NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
We end the work week with a juicy 11-game NBA slate that features a ton to consider for DFS. Luckily, that is what this game-by-game breakdown is for. To go through everything and touch on what stands out and what doesn’t. There are a couple of games on this slate that really aren’t very appealing but there are also a ton that have a handful of different intriguing pieces.
Let’s get after it.
(Make sure to check out all of the great FTN NBA offerings and fantastic NBA Tools, including our FTN NBA Odds Tracker and daily FTN NBA DFS cheat sheets!)
Chicago Bulls @ Charlotte Hornets
CHA -3.5, total: 227
Zach LaVine is coming off a monster game against the Rockets, scoring 33 points to go along with seven assists and four rebounds. LaVine’s usage rate is hovering around the 30% mark on the season, while averaging 18.6 shot attempts per game. We know he has as much upside as nearly anyone on a given slate, though I personally rarely get to LaVine at a near $10,000 price tag, especially on a loaded 11-game slate.
While LaVine is perfectly fine, my attention shifts to Lauri Markkanen, who is in a good spot and should see a bump in this game. Wendell Carter is listed as doubtful with a thigh injury, which could lead to more minutes at the five for Markkanen. His rebounding rate climbs to a solid 25% with Carter off the floor this season, while he also sees a healthy 4.2% bump in usage in the split, the highest mark on the team. With a 27.2% usage rate and 1.35 fantasy points per minute with Carter off the floor this season, Markkanen sets up well already, but especially in a matchup against the Hornets. Charlotte will get Cody Zeller back for this game, but this is still a weak interior defense. They are allowing the most real points (24.5) and sixth-most three-pointers (2.79) per game to opposing power forwards this season, while ranking 28th against stretch centers, according to our advanced DVP tool. In general, the Hornets allow a ton of threes, as 38.6% of the points scored against this team have come from beyond the arc, the third-highest rate in basketball. A huge reason behind that is the fact that they are playing a ton of zone, as they play zone defense around 22% of the time, the highest rate in basketball. And as a result, they are surrendering a league-leading 42.3 points per game to spot-up shooters. That bodes well for Markkanen, who leads the Bulls in spot-up points per game (6.1), a number that is also tied for the 11th-most in basketball. I really, really like Markkanen in this spot.
With Carter likely out, we should see Daniel Gafford enter the starting lineup. There is still no guarantee he’d play 25 minutes since the Bulls could play Markkanen plenty at the five in this game, while they have a handful of players that can comfortably play the four, especially against a Charlotte team that has been playing small quite a bit this season. At $3,100 on DraftKings, you can certainly take a shot on Gafford but since he is only center eligible, that is a little scary. I think you can also consider Thaddeus Young, especially with Patrick Williams looking very questionable to play in this game. He is averaging a fantasy point per minute with both Williams and Carter off the floor this season.
For Charlotte, LaMelo Ball continues to play well, averaging 1.32 fantasy points per minute while posting a 24% assist rate and 27% rebound rate, both of which are team-highs. However, the Hornets still aren’t unleashing him and playing him huge minutes, which makes him a bit risky at $7,800 on DraftKings. Gordon Hayward, who is just $100 more, has a much safer projection for minutes, averaging just over 34 per game. This is a strong matchup for Hayward, facing a poor Bulls defense that ranks second in the NBA in pace. Hayward, meanwhile, is averaging 6.1 transition points per game this season, good for the sixth-most in the league. He is also shooting over 65% from the field when in transition. The Bulls also rank 30th against primary ball handlers, 27th against crafty finishers and 28th against point forwards. I also don’t mind looking to Devonte’ Graham at just $6,200. He’s attempted at least 14 shots in five of his last 10 games and is still locked into huge minutes, averaging over 36 per game over his last four outings. Graham started the season off unable to hit a shot, but it is starting to fall as of late.
Houston Rockets @ Detroit Pistons
DET -3.5, total: 217.5
The Rockets will be even more short-handed Friday, as not only is John Wall still out, but now Christian Wood is out with an ankle injury. Victor Oladipo is sporting a 38.8% usage rate through his first two games with Houston, while averaging 81.5 touches and 7.5 minutes of possession during that span. His price has come up to $8,000, but with Wood also sidelined, all of the usage will go to Oladipo, while the matchup against the Pistons is favorable. In two games with Houston, Oladipo is also averaging just over 15 possessions and 17 points per game as the primary ball handler out of the pick and roll, so the ball is clearly in his hands a ton, and it will continue to be. The Pistons rank 27th against primary ball-handlers this season, as well as 29th against scorers and 29th against crafty finishers, setting Oladipo up for another productive game with the Rockets. Of course, with Wood ruled out, many will look to DeMarcus Cousins, who will likely be one of the more popular plays on the slate. With both Wall and Wood off the floor this season, Cousins is sporting a 25% usage rate, as well as a 39% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.29 fantasy points per minute. Cousins has started one game this season, scoring nine points to go along with 14 rebounds, one assist, two steals and four blocks in 23 minutes. It doesn’t seem like he’ll suddenly play 30-plus minutes here but at $4,400, Cousins only needs to play 25 or so to smash, especially given how efficient he is in fantasy. We could also see P.J. Tucker play more center in this game, which should help his rebounding potential. You could do worse than Tucker at $4,100 on DraftKings.
For the Pistons, only three players really stand out. Jerami Grant continues to post fantastic numbers during his career year. His usage rate is up by around 6% during his first season in Detroit, while his touches per game have climbed by around 30. Meanwhile, Derrick Rose has now played 27 and 28 minutes over his last two contests, both of which were close games. He’s just $5,500 and is still seeing a ton of usage, sporting a healthy 29.1% usage rate, the highest mark on the Pistons. Finally, Blake Griffin doesn’t offer the same ceiling as he once did, but this is a strong matchup, facing a Houston team that is surrendering 8.2 post-up points per game on the year, the most in the NBA. Griffin, meanwhile, is averaging 4.0 post-up points per game, a top-10 number in basketball.
Orlando Magic @ Indiana Pacers
IND -4.5, total: 218.5
The Magic got Evan Fournier back in their lineup last game, his first action in nine games after suffering a back injury. However, it didn’t impact the recent uptick in usage from Aaron Gordon, who posted another well-rounded outing (13-9-7-4). The assists have skyrocketed since Markelle Fultz tore his ACL, as Gordon has played a lot of point forward for the Magic. Over the last two weeks, Gordon’s 19% assist rate leads the team and since Fultz’s injury, Gordon is averaging a healthy 79.5 touches per game, up from his season average of 63.5. And during that same span, Gordon is also averaging 16.3 assist points created per contest, up from his season average of 9.6. This usage raises both his floor and ceiling so much to the point that I still have interest in Gordon, even at an elevated price tag in a middling matchup. Nikola Vucevic, meanwhile, is at a very solid price tag and you seemingly know what you are going to get from him each and every night. However, he isn’t my favorite center on the slate or anything like that.
My favorite member of the Pacers is easily Malcolm Brogdon, who has seen his price come down to $8,200 on DK. That is a really nice price tag for someone who is so heavily involved in their team’s offense, as Brogdon ranks fifth in basketball in both touches per game (93.6) and time of possession per game (7.8 minutes), while his 68.0 passes made per game are the fourth-most in the league. Of course, Domantas Sabonis is always going to produce, as he is second in the league in touches per game, while his 23.0 rebounding chances per game are good for the third-most in basketball. He’s recorded double-digit rebounds in each of his last 10 games and should make it an 11th consecutive contest, especially if Myles Turner remains sidelined. In his absence, Sabonis has moved to the five while Doug McDermott has been starting at the power forward. He was very good last game and walked into eight rebounds at his temporary position.
Brooklyn Nets @ Cleveland Cavaliers
BKN -7, total: 225.5
Heading into this game Wednesday night, I had very little interest. Brooklyn was getting Kyrie Irving back, while the Cavaliers saw Collin Sexton return to their lineup. Cleveland also saw Jarrett Allen and Taurean Prince make their Cavs. debuts. However, the game stayed close and ultimately gave us a pair of overtime periods. Sexton took advantage of it, scoring 42 points, including the final 20 points from the Cavaliers. He had a 38.6% usage rate in that game and if Darius Garland (shoulder) can’t return, you have to at least consider Sexton again here. Brooklyn’s defense has been terrible this season, allowing the third-most points per game to opposing pick and roll ball handlers (21.9). Sexton, meanwhile, is averaging 9.6 such points per contest this year, the 11th-most in the league. As for the rest of this team, I don’t see how you can feel comfortable paying $9,400 for Andre Drummond. Yes, the matchup is ideal but with Allen active for the first time on Wednesday, Drummond’s minutes dropped to 26, which is especially alarming when you consider that the game went to double overtime and Drummond wasn’t in foul trouble. Allen actually played both overtime periods, while Drummond came out of the game at the 4:12 mark of the fourth quarter and never returned.
The Nets finally showcased their three stars Wednesday night, as Irving, James Harden and Kevin Durant all played. All three eclipsed 50 fantasy points, while Durant went off for over 70 fantasy points. Durant led the team in touches, while Irving was right behind him, though it was Kyrie who led the team with a 31.2% usage rate. Durant was right behind him at just over 27%, while Harden was shockingly at 18.3%. The peripherals were there for Harden, but Irving and Durant took way more shots. Kyrie’s price tag hasn’t moved on DK, which makes him the most interesting member of this team here, at least for me. I think getting exposure to these three stars obviously makes sense, but they aren’t exactly priorities for me on this slate.
Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers
PHI -4.5, total: 222
These teams also met Wednesday night and it was Kemba Walker’s second game of the season. He logged 22 minutes after playing 20 in his season debut Jan. 17, but we did get word that Walker’s minutes limit has been increased to 25-28. Usually when a limit is set in a range like that, the total ends up being closer to the higher end, so I think we really need to consider Kemba here, especially considering he is sporting a massive 40.4% usage rate through his first two games of the season. With that type of usage, Walker could go for 40 fantasy points, even in 25-28 minutes against a tough Philadelphia defense. Of course, Boston will remain without Jayson Tatum, which makes Jaylen Brown viable again. With Tatum off the floor this season, Brown is sporting a strong 32.8% usage rate, while averaging 1.26 fantasy points per minute in the split. Again, this isn’t an incredible matchup, but he is averaging 2.2 points per game off screens this season (12th-most), while the 76ers are coughing up a league-worst 8.1 points per game off screens, as well as the second-highest field goal percentage off the play type (52.0%).
Joel Embiid is finally $10,000 on DK, but I still absolutely want to play him. We just watched him dominate this Boston interior, scoring 42 points to go along with 10 rebounds and two assists. He’s been a legitimate MVP candidate so far this season, while sporting a 31.3% usage rate and nearly 1.60 fantasy points per minute. Boston’s frontcourt doesn’t have anyone to slow him down, while the Celtics are also allowing the sixth-highest field goal percentage at the rim (66.6%). Boston is also coughing up 5.7 post-up points per contest, the seventh-most in the league, which obviously bodes well for Embiid, who is averaging a league-leading 8.0 post-up points per contest. The rest of the 76ers are fine but not outstanding options, though Ben Simmons will likely give you a strong floor, especially with his price dropping. However, I question if he has slate-breaking upside, as he’s attempted less than 10 shots in seven of his last 10 games. Finally, Seth Curry is set to return to the lineup tonight, though he might not see his normal minutes after his conditioning is apparently in question after missing five games.
Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors
TOR -2.5, total: 220.5
It’s honestly the same story for the Heat as it was Wednesday. Jimmy Butler is once again out, while Tyler Herro (neck) is listed as questionable again. If Herro can’t play, Kendrick Nunn remains a viable play, despite the price increase. He’s played 27, 34 and 35 minutes over the last three games with Herro sidelined. During that same span, Goran Dragic does lead Miami with a 28.5% usage rate, while Bam Adebayo is right behind him at 27.4%. All three are very strong options if Herro is out, though Adebayo remains a strong play regardless. With both Butler and Herro off the floor this season, Adebayo sees a three% bump in usage, while averaging 1.44 fantasy points per minute. It is pretty simple, honestly. If Herro is out again, feel free to go right back to Dragic and Nunn, while Bam remains a very solid play no matter what.
Toronto, on the other hand, could be without a key piece, as Pascal Siakam is questionable to play with a groin injury. Siakam is averaging 35.4 minutes per game this season so his absence would loom large and open up minutes for others. If Siakam is ruled out, Chris Boucher becomes possibly a bit safer, as we saw the downside last game. However, Boucher’s minutes should be rock solid if Siakam is out, while someone like Norman Powell could get more run if the Raptors play OG Anunoby at the power forward position more in this game. With Siakam off the floor this season, Powell sees a near three% bump in usage, while Kyle Lowry’s assist rate jumps all the way up to 27%. I really never have an issue with Lowry or Fred VanVleet when they are under $8,000, and that would especially hold true if Toronto is without Siakam for this game.
Atlanta Hawks @ Minnesota Timberwolves
ATL -6.5, total: 222
This game has some serious potential for fantasy, as it features two top-10 teams in terms of pace, while the defenses certainly leave plenty to be desired, too. Trae Young has now scored over 50 fantasy points in each of his last three games, recording at least 10 assists in each of those contests. Of course, Young continues to dominate the usage, sporting a 31.7% usage rate, while his 7.9 average minutes of possession per game are tied for the third-most in the NBA. In this spot, Young has as much upside as anyone on the slate, but apparently so does Clint Capela, who is coming off an insane game against the Pistons. Capela continued his hot streak, scoring 27 points to go along with 26 rebounds, two assists and five blocks. He’s been unreal as of late, recording at least 10 rebounds in each of his last 10 games, while averaging 49.4 fantasy points per game over his last five. The price has skyrocketed but I still have some interest, especially when pairing him with Young, as the Hawks run as much pick-and-roll as any team in the league, meaning the two correlate well. Minnesota, meanwhile, is also allowing the most points per game off putbacks this season (7.7), while Capela is averaging 3.3 putback points per game, the third-most in the league.
Meanwhile, De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish are both questionable again, while Bogdan Bogdanovic and Danilo Gallinari will remain out. Now that he is priced appropriately at $5,900, Kevin Huerter is a very fine play if just one of Hunter or Reddish sit. But if both end up sitting again, he becomes an elite mid-range play, as Huerter has played 36, 41 and 39 minutes over the last three games.
For Minnesota, I really am only targeting D'Angelo Russell, and I’m likely only doing that as a bringback play. He certainly isn’t cheap but there if definitely upside here, as he’s sporting a 30.5% usage rate with both Karl-Anthony Towns and Ricky Rubio off the floor this season, both of whom will remain out for the Timberwolves Friday. Minnesota started Josh Okogie last game and while he’s a very low usage guy, he should play 25-30 minutes in a strong matchup and is under $4,000 on DraftKings. We saw Jared Vanderbilt’s minutes, despite starting, come back down 18 last game, while he didn’t step on the floor for the entire fourth quarter.
Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs
DAL -2.5, total: 222
bv
Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis remain a bit too cheap in my opinion, especially Porzingis, who has been very good since making his season debut. He is coming off his best game of the young season and is facing a Spurs defense that is allowing the sixth-highest field goal percentage in basketball off spot-ups (42.1%), as well as the eighth-most points per possession (1.08). He has a healthy 27.2% usage rate and 29% rebounding rate so far, while the Spurs rank 28th against rim protectors and 26th against skilled centers. Of course, I will have some exposure to Luka, too. Josh Richardson, Dorian Finney-Smith and Maxi Kleber all remain out for the Mavericks and Porzingis’ return hasn’t really hurt Luka, who is posting a 29% usage rate, 36% assist rate and 29% rebounding rate with KP on the floor this season.
For the Spurs, I am very interested in DeMar DeRozan in tournaments, especially considering he is coming off an awful game. His price has dropped by $600 and he is now under $8,000 on DraftKings, while this matchup offers DeRozan some sneaky potential. The Mavericks have struggled to protect the rim this season, allowing a 68.3% field goal percentage from within four feet of the basket, the fourth-highest mark in basketball. That could bode well for DeRozan, who is averaging 18.4 drives per game on the year, good for the fifth-most in the NBA. His peripherals have been much better this season, especially since he’s seeing a ton of playing time at the power forward position. Outside of DeRozan, both Dejounte Murray and Keldon Johnson are fine, but I still don’t want to play LaMarcus Aldridge, even all the way down at $5,500.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Clippers
LAC -13, total: 220
If there was one game that I’d consider full-fading Friday, it would easily be this one. The Clippers are playing great basketball right now and are 13-point home favorites against the Thunder. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George should be able to do whatever they want here and will likely go overlooked on this huge slate, but I just don’t love the fact that they are such huge favorites here. Meanwhile, Serge Ibaka’s price tag is still way too high over on DraftKings, while no one else on this Clippers team is a great option tonight.
For the Thunder, Al Horford will remain out, which means Isaiah Roby should continue to get strong run. In four starts this season, Roby is averaging 13.5 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.3 steals in 26 minutes. His price has come up to $5,000 but he still is PF/C eligible which helps a lot. Roby isn’t an awful option here, while I do have some interest in Darius Bazley, who has seen his price drop down to $4,900, which is the lowest his price has been at all season long.
Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns
PHO -1.5, total: 218.5
Denver has been pretty simple for me this season. I have played Nikola Jokic on seemingly every slate because, well, why wouldn’t you? He’s just so involved, averaging a triple-double on the season while posting a 28.9% usage rate, 33% rebounding rate and 29% assist rate, while averaging 1.65 fantasy points per minute. Jokic is still averaging a league-leading 104.9 touches per game and interestingly enough, he leads the team in points per game off screens (2.1). The Suns have been a strong defense this season, but they are coughing up the third-most points per game off screens (6.3), as well as the fourth-highest field goal percentage (46.0%). Michael Porter could make his return in this game, which would hurt players like Will Barton and Paul Millsap, making Denver even less appealing outside of Jokic. Jamal Murray’s price tag is intriguing, but he just hasn’t been all that great this season, sporting a weak 11% assist rate, while averaging just 0.92 fantasy points per minute.
Meanwhile, Deandre Ayton remains my favorite Phoenix option. He’s starting to come on of late, scoring 44.5 and 62.2 fantasy points over the last two games. Because the Suns are playing so much slower and running more half court sets with Chris Paul in the mix, Ayton is benefiting, as he’s averaging four post-up possessions per game, while his 30.4% frequency rate off post-ups is the fourth-highest mark in the league. He is also averaging 18.5 rebounding chances per game, while converting nearly 67% of those chances into rebounds. Paul once again finds himself in that low $7,000 price range, though the ceiling isn’t really there. He’ll be sure to get you 32-37 fantasy points, but he’s rarely reached the 40-point mark this season. If choosing a second Phoenix player from this game, I actually think I’d look to Cameron Johnson, who continues to start. He played 28 minutes last game and is just $4,400, while offering you position flexibility. The Nuggets defense has not been sharp this season, coughing up the eighth-most points per game to spot-up shooters (28.8), as well as the fifth-highest frequency rate off the play type (25.6%). Johnson, meanwhile, is averaging 7.5 points per game off spot-ups, the third-highest number in basketball.
New York Knicks @ Sacramento Kings
SAC -4, total: 218.5
I would say that this is a pace-up spot for the Knicks, but considering they rank dead last in pace, every game is a pace-up spot. Julius Randle remains the top option from this team, though his touches and rebounding chances per game have dropped a bit over the last week or so. Still, this is a favorable matchup for Randle, as the Kings rank 29th against skilled centers and 28th against rebounders this season. Randle is also quietly operating out of isolation a lot, averaging 3.4 isolation points per game this season, the 12th-most in the league. The Kings have been an awful isolation defense this year, surrendering the second-most points per game off the play type (9.1). RJ Barrett is $6,800 on DraftKings, a very solid price tag, especially when you consider that he and Randle are both averaging 37.1 minutes per game, tied for the second-most in the league.
Interestingly enough, I really don’t love the Kings here. New York is playing at the slowest pace in the league and have actually been a top-five defensive unit so far this season. De'Aaron Fox is probably going to give you 40 fantasy points, but he is pushing $9,000 and on this slate, I’d rather spend down for guys like Brogdon, Oladipo or Russell, who all offer similar floors and ceilings, while finding themselves in much better spots. Richaun Holmes is probably the only player that interests me, facing a New York team that is allowing 3.40 blocks per game to opposing centers, the second-most in the league. And if Hassan Whiteside remains out, Holmes should continue to play huge minutes.
