NBA DFS Preview – First Look (11/8)

Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive “first look” article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.

We have eight games on tap on Monday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.

Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.

NBA Vegas Data for Nov. 8 | NBA DFS First Look

New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers

PHI -4.5, total: 210.5
Pace: NYK (26th), PHI (30th)

Situations to monitor:

• Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons remain out for the Sixers.

Brooklyn Nets @ Chicago Bulls

CHI -1.5, total: 215.0
Pace: BKN (13th), CHI (18th)

Situations to monitor:

• none

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Memphis Grizzlies

MEM -6, total: 218.5
Pace: MN (7th), MEM (17th)

Situations to monitor:

• Dillon Brooks remains out for the Grizzlies.
• D’Angelo Russell is listed as questionable for the Timberwolves.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Dallas Mavericks

DAL -6.5, total: 211.0
Pace: NOP (14th), DAL (22nd)

Situations to monitor:

• Brandon Ingram is listed as questionable for the Pelicans.

Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets

MIA -2.5, total: 205.5
Pace: MIA (28th), DEN (20th)

Situations to monitor:

• Michael Porter has been ruled out for the Nuggets, while Monte Morris is currently listed as questionable.

Atlanta Hawks @ Golden State Warriors

GSW -3.5, total: 221.5
Pace: ATL (15th), GSW (5th)

Situations to monitor:

• John Collins is listed as probable for the Hawks.

Phoenix Suns @ Sacramento Kings

PHX -2.5, total: 222.5
Pace: PHX (4th), SAC (11th)

Situations to monitor:

• Deandre Ayton has been ruled out for the Suns.

Charlotte Hornets @ Los Angeles Lakers

LAL -2.5, total: 224.5
Pace: CHA (3rd), LAL (1st)

Situations to monitor:

• LeBron James has been ruled out for the Lakers, while Anthony Davis is listed as questionable.
• P.J. Washington has been ruled out for the Hornets.

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Below are noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Monday.

In two games this season with Deandre Ayton inactive, Frank Kaminsky is averaging 1.18 DraftKings points per minute.

While Kaminsky hasn’t drawn the start in either of these games, he’s averaged 28.5 minutes per game compared to 18.5 minutes per game for JaVale McGee, Ayton’s spot starter. Ownership numbers have quickly caught on to the fact that Kaminsky is simply the more trustworthy DFS asset, but that doesn’t deter from how strong of a play he is once again. At $4,300, getting 1.18 DK points per minute for nearly 30 minutes is a value you don’t want to pass up.

Tyrese Maxey is averaging more touches per game (74.6) than each of LaMelo Ball (71.5), Bradley Beal (69.5) and Donovan Mitchell (68.6).

Maxey’s per-minute production hasn’t been quite what we had hoped, but it won’t really matter when he’s playing over 40 minutes per game, as he’s played 45 and 44 minutes in his last two games respectively. He defers his shot volume to Joel Embiid and now Shake Milton, who has recently entered the starting lineup, but Maxey has posted at least five assists in four straight games while scoring in double-digits in eight of his nine games this season. The Knicks have not been as effective defensively as they were last season and if there’s a weak spot in a team’s defense, it’s Kemba Walker. Maxey could see a nice bump in production in another 40-plus-minute outing on Monday.

In 84.7 minutes with Michael Porter off the floor this season, Will Barton has posted a 23.9% usage rate and 1.04 DK points per minute.

With Porter slated to miss Monday’s game, Barton will likely step into the No. 2 role on offense behind Nikola Jokic. Barton has always been a player capable of stuffing the stat sheet and that’s only confirmed by his 23.9% assist rate and 10.2% rebounding rate in hose 84.7 minutes with Porter off the floor. He makes for a nice mid-tier target at only $5,500 on DraftKings.

Since Oct. 30, DeMar DeRozan has posted a 29.4% usage rate and a 13.3% assist rate.

DeRozan is playing arguably the best basketball of his career and the last week of the season has been a high point. Over that span, he’s averaged 32.8 points, 6.5 rebounds and 2.5 assists in 35.1 minutes per game and now draws another favorable matchup against the Nets. With Brooklyn being slight road favorites, this should be a wire-to-wire contest, the type of game that DeRozan gets up for. With his current form, it’s hard to not lock him into a lineup if you’re looking to also roster one of the two Nets studs.

Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look

The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. Nikola Jokic ($11,000)
2. Luka Doncic ($10,700)
3. Stephen Curry ($10,500)
4. Russell Westbrook ($10,400)
5. Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,300)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. Nikola Jokic ($11,100)
2. Anthony Davis ($10,600)
3. Kevin Durant ($10,500)
4. Luka Doncic ($10,200)
5. Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,100)

Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. Nikola Jokic (1x)
2. Luka Doncic (1x)
3. Anthony Davis (1x)
4. Kevin Durant (1x)
5. Russell Westbrook (1x)

With Monday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Sunday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

Sunday’s slate had a little bit of everything, as we had studs both flop (Paul George) and surpass value (Giannis Antetokounmpo), but it was a balanced build on FanDuel that took everything down, with the most expensive player in the lineup (shown below) being Bradley Beal.

Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.

DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look

Below is the winning lineup from DraftKings’ $250k Fadeaway ($50k to first) Sunday night.

PG: Ricky Rubio (61.25)
SG: Derrick Rose (28.25)
SF: Jae’Sean Tate (35.00)
PF: Bobby Portis (45.25)
C: Myles Turner (49.25)
G: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (40.50)
F: Giannis Antetokounmpo (67.00)
UTIL: Drew Eubanks (37.25)

Total: 363.75

FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look

Below is the winning lineup from FanDuel’s $200k Clutch Shot ($40k to first) Sunday night.

PG: Ricky Rubio (54.6)
PG: LaMelo Ball (40.9)
SG: Cole Anthony (52.6)
SG: Bradley Beal (45.0)
SF: Keldon Johnson (38.7)
SF: Royce O’Neale (32.4)
PF: Evan Mobley (49.3)
PF: Jarrett Allen (47.4)
C: Myles Turner (51.5)

Total: 412.4

Ricky Rubio found himself in both winning lineups at sub-5% ownership, as Collin Sexton departed with an injury at halftime and never returned for the Cavs. This led to Rubio having a ceiling game, posting a near-40-point double-double. Because of his lack of rostership, you’ll notice on FanDuel that there is not a bolded high scorer. With Rubio in the lineup coupled with a low-owned Myles Turner and Cole Anthony, there was no need for Giannis Antetokounmpo, the slate’s leading scorer. Instead, the winner of the FanDuel Clutch Shot stuck with a loaded mid-range, and it paid off beautifully.