NBA first look: Game-by-game DFS breakdown for Feb. 28

There are eight total games around the NBA Sunday, but only seven on the main DFS slate, as the Bucks and Clippers take the stage in a Sunday matinee showdown, and the Bulls/Raptors game was postponed to comply with health and safety protocols. For the purpose of this article, I will be focusing on the seven-game main slate.

As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means he didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.

Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker. 

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Washington Wizards @ Boston Celtics

BOS -6.5, total: 231.5

The Wizards enter this game on the second leg of a back-to-back. We’ve become accustomed to Russell Westbrook sitting out in these scenarios, but he played both legs of the Wizards’ last back-to-back, so we can tentatively expect him to suit up Sunday, especially when you consider the fact that he may be the only healthy point guard on the roster. If so, he becomes an elite play, having posted two consecutive triple-doubles and five in his last seven games. I’ll continue to attack Kemba Walker’s ineptitude on defense, especially with a point guard like Westbrook.

Bradley Beal is equally viable, and while he may see more Jaylen Brown on the defensive end, his 35.5% usage rate negates any unfavorable matchup. If Westbrook ends up inactive, Beal becomes one of the strongest plays on the entire slate at under $10,000 on DraftKings. This would also benefit Jerome Robinson, as he would become a de facto point guard if Westbrook sits out, assuming Raul Neto misses Sunday’s game after leaving Saturday’s game with an injury while Ish Smith remains out.

Unless Westbrook is out, there simply isn’t enough volume and usage to justify spending over $6,000 for Rui Hachimura. I’d rather take a shot on Davis Bertans at $4,800 in a tournament given his upside he showed from three (5-11) in 20 minutes Saturday.

This is a phenomenal spot to go back to Jayson Tatum after a few down games, especially if Brown ends up sitting out with knee soreness. Even if he’s active, it’s hard not to love the matchup for Tatum, as the WIzards rank 25th or worse against three of his four archetypes per advanced DvP (primary ball-handler (25th), scorer (27th), crafty finisher (28th)). If Brown ends up suiting up, he makes for an appealing play as well, albeit a bit riskier than Tatum given the lingering soreness in his knee. 

Walker is also a fine play if Brown suits up, but gets a nice boost if he ends up sitting out, sporting a 33.7% usage rate, 30.5% assist rate, and 1.14 DKP/min without Brown this season. This could also open up minutes on the wing for Semi Ojeleye and Grant Williams. Of the two, I would prefer whoever starts.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Houston Rockets

MEM -3, total: 221.5

Victor Oladipo has already been ruled out of this game. That paves the way for both John Wall and Eric Gordon to soak up the vacated usage, as Wall has a 35% usage rate to Gordon’s 27.9% with Oladipo and Christian Wood out since Jan. 14 (the date of the James Harden trade). Both are viable at their respective prices, but my lean is Gordon for $2,300 cheaper on DraftKings simply based on lineup construction. The same can be said on FanDuel, where Wall is priced up to $8,800.

This should also open up more opportunities for Sterling Brown and David Nwaba, the latter of whom will likely start. Given the fact that he’s moved to small forward on FanDuel, Nwaba becomes an intriguing value piece. The same argument can be made against Brown, as his position change to point guard on FanDuel makes him virtually unplayable.

For the Grizzlies, it’s hard not to like Jonas Valanciunas in this matchup. While I like to target him against more traditional centers for minutes security, this is a matchup that he can dominate in well under 30 minutes, as the Rockets rank 24th against rebounders and 29th against scorers. Ja Morant is also viable, but I prefer to target Valanciunas at a similar price.

Grayson Allen has been ruled out for the Grizzlies, which could open up a starting spot for either De'Anthony Melton or Desmond Bane. They carry some intrigue as price plays, but neither of them should be considered essential value pieces with Dillon Brooks back in the lineup. Speaking of Brooks, he’s a viable tournament option at $5,500 given his volume-heavy playstyle and the fact that he’s seen 30-plus minutes in two of his last three games.

Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers

LAL -3, total: 222.5

LeBron James is coming off of a near-70-DK-point outing, yet hasn’t been priced up to $11,000 once since the absence of Anthony Davis. With this to continue, it’s hard not to love the King in a pace-up matchup with a close spread. Being the highest-priced player on the entire slate, he’s also my top overall spend-up if you choose to go that route.

If you choose to fade James, I like the idea of getting Lakers exposure via Dennis Schroder, who returned from a health-and-safety-protocol-related absence last game. While he only shot 43% from the field in that game, he posted 22 points in 32 minutes and should continue to maintain a significant role in the offense while his defensive abilities will certainly be needed against Stephen Curry.

The other side of this game is a bit more appealing against a Lakers’ defense without Davis, making both Curry and Draymond Green viable targets. Green, in particular, still feels like a bargain at $7,500 on DraftKings given his recent form, as he’s topped 45 DK points in three consecutive games and is coming off of an 11-point, 12-rebound, 19-assist triple-double that resulted in 61 DK points.

Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat

MIA -6, total: 221

This game carries more injury implications than any other on the slate. For the Hawks, Trae Young is currently listed as questionable with a pair of injuries, while Cam Reddish is on track to miss his third consecutive game. Should Young miss this game, it’d be hard not to love Rajon Rondo for near-minimum price, even if we only project him to see 20-25 minutes, as he holds a 35.6% assist rate with Young out this season. This would also be a massive boost to Kevin Huerter, especially with Reddish expected to sit. Huerter would operate as the back-up point guard and provides a heap of scoring upside out of the backcourt compared to Rondo.

In terms of the frontcourt, Young’s potential absence would have me off of Clint Capela, but would give a nice boost to John Collins, who sees a 26.5% usage rate with Young, Reddish, Bogdan Bogdanovic and De'Andre Hunter off the floor. Danilo Gallinari would be the final piece to target, as a volume-heavy player like him is bound to soak up a heap of the vacated usage.

For the Heat, Bam Adebayo is listed as probably while Tyler Herro is questionable after missing his last three games with a right hip bruise. Regardless of his status, it’s hard not to love Jimmy Butler in this matchup. Over his last 10 games, Butler has averaged 22.3 points, 9.1 assists and 8.8 rebounds per game and would only see those numbers inflate in a pace-up spot that offers more possessions.

Goran Dragic sticks out as the other Heat player that I have interest in, as his sub-$6,000 price tag leaves room for a nice per-dollar ceiling in this matchup, especially if Tyler Herro sits off, as he’s coming off of a 26-point outing in 33 minutes against the Jazz.

New York Knicks @ Detroit Pistons

NYK -0.5, total: 212.5

The pace of this game figures to be extremely slow and this game figures to be pretty ugly, but there should be some opportunities to take advantage of. On the second leg of a back-to-back, there’s an outside shot that we see Derrick Rose sit out, especially after seeing 38 minutes Saturday. If he ends up sitting out and Elfrid Payton remains out, it’ll be hard to not make Immanuel Quickley a core play. In the situation with both point guards out, Quickley holds a 29% usage rate, 25.1% assist rate, and 1.16 DKP/min. If he can be counted on for 25-plus minutes, he’ll be the best value play on the slate.

You can also get away with Julius Randle in this spot, as he holds a 29.4% usage rate with Rose and Payton out and steps into a matchup against a Pistons defense that ranks 23rd or worse against six of his seven archetypes, per aDvP.

For the Pistons, it’s harder to get excited about this matchup based on how good the Knicks defense has been (third in the NBA in defensive efficiency, 106.3), but you can still get away with Saben Lee for $4,600 on DraftKings in a tournament given his 35-DK-point upside. Jerami Grant also remains cheap at $7,600, making him a fine cash-game target, but the pace and defense in this game have me looking elsewhere in tournaments.

Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves

PHX -10.5, total: 224

While the Timberwolves players were popular targets Saturday night, it’ll be hard to go completely back to the well Sunday, as they come in as massive underdogs against a top-10 defense in terms of defensive efficiency. 

Karl-Anthony Towns is always viable at his price, especially without D'Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley, but if spending all the way up, I prefer all three of the other players priced at or above $10,000 on DraftKings Sunday. My sole interest in the Timberwolves comes from Jaylen Nowell, who saw nearly 26 minutes off the bench on Saturday in Beasley’s first absence. In those 26 minutes, he posted 15 points, five boards, and four assists on nine total shot attempts. Given the fact that he’s still $3,800, he makes for a viable value that likely won’t carry much ownership.

On the Phoenix side, this is an extremely exploitable matchup, but it won’t affect how I target this team. Chris Paul is always a rock-solid cash-game play that comes at minimal ownership, as his price remains under $8,000 after two straight outings over 50 DK points.

Both Deandre Ayton and Devin Booker are viable in this matchup as well, but I would avoid rostering them both together, as their ceiling games typically come at the expense of one another.

Charlotte Hornets @ Sacramento Kings

SAC -2, total: 237.5

The last game of the day is also one of the most appealing matchups on the slate, as LaMelo Ball should have his way in transition against a fast-paced, defensively deficient Kings team. His $8,800 price tag on DraftKings makes him harder to play, but his $7,600 price tag on FanDuel makes him one of my favorite overall point guards on the slate over there.

Outside of Ball, you can target Terry Rozier in tournaments given the matchup and his sheer upside, but his last three games have served as harsh reminders that he still carries an incredibly low floor for his price if his shot isn’t falling. A similar line of thought can be used for Gordon Hayward, whose peripheral production has taken a hit since Ball has come onto the scene. He’s still a fine play at his price, but the floor is lower than it was earlier in the season.

If Cody Zeller misses his second straight game, I’ll be going right back to the well with P.J. Washington, who drew the start at center in his absence. He posted 43 DK points on the back of 15 points, 10 rebounds, and four steals while dealing with foul trouble that prevented him from logging 30 minutes. Bismack Biyombo would also be a viable put, if and only if he starts.

For the Kings, you can get away with De'Aaron Fox for $8,600, but I simply prefer others at the position at a cheaper price, like Chris Paul. The only other Kings that I have my eyes on are Harrison Barnes ($6,500 on both sites) and Richaun Holmes. Barnes profiles more as a safe cash play with upside in this matchup, as he’s locked into heavy minutes and has topped 20 raw points in two consecutive games. Holmes is an elite GPP option, as the Pistons rank 29th against crafty finishers and 30th against rebounders. If we can count on 30-plus minutes like we saw last game, Holmes has slate-breaking upside at what should be extremely low ownership.