NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Wednesday presents us with our largest NBA DFS slate of the week so far, as we have 10 total games with a heap of injury news to break down.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is a first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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New York Knicks @ Orlando Magic
NYK -4, total: 209.5
The Magic remain banged up with Cole Anthony already ruled out, while Evan Fournier and James Ennis remain questionable. Over the last two games, however, they’ve gotten the luxury of having Michael Carter-Williams back. At $4,900, it’s hard to pass on this value, as he’s logged over 60 total fantasy points through his first two games and with Anthony, Fournier, Markelle Fultz and Aaron Gordon out, he has a usage rate over 30% in those 56.8 minutes. He’s also averaged 6.5 seconds per touch over those two games, which, if expanded over the full season, would lead the entire NBA.
Nikola Vucevic is still an elite play, especially given the fact that he’s posting up over 14 times per game, which would lead the league over the length of the full season. The issue, however, is the fact that his price has reached a point where you’ll have to make a choice between him and someone else in this range, instead of being able to pair him with someone like you were able to when he was in the $8,000-$9,000 range.
Outside of those two, Terrence Ross becomes viable if Evan Fournier gets ruled out, but given his one-dimensional production, he’d be hard to trust if Fournier is in. That situation would also make it hard to trust Fournier himself with a likely minutes cap on tap.
For the Knicks, Julius Randle deserves consideration given his recent form, as he’s coming off a 44-point outing against the Hawks. At $9,500, he’s one of the players that is worthy of a conversation when considering players around Nikola Vucevic. Nerlens Noel still has appeal, but he’s approaching a price (especially on FanDuel) where he’s not a necessary value due to the fact that he continues to salvage his games with stocks. If he has a down-game from a steals and blocks perspective, it’ll be hard for him to get you there at his price.
Unlike the Knicks frontcourt, this backcourt is impossible to target as both high-usage guards in Derrick Rose and Immanuel Quickley continue to play alongside each other way too much to establish reliability in terms of fantasy production.
Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics
BOS -4, total: 223.5
On the second leg of a back-to-back, it can be expected that Kemba Walker sits, as has become routine so far this season. In this scenario, both Jayson Tatum ($8,700) and Jaylen Brown ($7,900) feel too cheap on DraftKings given the matchup. The pace of this game should provide additional possessions and given the fact that both players are shooting over 20 times per game, the upside is astronomical.
Payton Pritchard burned people last time Walker sat out, but at $4,200, it’ll be hard to avoid him on this slate, especially if his ownership is projected to be lower than it was on the aforementioned slate. With Jeff Teague virtually phased out of this rotation, Pritchard should see at least 25 minutes in a pace-up matchup with the exploitable Trae Young. While there is still a scary floor here, his ceiling is higher than most options at his price tag.
Both Tristan Thompson and Robert Williams are viable if Daniel Theis is ruled out for the second consecutive game, but neither are in must-play territory given the depth at the center position. Of the two, Williams is my preferred option in tournaments, while Thompson profiles as a stronger cash-game play. Semi Ojeleye has seen 30-plus minutes in three of the last four games and remains cheap at $3,400, making him another viable value in a plus matchup.
Trae Young has been under 40 fantasy points in three consecutive games after scoring 50 or more almost regularly, but given how the Celtics struggle to defend shooters off of handoffs this season, this could be a good bounceback spot. His usage rate is still over 31% on the season and his 1.32 DKP/min clip is still elite for his price-tag, making him a fine run-back option if you want multiple Celtics. The same can be said for John Collins, as $6,900 feels too cheap given his upside. HIs rebounding output has been rather volatile, but he’s still averaging over a fantasy point per minute. Clint Capela is also cheap at $7,500, who’s leading the NBA in rebounding chances per game and averaging 1.31 DKP/min.
Houston Rockets @ Philadelphia 76ers
PHI -11, total: 225
While the 76ers are a tough matchup, John Wall priced at $7,800 is still too cheap with Victor Oladipo, Eric Gordon and Christian Wood slated to miss his game, given the fact that his usage rate without them this season is over 38%. This should also open up a ton of playing time for the Houston value plays who found themselves to be wildly popular in their last game. The difference, however, is the matchup with the Sixers compared to their last game against the Wizards. Because of this and the fact that the value has been priced up, it’s hard for me to stomach the ancillary pieces in this game outside of David Nwaba, who’s still priced at a reasonable tag of $4,300 and has multi-position eligibility and a heap of peripheral upside.
I’ve officially listed DeMarcus Cousins, who’s failed to produce at a reasonable price tag for far too long. If you have any interest in my thoughts on Cousins this evening, I point you to my tweet from Monday regarding this same topic.
Joel Embiid is currently listed as probable and while he was a late scratch Monday, he looks ready to re-enter the lineup Wednesday. At $10,800, there is certainly all the merit in the world to playing him in this matchup, as he’s been arguably the most dominant player in the NBA this season and gets a pace-up spot here.
Outside of Embiid, Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons are still viable, but they obviously fall more into the tournament tier with Embiid healthy. Of the two, Harris is my preferred option at $7,600 with a 23.9% usage rate and 1.09 DKP/min this season.
Indiana Pacers @ Minnesota Timberwolves
IND -6, total: 227.5
Domantas Sabonis has been priced up to $9,700 on DraftKings, making it hard to consider him anything more than a possible option in this price range considering all of the other options around his price. He does have a 26% usage rate and posts 1.26 DKP/min, making him a fine play even at his elevated price in this matchup.
I do, however, prefer to save $2,000 and opt for Malcolm Brogdon, who’s been frustrating DFS players over the last week, but given his team-high 26.5% usage rate this season in a phenomenal matchup, he profiles as a super-strong cash-game play.
For the Timberwolves, both Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards feel a touch too cheap. Edwards has proven to be able to work alongside Towns this season and led the team last game with 20 total field-goal attempts, giving him massive upside at his suppressed price. Towns is also cheap given his 1.32 DKP/min clip without D’Angelo Russell in the lineup this season. The only concern, however, is the fact that he may be on a loose minutes cap with it being his first back-to-back since his return from COVID-19.
Outside of those two, Malik Beasley is the only other player I’d consider for $7,100, but there are many superior plays around his price range.
Denver Nuggets @ Washington Wizards
DEN -3.5, total: 232.5
The Nuggets come in on the second leg of a back-to-back and Monte Morris is questionable once again, while Paul Millsap remains out. This leaves the wing extremely thin, which thrusts JaMychal Green, Michael Porter and Facundo Campazzo into the spotlight once again. Of the three, Campazzo at $3,500 is my favorite option if Morris is out. He saw 40 minutes Tuesday and posted over 10x value, which would likely make him the most popular value option on the slate. Porter and Green burned people on Tuesday, but I’m OK going back to the well on Green. Porter, however, is hard for me to stomach given his recent form. It’s gotten so bad that he failed to record a single point on Tuesday.
Regardless of Morris’ status, I plan on playing Jamal Murray in this spot. He’s a player to smash when he’s hot, and he’s currently sporting a 26.7% usage rate and over a fantasy point per minute over the last 10 days. At his $7,100 price tag, his ceiling in this matchup is arguably the highest of any player in this price range.
Nikola Jokic is obviously an elite option in this spot, as the Wizards have literally zero shot at keeping up with him, given his 30% usage rate, 38.3% assist rate, 18.3% rebounding rate, and 1.60 DKP/min clip this season.
On the other side, both Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal are viable against a rather attackable defense, but Beal is my preferred option of the two, especially at a cheaper price on DraftKings. While Westbrook has shown a higher ceiling in terms of peripherals, Beal has demonstrated a fantasy-point-upside that we haven’t seen Westbrook match this season and much of it has to do with the fact that he’s the league-leader in usage rate.
Detroit Pistons @ Chicago Bulls
CHI -4.5, total: 222.5
The Bulls got Wendell Carter back last game and he checks into this favorable matchup at $5,500 without Lauri Markkanen. The Pistons rank 28th against rebounders, per our advanced DvP tool, and Carter has a 32% rebounding rate without Markkanen and Otto Porter this season, giving him a reasonable ceiling, but he doesn’t feel like a necessity if paying down at the center position.
Zach LaVine above $9,000 is still a viable play, but given the other plays at this price tag and even below, I’ll take my chances elsewhere.
For the Pistons, Jerami Grant has massive bounceback potential in this matchup, as the Bulls rank 28th against crafty finishers and 29th against scorers, per advanced DvP. He should remain relatively low-owned, making him a great mid-tier target. The same can be said about Mason Plumlee, who, regardless of how great his form is, likely will be a rather unpopular play at $7,200 on DraftKings and $7,300 on FanDuel. Over his last three games, however, he’s averaged 15.3 points, 10 rebounds and 7.7 assists per game with a triple-double over that span, giving him a ton of upside in an exploitable matchup.
My favorite Piston, however, is Delon Wright, especially on DraftKings where his $6,000 price tag is $1,000 cheaper than it is on FanDuel. As the only point guard that sees significant playing time, he’s seeing 35-plus minutes with regularity and has posted a 29.9% assist rate and 1.03 DKP/min over the last two weeks without Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose on the court. Given his price and expected ownership, he comes in as one of my favorite overall dollar-for-dollar plays.
You can get away with both Saddiq Bey and Josh Jackson, who should both see extended run and an uptick in usage without Griffin, but both are still extremely volatile options.
Portland Trail Blazers @ New Orleans Pelicans
NOP -3, total: 232.5
The Blazers step into this game on the second leg of a back-to-back. In the first game, we saw Enes Kanter grab 21 total rebounds, hauling in 15 in his first 20 minutes of play. I try to target Kanter against traditional bigs that sit around the rim, which is exactly what Steven Adams does, making Kanter an appealing play, especially for $6,600 on FanDuel.
Both guards for Portland (Damian Lillard and Gary Trent) are viable, as Lillard has posted 30 or more raw points in four of his last five games while Trent hasn’t scored less than 14 points in a single game since CJ McCollum went down. Anfernee Simons is a worthwhile value punt, as he’s averaged over 23 minutes per game over his last five games, but whether or not you’ll need to go there remains to be seen.
For the Pelicans, Zion Williamson continues to shoot efficiently, shooting over 50% in 12 of his last 13 games. The rebounding numbers remain underwhelming, but he’s shown overall peripheral upside lately to provide enough optimism to roster at $8,200 in this matchup given his 1.37 DKP/min clip over the last two weeks, especially now operating as the ball handler in pick-and-roll sets more than the roll-man.
Brandon Ingram remains viable, especially if you want to stack this game and/or fade Williamson, while Josh Hart provides cheap exposure to this game with a ton of peripheral upside. Lonzo Ball also feels safe at $6,500, especially considering the fact that he’s averaged 1.10 DKP/min over the last two weeks.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies
MEM -7, total: 223.5
The Thunder saw Theo Maledon return to the lineup, albeit with a disappointing stat-line, Tuesday. With his return and the (thin) chance that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander returns, we could see the Thunder begin to build back their rotation. With that said, it feels safer to assume SGA will be out. In that case, it’s still going to be too hard for me to get to Maledon or a Hamidou Diallo (especially now coming off of the bench).
Al Horford (if active) is still my favorite option on this team, as he’s posted a 25.8% usage rate, 30.2% assist rate, and 1.26 DKP/min clip over the last two weeks. If he sits, both Darius Bazley and Isaiah Roby see a bump, with Roby being a legitimate value play if he draws a start.
The Grizzlies played Tuesday and Ja Morant’s price dropped after a 46-DK-point outing, while Jonas Valanciunas finds himself in a perfect spot after a disappointing game Tuesday. With the Thunder allowing the fourth-most post-up points in the league (6.7 per game), he’s in a great spot to redeem himself at an even cheaper price. Both are elite options, especially if you script this game to stay close.
Outside of those two, you can get away with a sprinkle of Dillon Brooks and Grayson Allen, but neither has shown high-enough ceilings this season to really make them necessities in a tournament. They operate better as value-fillers in your last guard/forward spot.
Miami Heat @ Golden State Warriors
MIA -0.5, total: 223.5
Both Stephen Curry and Draymond Green have been playing out of their minds as of late, as Curry has bumped his season-long scoring average over 30 points per game, while Green has posted an absurd 41% assist rate and 1.18 DKP/min over the last two weeks. Green, in particular, has continued to come in criminally under-owned on larger slates, making him one of my favorite tournament targets at $6,800.
Both Kelly Oubre and Andrew Wiggins are relatively easy fades in this matchup unless you’re running multiple lineups and think Golden State wins with a Curry floor game (which feels unlikely).
Jimmy Butler has posted a usage rate of 24.4% and an assist rate of 41.3% over the last two weeks and has been a walking triple-double threat, elevating his price to above $9,000 on FanDuel. With that said, this is a massive pace-up spot in a game that should stay close, making him an extremely attractive play on both sites. Bam Adebayo is equally as appealing in this game, posting a 24.4% usage rate, 25.9% assist rate and 1.25 DKP/min over that same span.
Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro have upside at their prices in this matchup, making them both appealing options if you choose to fade both Butler and Adebayo. Of the two, Nunn is my preferred option given his minutes security with Goran Dragic out.
Utah Jazz @ Los Angeles Clippers
UTA -3.5, total: 227.5
Paul George has been ruled out, and Kawhi Leonard remains questionable after both having missed the previous two games.
Over that span, Lou Williams has taken the reigns on offense, but has been priced up to $6,900 on DraftKings in a difficult matchup. If both are out, he makes sense in tournaments, but wouldn’t be as strong of a cash-game play as he has been over the last couple of games. The same can be said about Marcus Morris, who led the team with a 30% usage rate in the last game and scored over 20 points in the first half. While his $5,700 price tag is certainly appealing, the matchup doesn’t do him any justice.
If Leonard remains out, Serge Ibaka is an appealing option at $5,200 in a game where the Clippers will need him on the court to combat the size of Rudy Gobert in the post. If Leonard is active, however, this team as a whole becomes an easy fade outside of him.
Mike Conley is questionable for the Jazz and if he ends up sitting again, we can go right back to the well with Jordan Clarkson and Joe Ingles. Both have received price boosts, but Clarkson is coming off a 40-point outburst and is a blowout-run candidate if that’s how you’re scripting this game, while Ingles has taken over as a primary ball-handler with the point guard out.
Both Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert are viable at their respective prices, as Mitchell has posted a 33% usage rate and just under 90 touches per game with Conley out over the last few games. Gobert’s price at $7,200 gives him a level of safety that’s hard to find elsewhere on the slate, especially relative to how low his ownership will likely be.
