I want to. He’s missing Montrezl Harrell alongside him on the second unit, while Williams’ usage rate is down nearly 8% from a season ago.
Chicago Bulls @ Portland Trail Blazers
POR -10, total: 234
This game should offer plenty of scoring, as it features two teams that rank inside the bottom-five in defensive rating thus far. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum should be able to do whatever they want against this weak Chicago defense. Lillard continues to score out of the pick and roll as much as any player in basketball, as his 13.5 points per game out of the set trail only Trae Young of the Hawks so far this season. Meanwhile, the Bulls are coughing up the fourth-most points per game to opposing pick and roll ball-handlers (23.9), as well as the fourth-most points per possession (1.01) and the second-highest field goal percentage (49.2%). Meanwhile, this appears to be a great spot for Jusuf Nurkic but the production just hasn’t been there yet. Enes Kanter is hurting his value, as Kanter has a higher rebounding rate (43-30%) and is averaging just three fewer minutes per contest. The ceiling is still there for a player like Nurkic but it is tough to trust the minutes right now.
Zach LaVine is the top Chicago option, per usual. He is coming off a stellar game where he scored just under 60 fantasy points and now gets another favorable matchup with a Portland unit that is allowing a league-worst 1.09 points per possession to opposing pick and roll ball handlers this season. And with Lauri Markkanen and Tomas Satoransky still out for the Bulls, LaVine and Coby White should continue to touch the ball a ton. White is more of a floor play for me, though you can certainly use him in a game stack here. Finally, with Markkanen out, Otto Porter should start and continue to grab a fair number of rebounds, though I like taking the discount with Patrick Williams at $4,200.
