Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Tuesdays are typically lighter days around the NBA, and the NBA DFS slate this Tuesday is no different, as we have a light six-game slate on the docket.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Hawks at Raptors preview
TOR -3, total: 223.5
Both teams have been dealing with their fair share of injuries over the last few weeks, and nothing has changed Tuesday. For the Hawks, Trae Young is currently listed as questionable, while Danilo Gallinari is doubtful and John Collins is out. So, there’s a chance for a ton of shots to open up. If Young is active, he steps into a favorable matchup against a disappointing defense this season, but an individual matchup with Kyle Lowry makes him far from a must-play.
If he’s out, we can default back to Bogdan Bogdanovic (29.3% usage rate, 17.7% assist rate without the aforementioned three and Cam Reddish this season) as well as Kevin Huerter (23.5% usage rate, 21.1% assist rate in the same scenario). Clint Capela would also get a few extra shots against an exploitable interior, making him a viable play whether Trae Young is active or not. If looking for pure value, Brandon Goodwin would be the option with a usage rate over 20% and assist rate over 25% with Young out.
The Raptors are also still dealing with injuries, as Fred VanVleet has been ruled out again. With OG Anunoby expected back from rest, however, they’re finally approaching full strength. Kyle Lowry is still way too cheap, sporting a 24.08% usage rate and averaging 41.83 DK points per game without VanVleet this season. This is also a spot where Pascal Siakam and Gary Trent should pick up extra shots if looking to deviate from Lowry. Given the matchup with Clint Capela, I would prefer Chris Boucher off the bench in this game, which would make him a solid GPP play. If starting, I have very little interest.
Clippers at Pacers preview
LAC -2.5, total: 229
For the second consecutive game, Kawhi Leonard has been ruled out with right foot soreness. This opens up the door for Paul George to once again be a core play. In his last game without Leonard, he posted 50.75 DraftKings points on 32 raw points and on the season, sports a 36.24% usage rate in games where Leonard has been inactive.
Marcus Morris is another huge beneficiary, especially with Serge Ibaka out. With Leonard out this season, he’s posted a 25.51% usage rate and over 28 DraftKings points per game. That’s certainly viable at only $5,000. Outside of those two, you can get away with Nicolas Batum for value, but with Rajon Rondo back, it’s hard to fully endorse Reggie Jackson and Terance Mann.
The Clippers’ defense also takes a hit without Leonard, posting a defensive rating 3.44 points worse than their season average (112.65) and allowing over 110 points per game. With Myles Turner out, we should see more Domantas Sabonis at the center position like we have as of late and in the last two games without Turner, he’s averaged 17.0 points, 15.0 rebounds, 7.5 assists and 1.5 stocks in 31.5 minutes per game. For under $9,000, he’s an elite option in all formats.
Malcolm Brogdon is another underpriced piece (particularly on DraftKings, $6,700) and he’s clearly back to his normal role after playing 39 minutes Sunday. With George likely guarding Caris LeVert a lot, Brogdon should have more room to operate and just posted a 29-11-9 stat line against the Grizzlies. This is a great spot to stack both him and Sabonis in a tournament to get different, with both also being viable individually. With the rest of the rotation rounding into health, it’s hard to trust the value there with all of the usage being soaked up with the three studs (LeVert included), and so many mouths to feed elsewhere.
Lakers at Hornets preview
CHA -2, total: 208.5
The Lakers come into this game on the second leg of a back-to-back with most of their team healthy outside of the two superstars. This makes them a rather tough team to target considering how many players take shots here, but if choosing any of them, Andre Drummond and Dennis Schroder are the two preferences.
Drummond’s minutes haven’t been ideal, but his per-minute production has been through the roof outside of the game against the Knicks Monday. In his two games prior to that, he posted 38.5 DraftKings points in 27 minutes and 37.75 DraftKings points in 22 minutes. With this type of upside at under $7,000, a favorable matchup only adds to the appeal here in tournaments. Schroder, on the other hand, has been a safer asset. With Davis and James off the floor this season, he’s posted a 25.7% usage rate, 35.4% assist rate and 1.08 DraftKings points per minute. This is an exploitable matchup here, making him a strong cash-game option.
Talen Horton-Tucker is also a viable option in a more appealing matchup than he had Monday, as 20-25 minutes are more than enough to warrant the price hike, as odd as it may seem.
On the other side of the game, the Hornets have been a rather boring team in terms of DFS since the absence of LaMelo Ball, but will also be without both Malik Monk and Gordon Hayward again on Tuesday. In their absences, Jalen McDaniels has stepped up more than anyone, posting at least 38 DraftKings points in two of his last three games and averaging over 30 minutes per game over his last three. At only $4,300, it’s hard to argue with the value here.
If looking for a bit more security, you can spend up to Miles Bridges, who’s averaged over 37 minutes per game over his last three and has topped 37 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. At $5,800, he’s another strong per-dollar option.
If looking for a tournament pivot at center, Cody Zeller for under $5,000 has legitimate 8x upside. He’s topped 36 DraftKings points in two of his last three games and with the Lakers deploying a more traditional center in Drummond, he could see an uptick in minutes compared to P.J. Washington at the center spot.
Thunder at Jazz preview
UTA -16.5, total: 223
The Jazz come into this game on the second leg of a back-to-back and could be thin in the backcourt again, despite the likely return of Mike Conley (who rested Monday). With Jordan Clarkson missing three consecutive games, his prospects to return on Tuesday shouldn’t be considered higher than 50% at best. With Clarkson off the floor this season, Donovan Mitchell sports a 34.4% usage rate and 1.31 DKP/min. Even on a back-to-back, it’s hard to argue against him here.
This would also give a bump to Bojan Bogdanovic (20.8% usage rate without Clarkson) and Joe Ingles (0.93 DKP/min, 21.4% assist rate without Clarkson). Mike Conley would also be viable, averaging 1.08 DKP/min in this scenario. The issue here, however, is a potential blowout. Sure, the back-to-back negates a bit of that concern, but this game is still extremely lopsided. Rudy Gobert is viable as well, but he’s who I worry about most on the back-to-back in terms of a reduction in playing time.
I will likely full-fade the Thunder on this slate. The matchup is brutal, and they face the largest spread on the slate. These players are also priced above a point where they can really be considered a value, since the team has been so thin for so long. If listing the Thunder players, I’d be open to considering in order of preference, it would be: Tony Bradley ($4,000), Darius Bazley ($5,500), Jaylen Hoard ($3,900), Kenrich Williams ($5,600).
Celtics at Blazers preview
POR -1, total: 227.5
Outside of Evan Fournier, who has yet to return from the COVID-19 list, the Celtics come into this game with a rather clean slate on the injury front. With this being the case, it’s easy to approach this team as normal, making Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown the top two options. Tatum carries the higher price, but also a higher ceiling and better recent form. Over his last three games, he’s topped 45 DraftKings points in all three while mixing in a career-high 53-point outing against the Wolves. Brown is a great pivot for a bit of a discount, especially given the fact that he has the ability to match or surpass Tatum’s production on any given slate.
I have less interest in the guards here, but Marcus Smart would be my favorite if choosing. Matching up with Damian Lillard on the defensive end will offer a higher ceiling in terms of defensive peripherals, which are crucial on a site like FanDuel. On DraftKings, I prefer Kemba Walker, who should see Lillard on the defensive end. I do not have interest in the big men here, as the return of Tristian Thompson has severely hampered the outlook of FTN-favorite “Time Lord” Robert Williams.
On the Blazers’ side, this is overall an advantageous matchup, but it’s a difficult one for Lillard considering the fact that he should see quite a bit of Smart. This should offer CJ McCollum and Norman Powell the chance to get up a few extra shots, making them elite pivots off Lillard and the Celtics’ stars if you want exposure to this game. Jusuf Nurkic has the potential to be a viable GPP play considering he’s back in the starting lineup. He should see anywhere between 22 and25 minutes and, given his 1.36 DKP/min clip over his last three games, he certainly carries upside for only $5,300.
Heat at Suns preview
PHO -3, total: 216
This last game of the slate is a more appealing game from a fan standpoint compared to a DFS one, as both of these teams are two of the better defensive units in basketball and don’t necessarily run at a blistering pace.
That said, Victor Oladipo remains out for the Heat, so there is certainly some additional usage and volume to go around. Starting with Jimmy Butler feels wise, as he’s failed to drop below 43 DraftKings points in any of his last five games. He should see a heap of Mikal Bridges defensively, but he’s proven that he can contribute in peripheral categories (35.4% assist rate, 12.0% rebounding rate this season) enough where it can offset a difficult matchup in terms of offensive output.
Bam Adebayo draws a more favorable matchup against the slow-footed Deandre Ayton, making him an intriguing pay-up option at center. He’s failed to return value in consecutive games but has upside for over 50 DraftKings points on this slate. Tyler Herro is the only other Miami piece that I have interest in, as the absence of Oladipo should give him a ton of opportunity off the bench. $5,500 is a fine price to pay for a player with great potential to surpass 30 DraftKings points and see over 30 minutes of playing time.
For the Suns, this is the second leg of a back-to-back so my interest here is less than it was with the Heat. With Butler likely shadowing Devin Booker throughout the game, Chris Paul and Ayton would be my preferred options. Paul saw under 30 minutes Monday night in a blowout, which bodes well for his chances to get back over 30 minutes if this game stays close. Ayton has been as consistent as they come lately, posting DK totals of 34.5-35.5-36.5-45.0-46.75 over his last five games. For under $7,000, that’s very viable production.
