Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Week 9 was an absolute bloodbath in the NFL, with a lot of underdogs pulling out upset wins, knocking people out of survivor pools and ruining DFS lineups. One site that remained unaffected? PrizePicks. With the ability to focus on specific player props, there’s no reason to tilt over a team’s performance. With a Monday Night Football game on tap, we have another board of picks to choose from.
“PrizePicks” is a creative new way to parlay picks based on expected fantasy point production. To dive into the ins and outs of everything PrizePicks, FTN’s Tyler Loechner wrote a comprehensive App Review.
How to Play PrizePicks NFL
For the sake of this NFL article, the format is simple: You pick 2-5 players and predict whether they will go over or under their projected fantasy point total, or their single-stat total.
When parlaying the players, the larger your parlay, the better the payout:
- Two-pick entry pays 3x (max entry: $400)
- Three-pick entry pays 5x (max entry: $200)
- Four-pick entry pays 10x (max entry: $100)
As a bonus offer, there is a “flex play” option. This provides an added level of security on your entry where you can decrease your multiplier received if you miss one of your entries but hit on all of the others.
An important note — these lines can shift over the course of the day leading up until lock. The lines that I am quoting are at the time of writing (Wednesday morning). I will be in the PrizePicks Discord channel (which is FREE!) up until lock to help out with how to adjust to the changing projections.
Scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.
NFL PrizePicks for today
Here’s a look at my favorite PrizePicks for Monday.
Diontae Johnson over 67.5 receiving yards
Every week there are a number of lines that simply don’t make sense. This is one of them. Johnson has played in six games this season and has topped this number in every game since Week 1, when he had a down game of 5-36-1. The volume he’s receiving also makes this a smash prop, as he’s seen double-digit targets in all but one game this season, even topping this prop in the one game that he failed to receive double-digit targets (he saw two). He has a stranglehold on the target share for the Steelers (28.67%, over 8% higher than the next-closest receiver) and his 9.76-yard air yard metric is higher than we’ve seen in the past.
Add this all to the fact that he now squares off with a secondary that ranks bottom-six in yards-per-attempt allowed (8.09) and in the bottom half of the league in yards after the catch and it just adds to the simple fact that this is a blatant misprice.
Justin Fields over 33.5 rushing yards
I have zero faith in Fields in this matchup, especially through the air, so because we’re forced to choose a player from each team, I’ll opt for the rookie’s rushing prop.
This is a mark he’s topped in each of his last three games, seeing an uptick in rushing attempts from 6 to 8 to 10 over the course of these games. Against a stingy secondary with a subpar receiving group, Fields may be forced to rely on his legs more than usual in this game. The Steelers do rank in the bottom half of the league in blitz attempts, so they may not go out of their way to force Fields to scramble, but with the expectation that they’ll be able to lock down this group of receivers, it may be Fields’ (and the Bears’) only option to pick up chunk yardage. Given the recent trend of him trusting his legs more by the week, this is the over I feel most comfortable with for the Bears.
