Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Thirteen NBA games on a Wednesday night? Sign me up. The NBA season is finally here, and the season’s second DFS slate is a massive one. Pricing is pretty soft for the most part, making it rather easy to play whoever you want. Let’s go over each game and highlight who stands out the most.
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Charlotte Hornets @ Cleveland Cavaliers
CHA -2.5, total: 213.5
The regular NBA fan might not love this game, but I think it is very interesting for fantasy purposes.
Let’s start with Cleveland, which will now have a full season with Andre Drummond at center. Drummond was still very good for fantasy with the Cavs and now the team is without Tristan Thompson, who signed with Boston. This should solidify Drummond’s minutes while increasing his upside, as he averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute with Thompson off the court last season, while his usage rate jumped up by about seven percent. Meanwhile, his rebounding rate went from 24% to 39% with Thompson on the bench. He gets a really good matchup with a weak Charlotte interior that surrendered the sixth-most points per game off putbacks a season ago (6.8). That bodes well for Drummond, who averaged 4.0 putback points per game in 2019-20, the second-most in basketball. The Hornets also allowed the third-most offensive rebounds per game (10.9), setting Drummond up for a very productive evening. He’s my favorite player from this game and one of my top centers on the slate.
This was also an advantageous matchup for Kevin Love, who averaged 17 points, 11 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game on 50% shooting against the Hornets last year. Charlotte surrendered the fourth-highest field goal percentage to post-up players a season ago at 52.9%, an area where Love averaged nearly four points per game. The Hornets also allowed the fourth-most real points per game to opposing power forwards and nothing they did in the offseason suggests that they’ll be a much better interior defense this season. Of course, Love might sit out this game with a calf injury, which would propel Larry Nance to a strong play. With both Thompson and Love off the floor last season, Nance averaged over a fantasy point per minute, while sporting a 30% rebound rate and 10% assist rate.
Cleveland’s backcourt is a bit tougher to project. The Cavs will likely start Collin Sexton and Darius Garland at the one and two. Sexton is a high usage player (27.1% USG% in 2019) and takes plenty of shots, averaging nearly 17 per game last year. His peripherals are usually lacking, however, which makes him a tough player to get too excited about. But with Matthew Dellavedova and Dante Exum out, as well as Kevin Porter, the Cavs are really short on ball-handlers. Garland is just $4,100, while rookie Isaac Okoro is just $3,400 and should see at least 30 minutes in this game.
The Hornets, meanwhile, just became a lot more interesting. Charlotte selected LaMelo Ball with the second pick of the draft, though it remains to be seen whether he’ll start or come off the bench to begin the season. The Hornets already have Devonte Graham and Terry Rozier in their backcourt, after all. Graham projects as the safest play, as Cleveland’s backcourt defense is arguably the worst in the league. The Cavs allowed the second-most points per possession to opposing pick-and-roll ball-handlers last year (0.93). We’ll see how much his usage goes down with the addition of both Ball and Gordon Hayward, who signed a massive deal in the offseason. Hayward is playing through a broken finger that could certainly impact his shooting in this game, making him more of a secondary play if you are looking to stack this game up.
New York Knicks @ Indiana Pacers
IND -8, total: 212.5
New head coach Tom Thibodeau has historically given his starters massive minutes over the course of his coaching career, making it important to see who is starting. He has hinted toward Elfrid Payton and Alec Burks starting in the backcourt, which means the only question mark is at center, as RJ Barrett and Julius Randle are locks at small and power forward. Mitchell Robinson or Nerlens Noel will start at center and while we know the upside that Robinson possesses, we also know the potential downside, especially with the Knicks having plenty of options in their frontcourt. I don’t love anyone from New York on this slate, but Randle seems to have a strong floor. He averaged 1.16 fantasy points per minute last year and could easily exceed his 32.5 minutes per game from last year with Thibs calling the shots now.
The Pacers, meanwhile, will get back All-Star Domantas Sabonis, who missed the entire bubble last year. Sabonis looked fantastic during the preseason, especially Friday night when he recorded 26 points and 11 rebounds in 27 minutes. If he can log 27 minutes in a preseason game, there’s a good chance Sabonis won’t face any minute restrictions for opening night. You are always going to get rebounds from Sabonis, who ranked fifth in the NBA in rebounding chances per game a season ago (20.4), while converting about 61% of those opportunities. Sabonis always profiles as a viable cash game play to me.
T.J. Warren is dealing with the same injury Sabonis has been recovering from (plantar fasciitis) and it could lead to some limitations out of the gate. Between that and the fact that the Pacers are finally healthy, he’s an avoid for me, despite his monster games during the bubble. The Pacers are likely to play faster under new head coach Nate Bjorkgren, which will bode well for Malcolm Brogdon and Victor Oladipo. Brogdon averaged a healthy 6.8 minutes of possession per game last year (9th-most) and still sported a near 26% usage rate when sharing the court with Oladipo last year. Both are perfectly fine plays at just above $6,000 on DraftKings.
Miami Heat @ Orlando Magic
MIA -4.5, total: 219
Anyone who listens to the FTN NBA Podcast knows how much I love Bam Adebayo. So to see him priced at just $7,300 on DraftKings is laughable, egregious and idiotic all at once. This was a player priced in the mid-$8,000 range during the bubble and someone who does a little bit of everything. Last year, Adebyao posted a near 22% usage rate, 15% assist rate and 30% rebounding rate. Because he contributes in every category, Bam is matchup-proof and extremely mispriced on this slate. I tend to just play whoever is cheaper between Bam and Jimmy Butler, which means I’ll be going to the former on this slate. That isn’t to say Butler is a bad play, but this game features two of the slowest teams in basketball, so I don’t see myself stacking. Goran Dragic is also extremely cheap at $5,100 on DK and was outstanding during his time in the bubble and in 16 postseason games, Dragic averaged 19.1 points, 4.1 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game. Finally, don’t sleep on Duncan Robinson, who should remain in the starting lineup. He is averaging over 16 real points per game against this Orlando team last year, a unit that surrendered 5.9 points per game off screens, the fifth-most in the league.
I always start with Nikola Vucevic from Orlando. He has one of the highest floors in all of fantasy, as he averaged nearly 44 fantasy points per game last year and scored at least 40 fantasy points in about 71% of his games. I do prefer other centers at his price range but by no means is he a bad play. If you are looking for a punt play to fit in the stars on this slate, Dwayne Bacon should start in place of James Ennis again and is minimum salary on DraftKings.
Washington Wizards @ Philadelphia 76ers
PHI -7.5, total: 229
The 76ers will likely garner plenty of attention Wednesday night, as they get a matchup with one of the friendliest defenses in fantasy. Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons are usually where you start with this team and both are great options on this slate. The Wizards ranked 24th against scorers and rebounders last year, as well as 21st against rim protectors, which are three of Embiid’s archetypes on our advanced DVP tool. They also allowed a 63.2% defended field goal percentage within six feet of the hoop, the sixth-worst rate in the league. Simmons, meanwhile, is a very safe play against a fast-paced Wizards team that could not defend point guards at all last season.
However, do not sleep on Seth Curry, who the 76ers acquired in the Josh Richardson deal. They also added Danny Green in a deal where they got rid of Al Horford’s contract, giving the team way more spacing and way more shooting. I am extremely intrigued by Curry this season, as he fills a massive void that hasn’t been addressed since the team moved on from JJ Redick. In 2018, the 76ers averaged a league-best 9.9 points per game off handoffs. However, that number dropped to 5.3 per game last year, as they simply didn’t have the shooters. Curry can handle the ball and run the dribble-handoff with Embiid and be effective in that role, as he averaged over four points per game off the play type. Meanwhile, the Wizards surrendered the second-most points per possession (1.02) and second-highest field goal percentage (46.1%) off handoffs.
Washington, meanwhile, will have a new backcourt in 2020. Russell Westbrook joins Bradley Beal and the two figure to dominate the usage on this team. Beal posted a 34.5% usage rate a season ago, the sixth-highest mark in the league. That number is sure to go down with Westbrook in the mix, though Westbrook, despite not expecting to be on a minutes limit, isn’t a priority for me against Simmons, who I believe is arguably the best defensive player in the NBA. The Wizards will be without second-year forward Rui Hachimura for this game, which will open up minutes for Davis Bertans, Troy Brown and rookie Deni Avdija. Head coach Scott Brooks said it’ll be a committee approach at the power forward position, so we’ll see who is listed as the starter.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics
MIL -3.5, total: 225.5
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the second-highest-priced player on the slate this evening and in a game with a close spread, he should project as one of the highest scorers. Boston is a strong defensive team, but the Celtics really don’t have the rim protection to slow Giannis down when he attacks the basket. And we know he’s going to haul in a ton of rebounds, as he averaged 20 rebounding chances per game a season ago, sixth-most in the NBA. It will definitely be interesting to see how Jrue Holiday looks in this offense, though he should certainly play better than Eric Bledsoe did last year. The rest of the Bucks aren’t core plays for me, but I don’t hate a potential value play in Donte DiVincenzo, who will start at shooting guard after the team didn’t land Bogdan Bogdanovic. He’s just $4,000 on DraftKings.
For the Celtics, Kemba Walker isn’t close to returning from his knee injury and with the team having lost Gordon Hayward, we should see Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown absolutely dominate the usage. With both players off the floor last season, Tatum sported a massive 36.5% usage rate, while averaging 1.40 DK points per minute. Brown, meanwhile, posted a 25% usage rate. Both are absolutely in play on this slate. If you are looking for value, the Celtics have been starting Javonte Green at point guard during the preseason, though it is very possible that Jeff Teague starts Wednesday night.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Toronto Raptors
TOR -4.5, total: 229.5
My top play from this game is easily Fred VanVleet. $6,700 on DraftKings is simply far too cheap, especially in a matchup with a Pelicans unit that coughed up the fourth-most real points per game to opposing shooting guards a season ago (24.3). Kyle Lowry is perfectly in play at $7,100, too, especially in a pace-up matchup against New Orleans. But if you take a look at our advanced DVP from a season ago, this sets up really nicely for VanVleet.
It remains to be seen what the minutes in the frontcourt will look like, as the Raptors lost both Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol in the offseason. The team brought in Aron Baynes to help fill that void, while Chris Boucher will see a much larger role in 2020-21. Boucher was an insanely efficient player last season, averaging 1.16 fantasy points per minute, as well as 18.1 points and just over 12 rebounds per 36 minutes. He is definitely someone to keep any eye on over the course of the season.
For the Pelicans, Zion Williamson looks to take a massive step forward in his second season in the league. He was plenty involved last year, sporting a 29.7% usage rate and 22% rebounding rate. This is a bad matchup on paper, but we have to remember that the duo of Gasol and Ibaka is no longer there. The spot might be better for Brandon Ingram, however, as the Raptors surrendered a league-high 32.6 spot-up points per game. That bodes well for Ingram, who averaged 5.4 spot-up points per game a season ago, good for the fifth-most in basketball.
Atlanta Hawks @ Chicago Bulls
ATL -2, total: 231.5
The Hawks are suddenly a very deep team and could be tough to decipher for fantasy purposes over the course of the season. They added Bojan Bogdanovic and Danilo Gallinari during free agency, as well as Kris Dunn. Meanwhile, Clint Capela, who they acquired last year, has still yet to make his Atlanta debut. That won’t happen Wednesday, however, as he’s been ruled out with Achilles soreness. This makes John Collins a lot more trustworthy, as he’ll play a lot more center in this game, but it also helps solidify the minutes for someone like Gallinari, who can slide over and play a lot more power forward. Collins is priced fairly and this is an intriguing matchup, as the Bulls were a poor pick-and-roll defense last year, coughing up the fifth-most points per game to opposing roll men (8.8). Collins, meanwhile, led all players in basketball in such points per game a season ago (6.7), while sporting a healthy 28% frequency rate off the play type. The Bulls were also bottom-five against two of Collins’ archetypes last year (skilled center, rebounder). Meanwhile, if Gallinari starts at the four, he becomes a solid value play at just $5,100.
I also don’t love Trae Young on this slate. He’s expensive, is in a tough spot and could see his touches come down a bit with the addition of Bogdan Bogdanovic.
For the Bulls, there are some cheap options that could be worth a look. Wendell Carter Jr. has been attempting more threes during the preseason and is under $5,000 on DraftKings. Meanwhile, Patrick Williams has been starting over Otto Porter during the preseason and is minimum salary. Keep an eye on the Bulls starting lineup on Wednesday afternoon.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets
HOU -7, total: 226
The Thunder are clearly giving the keys to the franchise to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who will handle a ton of usage in his second season. Oklahoma City is now without Chris Paul, Danilo Gallinari, Dennis Schroder and Steven Adams, replacing them with a handful of low-usage players. With Paul, Schroder and Gallo off the floor last season, SGA’s usage rate jumped from 23.1% to 31.6%, averaging a healthy 1.21 fantasy points per minute. DraftKings listed him as point guard only but he should have a strong combination of floor and ceiling in this game. If I’m not using SGA, the only other member of the Thunder that catches my eye is George Hill, and that is only if he starts. OKC could just start Gilgeous-Alexander at the one but if they start him at the two, Hill will start at point guard and is just $3,600.
San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies
MEM -2, total: 231.5
Ja Morant stands out as a really interesting tournament option here. He only averaged around 35 fantasy points per game during his rookie year, but he also only averaged 31 minutes per game, a number that should climb quite a bit in his sophomore season. His usage rate jumped up to just over 28% with Jaren Jackson off the floor last season, and the matchup with the Spurs isn’t too daunting. San Antonio surrendered the fourth-most points per game to opposing point guards last season (25.06). Meanwhile, with both Jackson and Justise Winslow out, Kyle Anderson should play around 30 minutes, making him a viable value play at $4,200.
I like Dejounte Murray in a pace-up spot against the Grizzlies. Derrick White won’t play for the Spurs, while Bryn Forbes is no longer with the team. Of course, that doesn’t suddenly make Murray a lock, especially with Greg Popovich still calling the shots, but it makes him a bit more trustworthy. Meanwhile, LaMarcus Aldridge is just $6,500 on DraftKings, which is solid considering his ceiling isn’t too high anymore. However, the matchup is enhanced with Jackson out, while Memphis also allowed a 52% field goal percentage off post ups last year, the sixth-highest rate in the NBA.
Detroit Pistons @ Minnesota Timberwolves
MIN -4.5, total: 225
Only two players really stand out to me from this game. Karl-Anthony Towns has as much upside as any player on the slate, especially against a bad Pistons team that no longer has Drummond or Christian Wood to protect the paint. The Pistons ranked 26th against stretch big men last season, while also ranking 25th against rebounders. Jerami Grant is my target from Detroit, meanwhile, He is in line for the largest role of his career this season and is under $5,000 in this solid matchup against Minnesota.
Sacramento Kings @ Denver Nuggets
DEN -8.5, total: 225.5
Denver is favored by nearly nine points in this game, which makes me a little worried about Nikola Jokic, who will have his minutes limited in games where the Nuggets are in control. The matchup isn’t bad or anything, but the center position is absolutely loaded on this slate, making Jokic more of a secondary play. Michael Porter has a ton of upside at his price tag, but Denver is finally healthy, as both Gary Harris and Will Barton will be available for this game. However, with Grant gone and JaMychal Green sidelined, the path to 30 minutes is certainly there for Porter.
Utah Jazz @ Portland Trail Blazers
POR -1, total: 229
We could see Damian Lillard go overlooked on this slate, and that certainly makes him intriguing. The Jazz were a good matchup for point guards last year, as they ranked 29th against dimers, 25th against primary ball handlers and 22nd against scorers. The weakest part of their defense is the backcourt, while Lillard averaged over 60 fantasy points per game in three meetings against the Jazz last year. Utah also surrendered the second-most points per game to opposing pick-and-roll ball-handlers (22.7), which bodes well for Lillard, as no player in the NBA last year averaged more points per game as the pick-and-roll ball handler (15.8). I also like using Jusuf Nurkic at just $7,000, as he has immense upside, especially if he can get up to 32 minutes or so. Last year, Nurkic posted a 22.5% usage rate, 33% rebounding rate and 12% assist rate.
For the Jazz, I like Bojan Bogdanovic at just $5,100. When healthy, he operates as the No. 2 scorer in this offense, as he averaged around 15 shot attempts per game a season ago. Portland ranked 28th against opposing small forwards last season, while also allowing 2.80 three-pointers per game to opposing power forwards, good for the second-most in basketball. Meanwhile, Rudy Gobert is at a really nice price tag at $6,800, facing a Portland team that allowed 7.5 putback points per game a season ago, good for the second-most in the NBA.
Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns
PHO -1, total: 237
This game has the highest total of the slate but for the most part, you know who to play. With so many players being underpriced on this slate, it is easy to afford Luka Doncic, who is in a great spot to begin his potential MVP season. Kristaps Porzingis is out for Dallas — with KP off the floor last season, Doncic sported a 40.3% usage rate, 31% rebounding rate and 26% assist rate, while averaging over 1.8 fantasy points per minute. Doncic was also fifth in isolation points per game a season ago (4.4), while no team in basketball allowed more isolation points per game than the Suns last year (8.8).
My favorite player from the Suns is Deandre Ayton against a short-handed Mavericks frontcourt that ranked bottom-five against the post last year. We’ll see him used more in the pick-and-roll alongside Chris Paul, which makes the two a viable correlation stack, especially if you are using Luka on the other side.
