NBA DFS Preview – First Look (12/11)

There is a six-game main DFS slate in the NBA Saturday, and while there will always be news, this slate isn’t as hectic right now. Of course, that can change in a second so be sure to stay updated with the FTN NBA Optimizer. 

Let’s break it down.

NBA Vegas Data for December 11 | NBA DFS First Look

Utah Jazz @ Washington Wizards

UTA -5.5, total: 220
Pace: UTA (12th), WAS (20th)

Situations to monitor:

• None.

Sacramento Kings @ Cleveland Cavaliers

CLE -6.5, total: 216.5
Pace: SAC (10th), CLE (27th)

Situations to monitor:

• Richaun Holmes (eye) will remain out for this game.

Houston Rockets @ Memphis Grizzlies

MEM -8, total: 222
Pace: HOU (4th), MEM (6th)

Situations to monitor:

• Ja Morant remains sidelined for the Grizzlies, while Dillon Brooks will also be out, as he remains in the league’s health and safety protocols.
• For the Rockets, Jalen Green will be out again, while Kevin Porter is listed as questionable with a thigh injury.

Chicago Bulls @ Miami Heat

MIA -1, total: 211.5
Pace: CHI (9th), MIA (18th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jimmy Butler will sit out with a back injury.
• DeMar DeRozan will remain out (health and safety protocols), while Alex Caruso is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury.

Golden State Warriors @ Philadelphia 76ers

GSW -2.5, total: 214.5
Pace: GSW (1st), PHI (21st)

Situations to monitor:

• None.

Denver Nuggets @ San Antonio Spurs

DEN -1, total: 218.5
Pace: DEN (21st), SAS (1st)

Situations to monitor:

• Keldon Johnson (ankle) is listed as probable for the Spurs.

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Marvin Bagley is averaging 0.99 fantasy points per minute with Richaun Holmes off the floor

Bagley has not been a huge part of the Kings rotation this season but since the head coaching change in Sacramento, he has seen a lot more minutes. He logged 27 minutes Friday with Richaun Holmes out — with Holmes off the floor this season, Bagley is averaging right around a fantasy point per minute, while also sporting a healthy 32% rebounding rate in the split. Bagley recorded 15 points and 10 rebounds against Charlotte on Friday and while he likely comes off the bench again, the opportunity to play 25-30 minutes is clearly there with Holmes once again ruled out.

The Kings are allowing 8.1 putback points per game this season

That is the highest number in the NBA, while opponents are also sporting a 6.2% frequency rate off the play type against Sacramento, good for the third-highest mark in basketball. This bodes very well for both Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley of the Cavaliers but especially Allen, who is averaging 2.5 points per game off putbacks, the ninth-most in the league. And according to FTN’s advanced DVP tool, the Kings rank 22nd against rebounders and 28th against rim protectors on the season.

Lonzo Ball is averaging 93 touches per game over his last two outings

Both games have come with DeMar DeRozan out for the Bulls, who will remain sidelined again Saturday. Ball is averaging 93 touches per game during that span, up from his season average of 73.5 per game, while Ball is also sporting a 2.1% bump in usage rate with DeRozan off the floor this season. And in the same split, he is also sporting a 16% rebounding rate and 18% assist rate, while averaging a strong 1.01 fantasy points per minute.

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Marvin Bagley vs. CLE — Bagley is averaging right around a fantasy point per minute with Richaun Holmes off the floor this season, while sporting a rebounding rate north of 32%.

Caleb Martin vs. CHI — Martin has started with Jimmy Butler out of the lineup, which will again be the case Saturday. 

Check out the FTN cheat sheets for more value plays.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

DraftKings optimal lineup

De’Aaron Fox (48.5)
James Bouknight (38.0)
Terence Davis (38.0)
Kevin Love (46.25)
JaVale McGee (48.75)
Caris LeVert (48.5)
LeBron James (59.25)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (79.25)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Cody Martin (48.1)
De’Aaron Fox (50.9)
Terence Davis (40.1)
Caris LeVert (48.7)
Garrison Mathews (38.8)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (78.9)
Kevin Love (43.6)
LeBron James (61.0)
JaVale McGee (48.0)

With both Deandre Ayton and Frank Kaminsky out for the Suns, JaVale McGee stepped into the starting lineup and was fantastic, scoring 21 points to go along with 15 rebounds and a pair of blocks in 26 minutes. Meanwhile, with Charlotte still so, so depleted, both Cody Martin and rookie James Bouknight landed in the optimal lineups Friday.