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NBA Finals MVP Odds 2021

NBA Bets

After a grueling and condensed 2020-2021 NBA regular season with an unforgettable postseason, the last two teams standing for the NBA Finals are the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns, and one player stands out above the rest for NBA Finals MVP odds.

Suns point guard Chris Paul leads all players as the betting favorite at +150 (40% implied probability) to win NBA Finals Most Valuable Player award and put a bow on his illustrious Hall of Fame career. The “point god” is playing in his first NBA Finals after 16 years of attempting to get to the game’s biggest stage.

For the Bucks, the leader in that locker room to hoist the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP trophy is former NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. The “Greek Freak” is nursing a knee injury from the Eastern Conference Final, and while he may be limited, all reports suggest he fully intends to suit up for the NBA Finals. For odds to win NBA Finals MVP, Giannis opened at +350 and since moved to +450 at BetMGM.

Below, I’ll provide analysis for why CP3 is the betting favorite in MVP odds for the NBA Championship along with my best bet to take home the hardware.

Who will win NBA Finals MVP?

A look at the odds to win NBA Finals MVP, courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook.

Player Odds to win NBA Finals MVP (BetMGM)
Chris Paul +250
Devin Booker +350
Giannis Antetokounmpo +550
Khris Middleton +600
Jrue Holiday +1200
Deandre Ayton +2100
Brook Lopez +6700
Cameron Payne +10100
P.J. Tucker +10100
Mikal Bridges +15100

Why is Chris Paul favored for NBA Finals MVP odds?

Aside from being a top-five point guard of all time (not really a hot take), the Suns’ Paul is deserving to be the betting favorite for NBA Finals MVP odds. A big reason he fits the “favorite” criteria is how much of an orchestrator on offense he is for Phoenix. He leads the team in assists per game (8.7) while having an impeccable 1.6 turnovers per game. That latter stat is incredible considering Paul’s usage rate amongst Suns players (ranked first, obviously). He’s also improved his three-point shooting in the postseason, averaging 40.5% from behind the arc which culminated in his Game 6 performance vs. the Clippers where he shot 7-for-8 from three-point range.

Another reason CP3 needs to be favored for odds to win NBA Finals MVP is narratives, and man, there quite a few. Nobody loves a good redemption story more than the media, and the 11 media members assigned to vote on this award are well aware of Paul’s playoff shortcomings in the past. Losing a 3-1 series lead vs. the Rockets in 2015 and having to miss Game 6 and 7 vs. the Warriors in the 2018 WCF due to injury are just some of his career downfalls and may get used against him too much when judging his overall body of work. However, this being his first NBA Finals appearance for a team that opened at +4000 just to win the NBA Championship, it’s too hard to ignore his overall impact on the roster.

Some pundits were arguing Deandre Ayton might be a bust before Paul came to Arizona, and now, he’s considered a top-five big man in the NBA. CP3’s presence has seemed to empower Ayton and center’s influence on a game is directly correlated to Paul’s influence.

At +150, the odds aren’t great for wagering on Paul to win NBA Finals MVP, but with the Suns’ series price to win the NBA Championship hovering around -180, this betting prop at +150 offers much more value to back the Suns to win it all.

Best bet for odds to win NBA Finals MVP

Khris Middleton at +500 (BetMGM)

If you’re like me and think the Milwaukee Bucks are going to win the NBA Championship, this is the best bet to make instead of betting on the Bucks NBA Futures odds at +160. The fact remains that with Giannis Antetokounmpo hobbled from his knee injury sustained vs. the Atlanta Hawks, another player is going to need to step up and the best candidate to do that has to be Middleton (+500) over Jrue Holiday (+1100). 

Middleton gets a bit of a bad rap from casual viewers of the NBA and while there are some games he lacks assertiveness or looks disinterested, the fact remains he’s the Bucks best offensive player. Yes, Giannis may average more points per game but if he’s not shooting from the paint, he’s ineffective whereas Middleton can pull up from anywhere on the floor while also getting to the bucket. In pivotal, close playoff games, it was Middleton who shot dagger after dagger to crush the Hawks in Game 5 and 6, including a 20-point explosion in the fourth quarter in the Game 3 victory. 

With Giannis out of Game 5 and 6 of the ECF, Middleton was the focal point of the Bucks offense and put up a combined 58 points and shot just under 50% from the floor. Some may argue it’s Holiday’s time to shine, and if he’s able to still average 22 points per game while playing lockdown perimeter defense on Chris Paul or Devin Booker, he may get some love from the writers room. Hypothetically, you could wager a unit on both Middleton or Holiday for NBA Finals MVP odds and still have a decent payday should the Bucks win the title.

Understanding NBA Finals MVP odds

You got your sportsbook account setup and ready to make a bet on the NBA Finals MVP odds, but you don’t understand what the numbers or odds are in front of you. No sweat because FTNBets has you covered so you understand your betting options.

When you go to your sportsbook and you see NBA Finals MVP odds, they should look something like this:

To understand these odds, it’s best to look at the metric with $100 bets. For example, Paul is the betting favorite because he has the lowest number (odds) among all betting options for odds to win NBA Finals MVP. If you were to bet $100 on CP3 for this betting prop and it hits, you’d get your $100 returned and $150 in profit. 

Now, let’s say you think the Bucks will win the NBA Championship and you decide to bet Giannis Antetokounmpo to win NBA Finals MVP. With his odds at +450, he’s the favorite among all Milwaukee Bucks players to win this award. If you had took that same $100 and bet it on Giannis instead and he wins it, you would get $550 returned to your sportsbook account — your $100 is refunded and you are paid $450 in profit for your winning pick. FTNBets has a great parlay calculator to help you understand the odds.

An important factor to note is no matter who you bet on to win NBA Finals MVP, make sure you’re taking a player with the team that wins the NBA Championship. Since 1969, when the award was first introduced, only one player has ever won the ward while playing for the losing team. That was Jerry West with the Los Angeles Lakers in the award’s first year of existence. This isn’t the type of prop to zig and/or zag on.

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