NBA DFS Preview - First Look (2/26)

Friday’s NBA DFS slate was absolutely crazy, so it’ll be interesting to see what Saturday’s six-game main slate has in store. Let’s take an early look at the action.

As always, be sure to check out the FTN NBA Optimizer.

NBA Vegas Data for February 26 | NBA DFS First Look

Toronto Raptors @ Atlanta Hawks

ATL -2.5, total: 226
Pace: TOR (25th), ATL (20th)

Situations to monitor:

OG Anunoby missed Friday’s game and will miss more time.
John Collins (foot) will miss his fifth consecutive game for the Hawks. De’Andre Hunter is listed as probable with an illness.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Chicago Bulls

CHI -1.5, total: 236
Pace: MEM (4th), CHI (15th)

Situations to monitor:

Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso will remain sidelined for the Bulls.
Dillon Brooks (ankle) could return to the Memphis lineup in early March.

Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers

CLE -7.5, total: 206.5
Pace: WAS (22nd), CLE (26th)

Situations to monitor:

Cleveland will be without Darius Garland, Caris LeVert and Rajon Rondo for this game.
This is the second end of a back-to-back for the Wizards, who are coming off a double-overtime loss. Kristaps Porzingis will remain sidelined.

San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat

MIA -8.5, total: 225
Pace: SAS (5th), MIA (29th)

Situations to monitor:

San Antonio is also coming off a double overtime game. Zach Collins has already been ruled out.
Dewayne Dedmon missed Friday’s game with a back injury for Miami. Victor Oladipo could make his debut in a few weeks.

Brooklyn Nets @ Milwaukee Bucks

MIL -9.5, total: 236.5
Pace: BKN (11th), MIL (9th)

Situations to monitor:

Ben Simmons won’t make his Brooklyn debut yet, but Goran Dragic is listed as probable.

Sacramento Kings @ Denver Nuggets

DEN -7.5, total: 237.5
Pace: SAC (7th), DEN (21st)

Situations to monitor:

Richaun Holmes (back) missed Thursday’s game. We’ll see if he returns to the lineup for Saturday’s contest.

Matchups to Target | NBA DFS First Look

Clint Capela vs. Toronto Raptors

On the surface, it doesn’t look like a stellar matchup. However, Toronto has been vulnerable on the interior for much of the season, especially since they tend to run a smaller lineup. Khem Birch did start at center last game with OG Anunoby out, but it really doesn’t make this matchup poor by any means. The Raptors are coughing up the fifth-most points per game off putbacks this season (7.1), as well as a league-worst 66.5% field goal percentage off the play type. Meanwhile, Capela is averaging 2.2 putback points per game, while sporting a 26.6% frequency rate off the play type. And with John Collins sidelined, Capela has a better chance of logging 30-32 minutes.

Gary Trent vs. Atlanta Hawks

Trent didn’t have a great game Friday, as the Raptors were dismantled. But he still has every opportunity to produce, especially with OG Anunoby sidelined. He is sporting a solid 22% usage rate with Anunoby off the floor this season and in any competitive game, Trent is a candidate to play 38-40 minutes. This is a good matchup for him, too, as the Hawks are allowing the second-most points per game to opposing shooters off screens this season (5.3), to go along with the most points per possession (1.16) and highest field goal percentage (47.7%) off the play type. Trent, meanwhile, is averaging an impressive 1.28 points per possession off screens, while shooting an insane 51.4% off the play type. In two meetings against Atlanta this season, Trent is averaging 25 real points per game.

Bam Adebayo vs. San Antonio Spurs

Adebayo is coming off a very productive game Friday and now has an even better matchup on Saturday against what should be a very tired San Antonio team. Hopefully they can keep this game competitive but regardless, the spot is fantastic for Adebayo. San Antonio is allowing the second-most points per game to opposing roll men out of the pick-and-roll this season (9.4), while ranking 28th against rebounders and 29th against skilled centers.

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Daniel Gafford vs. CLE — Thomas Bryant was available Friday, but Gafford got the start at center. He played 29 minutes, which actually isn’t a ton considering the game went to double overtime. However, Kristaps Porzingis is still out, while Bryant could sit or be limited on the second end of a back-to-back. At just $3,100 on DraftKings, Gafford is worth a look and would become an elite play if Bryant ends up sitting.

Brandon Goodwin vs. WAS — Once again, Cleveland’s backcourt is very shorthanded. Darius Garland, Caris LeVert and Rajon Rondo have all been ruled out, leaving Goodwin to start at point guard. With Garland and Rondo off the floor this season, Goodwin is sporting a usage rate just under 21%, while averaging 0.98 fantasy points per minute in the split.