NBA DFS Preview – First Look (12/29)

Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive first look article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.

Looking for an edge in your NBA DFS contests? Our NBA package includes a state-of-the-art LineupEDGE Optimizer, advanced DvP and On/Off tools, player projection models, and more to consistently vault you to the top of the NBA leaderboards in your DFS contests.

We have nine games on Wednesday’s slate, so let’s dive in.

Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.

NBA Vegas Data for December 29 | NBA DFS First Look

New York Knicks @ Detroit Pistons

NYK -6, total: 206.5
Pace: NYK (27th), DET (10th)

Situations to monitor:

• Derrick Rose, Nerlens Noel, Jericho Sims and Danuel House are out for the Knicks.
• Jerami Grant, Kelly Olynyk, Cory Joseph, Trey Lyles, Isaiah Stewart, Saben Lee, Josh Jackson, Killian Hayes and Rodney McGruder are out for the Pistons. Cade Cunningham is listed as questionable.

Charlotte Hornets @ Indiana Pacers

IND -2.5, total: 227.5
Pace: CHA (2nd), IND (24th)

Situations to monitor:

• Miles Bridges and P.J. Washington have been ruled out for the Hornets.
• T.J. McConnell and T.J. Warren remain out for the Pacers while Malcolm Brogdon is listed as questionable.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Boston Celtics

BOS -5.5, total: 211.5
Pace: LAC (12th), BOS (21st)

Situations to monitor:

• Jayson Tatum, Dennis Schroder, Enes Freedom and Justin Jackson are out for the Celtics. Marcus Smart is listed as questionable.
• Paul George, Reggie Jackson, Nicolas Batum and Isaiah Hartenstein are out for the Clippers.

Atlanta Hawks @ Chicago Bulls

CHI -8.5, total: 220.5
Pace: ATL (19th), CHI (16th)

Situations to monitor:

• John Collins, Delon Wright, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kevin Huerter, Danilo Gallinari, Gorgui Dieng, De’Andre Hunter, Jalen Johnson, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot and Onyeka Okongwu have been ruled out for the Hawks.
• Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso are out for the Bulls.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies

MEM -4.5, total: 225.5
Pace: LAL (1st), MEM (14th)

Situations to monitor:

• Anthony Davis, Kent Bazemore, Rajon Rondo, Trevor Ariza and Wayne Ellington are out for the Lakers.
• Dillon Brooks, De’Anthony Melton, Ziaire Williams, Santi Aldama and John Konchar are out for the Grizzlies.

Miami Heat @ San Antonio Spurs

SAS -3.5, total: 217.0
Pace: MIA (29th), SAS (4th)

Situations to monitor:

• Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry, Max Strus, Dewayne Dedmon, Markieff Morris, Udonis Haslem and P.J. Tucker are out for the Heat.
• Dejounte Murray has been ruled out for the Spurs.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Phoenix Suns

PHO -15, total: 217.0
Pace: OKC (11th), PHO (3rd)

Situations to monitor:

• Josh Giddey, Darius Bazley, Derrick Favors, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Alexej Pokusevski and Tre Mann are out for the Thunder.
• Deandre Ayton, Frank Kaminsky, Jae Crowder and Abdel Nader are out for the Suns.

Utah Jazz @ Portland Trail Blazers

UTA -6.5, total: 229.5
Pace: UTA (13th), POR (18th)

Situations to monitor:

• Donovan Mitchell is out for the Jazz.
• CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic, Dennis Smith, Robert Covington and Ben McLemore are out for the Blazers.

Dallas Mavericks @ Sacramento Kings

DAL -1.5, total: 219.5
Pace: DAL (28th), SAC (6th)

Situations to monitor:

• Luka Doncic, Tim Hardaway, Trey Burke and Willie Cauley-Stein are out for the Mavericks. Maxi Kleber is listed as questionable.
• Davion Mitchell and Alex Len are out for the Kings.

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Below are three noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Wednesday.

Omer Yurtseven has averaged 13.23 points and 14.82 rebounds per-36-minutes with Bam Adebayo, P.J. Tucker and Dewayne Dedmon off the court this season

Productive would be an understatement for Yurtseven, as he’s stepped into the starting center role seamlessly, averaging 1.08 DraftKings points per minute in this scenario. One night after being the chalky center, his price has now dropped $200 and with the same players out, he should be primed for another night of popularity among the masses. This is chalk that I want to eat.

Over his last two games, Desmond Bane has posted a 26.4% usage rate

With both Dillon Brooks and De’Anthony Melton out, Bane has stepped into a much larger role and he’s certainly delivered. In addition to the usage rate, he’s averaged 30.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 2.5 assists in 34.4 minutes per game. With John Konchar also in the health and safety protocols now, we could see Bane flirt with 40 minutes on the wing for a reasonable $6,200 price tag.

With Dennis Schroder and Jayson Tatum off the court this season, Jaylen Brown has posted a 34.3% usage rate and 1.38 DraftKings points per minute

With a limited number of spend-up options on this slate, Brown will likely carry some ownership and for good reason. His usage rate in this scenario is elite and he’s added a 20.3% assist rate and 11.9% rebounding rate, only furthering his production. If Marcus Smart is ruled out for the second consecutive game, this only becomes a stronger play.

NBA Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Below are some of the top value plays on Wednesday’s slate on DraftKings, pulled from the LineupEDGE optimizer at the time of writing (with their points-per-dollar included). For the rest of the preferred value plays, visit FTNDaily’s cheat sheets.

1. Lance Stephenson (9.53x)
2. Darren Collison (8.55x)
3. Frank Jackson (8.31x)
4. Saddiq Bey (8.19x)
5. Luguentz Dort (7.51x)

For the rest of the top value plays on the slate, check out the Cheat Sheets for our analysts’ exposures and the NBA Optimizer for the best point-per-dollar plays.

Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look

The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. LeBron James ($11,800)
2. Trae Young ($11,000)
3. Julius Randle ($10,800)
4. Domantas Sabonis ($10,700)
5. Damian Lillard ($10,600)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. LeBron James ($11,200)
2. Russell Westbrook ($9,800)
3. Trae Young ($9,700)
4. LaMelo Ball ($9,400)
5. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($9,300)

Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. LeBron James (1x)
2. LaMelo Ball (1.1x)
3. Trae Young (1.1x)
4. Jimmy Butler (1.15x)
5. Domantas Sabonis (1.15x)

With Wednesday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Tuesday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.

DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look

Below is the winning lineup from DraftKings’ $400k Fadeaway ($100k to first) Tuesday:

• PG: Malik Monk (38.00)
• SG: RJ Hampton (24.75)
• SF: Jimmy Butler (65.00)
• PF: Chris Boucher (61.75)
• C: Daniel Gafford (36.25)
• G: Ricky Rubio (67.25)
• F: LeBron James (72.75)
• UTIL: Omer Yurtseven (36.50)

Total: 402.25

FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look

Below is the optimal lineup on FanDuel from Tuesday.

• PG: Spencer Dinwiddie (45.9)
• PG: Ricky Rubio (67.1)
• SG: Malik Monk (39.4)
• SG: Jimmy Butler (65.1)
• SF: Franz Wagner (54.9)
• SF: LeBron James (67.7)
• PF: Herbert Jones (47.9)
• PF: Chris Boucher (59.8)
• C: Mitchell Robinson (43.6)

Total: 491.4

There are high-scoring slates, and then there is whatever happened on Tuesday. There were virtually zero duds across the slate, as cash lines flirted with 350-360 as every player on the slate seemed to have an incredibly productive outing. LeBron James was upward of 70% rostered in smaller single-entry GPPs and as the highest scorer on the slate, it was hard to avoid him if you wanted to win.

The chalk value also did well, as Omer Yurtseven, Herbert Jones, RJ Hampton and Chris Boucher (on FanDuel) all performed well.