NBA DFS Preview – First Look (4/10)

Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive First Look article for that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry and some stats to get you started with the slate.

Looking for an edge in your NBA DFS contests? Our NBA package includes a state-of-the-art LineupEDGE Optimizer, advanced DvP and On/Off tools, player projection models and more to consistently vault you to the top of the NBA leaderboards in your DFS contests.

Sunday presents us with an 11-game main slate to cap off the end of the 2021-22 regular season.

Instead of noting the players who are in or out on this slate (as this can change any second) given the amount of uncertainty, I will be adding the incentive(s) for each team’s motivation for their games under the ‘situations to monitor’ tab.

Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.

NBA Vegas Data for April 10 | NBA DFS First Look

Boston Celtics @ Memphis Grizzlies

BOS -7, total: 224.0
Pace: BOS (24th), MEM (6th)

Situations to monitor:

• The Celtics can finish anywhere between the No. 2 and No. 4 seed. With Milwaukee resting players this afternoon, it would make sense to see Boston go all-out to avoid Toronto in the first round and, ideally, move up to No. 2.
• Grizzlies are resting their starters, as they are locked into the No. 2 seed.

Toronto Raptors @ New York Knicks

TOR -5, total: 216.5
Pace: TOR (27th), NYK (29th)

Situations to monitor:

• The Raptors are locked into the No. 5 seed and could potentially rest players with no incentive to win.
• The Knicks have an incentive to lose, as they want to up their lottery odds, but they likely will not actively rest the players who have been in the rotation over the last week or so.

Miami Heat @ Orlando Magic

MIA -10, total: 218.5
Pace: MIA (28th), ORL (10th)

Situations to monitor:

• Miami is locked into the No. 1 seed with nothing to play for.
• Orlando is locked into a top-3 lottery position based on record, leaving them with zero incentive one way or another.

Detroit Pistons @ Philadelphia 76ers

PHI -10, total: 225.5
Pace: DET (13th), PHI (26th)

Situations to monitor:

• Detroit has an incentive to lose, as a loss moves them up in the lottery.
• The Sixers can move up as high as No. 3 in the East pending the results of Boston and Milwaukee, but there is a high likelihood Milwaukee loses which could incentivize the Sixers to sit players since Milwaukee owns the tiebreaker.

Chicago Bulls @ Minnesota Timberwolves

MIN -7, total: 229.5
Pace: CHI (16th), MIN (1st)

Situations to monitor:

• Both Chicago and Minnesota are locked into their respective seeds, this game means nothing.

San Antonio Spurs @ Dallas Mavericks

DAL -10.5, total: 222.5
Pace: SAS (5th), DAL (30th)

Situations to monitor:

• The Spurs are locked into the No. 10 seed.
• The Mavericks could move up to the No. 3 seed and avoid Utah if the Warriors lose and the Mavericks win, giving them a bit of motivation.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets

DEN -10, total: 228.5
Pace: LAL (7th), DEN (20th)

Situations to monitor:

• The Lakers have nothing to play for, as they have no draft capital in 2022.
• The Nuggets could move up to No. 5 if they win and Utah loses, giving them a shred of motivation, though Utah playing Portland renders this as a very unlikely outcome.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Clippers

LAC -12, total: 217.5
Pace: OKC (11th), LAC (18th)

Situations to monitor:

• The Thunder are looking at climbing the lottery.
• The Clippers are locked into the No. 8 seed and will likely limit their starters.

Golden State Warriors @ New Orleans Pelicans

GSW -6, total: 221.0
Pace: GSW (14th), NOP (21st)

Situations to monitor:

• The Warriors can drop to No. 4 with a loss and a Mavericks win, giving them incremental motivation, though they have already ruled some key players out.
• The Pelicans are locked into the No. 9 seed with no motivation one way or the other.

Sacramento Kings @ Phoenix Suns

PHX -10, total 228.0
Pace: SAC (9th), PHO (8th)

Situations to monitor:

• Sacramento does not have the ability to improve their lottery odds, rendering this a useless game.
• The Suns are locked into the No. 1 seed and have already ruled out their key starters (aside from Mikal Bridges)

Utah Jazz @ Portland Trail Blazers

UTA -18.5, total: 222.0
Pace: UTA (23rd), POR (15th)

Situations to monitor:

• The Jazz could fall to No. 6 with a loss and a Denver win, giving them incremental motivation, albeit in a cake-walk of a matchup.
• The Blazers are unable to improve their lottery odds, rendering this a meaningless game.

Matchup to Target | NBA DFS First Look

Because of the nature of the slate, it’s hard to identify a core this early in the day. To find out what matchups to target, please reference Eddie’s player rankings, the NBA Advanced DvP tool, and the premium discord.

NBA Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

For the top value plays on the slate, check out the Cheat Sheets for our analysts’ exposures and the NBA Optimizer for the best point-per-dollar plays.

Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look

The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate are listed below for DraftKings and FanDuel.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. Nikola Jokic ($12,400)
2. Luka Doncic ($12,200)
3. Joel Embiid ($11,800)
4. Dejounte Murray ($11,000)
5. Jayson Tatum ($10,300)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. Nikola Jokic ($12,200)
2. Joel Embiid ($11,800)
3. Luka Doncic ($11,600)
4. Pascal Siakam ($10,800)
5. Dejounte Murray ($10,500)