Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
After a massive DFS slate Wednesday, Thursday presents us with only four games on the NBA DFS main slate.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker. If totals are not posted at the time of writing (sometimes the night prior to slate), they will be marked “n/a.”
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Bucks at Hawks preview
MIL -6, total: n/a
The Bucks enter this game on the second leg of a back-to-back, and with Giannis Antetokounmpo having sat out for six consecutive games now, I envision three potential possibilities for this game:
- Giannis is active;
- Giannis is out and we see the same rotation that we have for the last week and a half;
- Giannis as well as the other regular starters sit out.
Oddly enough, I think the first and third possibilities are more likely than the possibility of seeing the same rotation we saw Wednesday, simply based on Mike Budenholzer’s willingness to rest players this season. If this becomes the case, we can look to the deep reserves in Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Jordan Nwora and Jeff Teague, with Nwora carrying the most upside. Bobby Portis and Donte DiVincenzo, if active, would also be elite plays.
Since the game is on national television, however, that may provide some incentive for one or multiple of the big three to suit up. If Antetokounmpo is out and Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton are active, both are elite plays once again. Having one in your lineup would be a must, but on a four-game slate, it’d be extremely hard to avoid the combination of both if running a single-entry lineup. If Giannis ultimately returns to the court, he makes sense as the top play on the slate. While he could be facing a minutes restriction, he’s shown the ability to post 1.8 to 2.0 fantasy points per minute this season, so 25-30 minutes can’t completely rule his ceiling out.
The Hawks find themselves in a similar spot, as the status of their star is up in the air with Trae Young listed as questionable. If he misses his third straight game, we can look to Brandon Goodwin and Bogdan Bogdanovic as our primary options. In games without Young this season, Bogdanovic has posted a 27.91% usage rate (7.48% increase) and 1.36 DKP/min, while Goodwin has posted a 19.18% usage rate and 0.78 DKP/min, he’s just getting exponentially more minutes.
Clint Capela finds himself in a decent spot, as the Bucks have enough players that drive to the rim where he’ll be kept busy defensively, and surprisingly, his production with Young out hasn’t stalled as much as initially expected, posting 49.8 DKP in his last game. If Danilo Gallinari ends up suiting up and Young sits, he would be another elite option given the additional volume that would fall into his lap.
Warriors at Cavaliers preview
GSW -8, total: n/a
The Warriors and Cavaliers have a less complex injury situation than the previous game, but still have notables to hit on. The benefit with the Warriors is that Kelly Oubre and James Wiseman have already been ruled out ahead of time, saving us the ambiguity. This should continue to open up the potential for Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins from a volume standpoint.
Curry and Green set up as phenomenal options, as the Cavs are allowing the third-most transition possessions per game (18.7) and the fifth-most transition points per game (20.7). With the Warriors ranking top-10 in the league in transition frequency (16.7%) and transition points per game (20.9), they make for elite individual plays and an elite two-man stack in GPPs. Green’s rates also see a nice spike without Wiseman as he moves to the five more, as shown via FTN Daily’s On/Off Splits tool (below):
Andrew Wiggins would be the best way to get different with your Warriors exposure and he’s shown an incredibly high ceiling this season, even with Curry in the lineup.
With Oubre out, Kent Bazemore should continue to get additional minutes, logging at least 26 in five consecutive games. His price has come up, but he offers enough peripheral upside to warrant consideration. If you think this game gets out of hand, there’s a chance Juan Toscano-Anderson could see more minutes, and given his respectable per-minute production, he’s worth a dart in tournaments.
The Cavs are unsure whether they’ll be without Collin Sexton for the third straight game, and it’s fair to say the same about Darius Garland. While he returned Wednesday night, there’s a chance he could be rested on the second leg of the back-to-back. With that said, the Warriors have posted a bottom-10 defensive rating (113.1) over the last month, making this an exploitable matchup.
If one or the other of the two guards are active, they would be an elite play here. If both are out, Matthew Dellavedova would be an elite value, as he logged 34 minutes with them both out Sunday en route to 27.25 DraftKings points. The back-to-back also opens the door for Kevin Love to rest, which would thrust Larry Nance into consideration, but the return of Jarrett Allen caps his upside on the glass. Speaking of Allen, he played 30 minutes in his return Wednesday and should have his way with this Warriors’ interior as long as they don’t go small for most of the game. He’s an elite tournament option.
Celtics at Lakers preview
BOS -6, total: 212
The injury report for this game is rather straightforward, as the stars for the Lakers remain out, while Evan Fournier remains sidelined for Boston.
The Lakers are not the same defensive unit without their two future Hall of Famers, opening up the potential for Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to have ceiling games if this game stays close. Because of the salary discrepancy, I still prefer Brown over Tatum, as you are getting a comparable 50- to 60-DK-point ceiling for $1,300 cheaper. Kemba Walker is coming off a phenomenal 21-8-7 game against the Blazers, but I have a bit less interest in him Thursday against Dennis Schroder. He’s still an elite tournament play under $7,000, but I would much rather find the money for Brown.
Now that his price has dropped to $5,800, I feel comfortable targeting Robert Williams. There’s a bit of ambiguity around his minutes with the return of Tristan Thompson, but he hasn’t dropped below 25 over the last four games and in a matchup with some big centers, I would expect the same Thursday. He’s one of my favorite centers on the slate given his ability to rack up stocks against bigs who consistently have the ball in the paint (i.e. Andre Drummond).
The Celtics’ defense hasn’t been the same unit this season we’ve become accustomed to, sparking some interest for me in Kyle Kuzma and Dennis Schroder. Kuzma has experienced his fair share of inconsistency, but like Williams, his price has fallen to a point where I think he’s justifiable on a four-game slate. Given his ceiling of over 40 DraftKings points, he’ll find his way into a few lineups of mine. If we want to talk about price drops, then Schroder should be the center of attention. He’s dropped all the way down to $6,300 despite posting 36 or more DK points in six of his last 10 games and now gets to face off with one of the worst statistical defenders at the point guard position in Kemba Walker. While I would expect Marcus Smart to take Schroder, there’s still a high likelihood that he sees enough Kemba to produce. He’s one of the top mid-tier plays on the entire slate.
With the addition of Drummond, this interior has become too much of a headache to target in DFS. Drummond himself is worth a shot in tournaments given his ceiling, but his floor has burned me in consecutive games and serves as a reminder of how risky he is, even at $6,900.
Kings at Suns preview
PHO -9, total: n/a
Like many teams on this slate, the Kings head into this game on the second leg of a back-to-back. Unfortunately for them, it’s against one of the best defensive teams in basketball.
The matchup makes it hard to love De'Aaron Fox here, as Chris Paul’s defense is never something I go out of my way to attack. I would rather get my backcourt/wing exposure via Tyrese Haliburton, who comes at a significant discount and offers plenty of per-dollar upside. The starting center here will be another piece that I have an interest in. With Richaun Holmes out Wednesday, it was Damian Jones who drew the start, and he remains the stone minimum on DraftKings Thursday. He would be a low-upside punt if he starts once again, especially considering he played fewer minutes Wednesday than his backup, Hassan Whiteside. If in the off chance Whiteside draws the start, he would be the top value play on the entire slate. That still may be the case if he comes off of the bench, as he saw over 20 minutes on Wednesday and remains far too cheap at $3,400 on a four-game slate. While he’d be in my cash game pool due to the slate size, he is, however, best suited for single-entry and large-field GPPs, as he showcased his ability to go 10x or better his salary in limited minutes Thursday, posting a near-double-double with a plethora of blocks and continuing his torrid point-per-minute pace.
For the Suns, this is a very enticing spot. You can justify just about any of the starters on this team, as the Kings have the worst defensive rating in basketball (117.6), are one of the worst transition defenses in the league and have the 23rd ranked rebounding percentage in the league (48.6%). The only thing that can stop the Suns here is a blowout.
Because of this, Chris Paul, Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton are all firmly in my player pool with my interest level (from highest to lowest) being Ayton, Paul, Booker (in large part due to price). I also have a lot of interest in Cam Johnson as a cheap punt who could see additional run in a blowout, as well as Mikal Bridges, as $5,000 flat leaves a ton of room for per-dollar upside.
