Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive “first look” article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.
We have 12 games on tap on Friday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.
Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.
NBA Vegas Data for November 26 | NBA DFS First Look
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Charlotte Hornets
CHA -2.5, total: 222.5
Pace: MIN (9th), CHA (3rd)
Situations to monitor:
- Patrick Beverley has been ruled out for the Timberwolves.
- Mason Plumlee is listed as questionable for the Hornets.
Phoenix Suns @ New York Knicks
PHO -3, total: 216.0
Pace: PHO (4th), NYK (25th)
Situations to monitor:
- Frank Kaminsky has been ruled out for the Suns.
- Mitchell Robinson and Derrick Rose are questionable for the Knicks.
Chicago Bulls @ Orlando Magic
CHI -8.5, total: 214.0
Pace: CHI (13th), ORL (15th)
Situations to monitor:
- Cole Anthony and Terrence Ross are questionable for the Magic
Toronto Raptors @ Indiana Pacers
IND -4, total: 213.5
Pace: TOR (28th), IND (22nd)
Situations to monitor:
- OG Anunoby is questionable for the Raptors while Khem Birch has been ruled out.
Atlanta Hawks @ Memphis Grizzlies
MEM -1, total: 226.0
Pace: ATL (18th), MEM (12th)
Situations to monitor:
- Trae Young is listed as probable for the Hawks while Bogdan Bogdanovic is listed as questionable. De’Andre Hunter remains out.
- De’Anthony Melton is questionable for the Grizzlies.
Washington Wizards @ Oklahoma City Thunder
WAS -7.5, total: 208.5
Pace: WAS (21st), OKC (14th)
Situations to monitor:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is listed as out for the Thunder
Boston Celtics @ San Antonio Spurs
BOS -3.5, total: 215.5
Pace: BOS (23rd), SAS (5th)
Situations to monitor:
- Jaylen Brown is listed as questionable for the Celtics while Robert Williams has been ruled out. Josh Richardson is not expected to play.
- Devin Vassell and Doug McDermott are questionable for the Spurs.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Denver Nuggets
MIL -3.5, total: 213.5
Pace: MIL (8th), DEN (29th)
Situations to monitor:
- Nikola Jokic remains questionable for the Nuggets, while Michael Porter, P.J. Dozier and Jamal Murray remain out. Bones Hyland is considered questionable.
- Brook Lopez and Donte DiVincenzo remain out for the Bucks.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Utah Jazz
UTA -12, total: 216.5
Pace: NOP (3rd), UTA (13th)
Situations to monitor:
- Royce O’Neale is questionable for the Jazz.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Golden State Warriors
GSW -6.5, total: 225.0
Pace: POR (16th), GSW (6th)
Situations to monitor:
- Anfernee Simons is questionable for the Blazers.
Sacramento Kings @ Los Angeles Lakers
LAL -7.5, total: 224.5
Pace: SAC (10th), LAL (2nd)
Situations to monitor:
- Richaun Holmes and Harrison Barnes are questionable for the Kings.
- LeBron James is questionable for the Lakers.
Five Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Below are noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Friday.
The Charlotte Hornets rank 25th against rebounders and 27th against scorers, per FTNDaily’s advanced DvP.
The Hornets have gotten gashed all season down low and Karl-Anthony Towns sure won’t make things any easier Friday, especially with Mason Plumlee potentially missing this game. While Towns’ production has been rather up and down in terms of DFS, his $8,800 price tag on FanDuel marks his lowest price of the season, making him a pillar in my single-entry contests Friday.
Over the last three games, Will Barton has led the Nuggets with 62.7 touches per game.
Nikola Jokic has now missed three consecutive games, leaving Barton as the alpha in the offense given how depleted the roster is. He’s led the starters with a 23.2% usage rate over that span, adding a 21.1% assist rate (second to only Facundo Campazzo) and a 14.7% defensive rebounding rate, giving him some of the best all-around upside in the mid-tier. If Jokic misses once again, Barton is a very strong option.
In his last three games versus Damian Lillard, Steph Curry has averaged 41.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game.
The 41 points per game are ballooned by a 62-point outing from January, but he’s averaged over 26 shot attempts and shot over 50% from the field across these three games while only dropping below 35 points once. The Blazers have a tendency of being able to isolate and limit the opposing team’s star, but Curry hasn’t been a victim of this. Given the insane volume that he continues to see and the track record he has against Lillard, Curry makes for an ultra-strong spend-up in what could be a close contest.
In his two games without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander this season, Josh Giddey has averaged 99.5 touches per game.
Those 99.5 touches are 27.7 more than his season average (71.8 per game) and he’s been able to turn those touches into incredibly productive stat lines. Over this span, he’s averaged 17.0 points, 8.0 assists, 7.0 rebounds, and 1.5 steals/blocks in 32.5 minutes per game. While his price is up to $6,500 on DraftKings, the absence of Gilgeous-Alexander once again on Friday makes this price tag at least $1,000 too cheap.
Al Horford has posted a 19.8% usage rate, 21.3% assist rate and 15.7% rebounding rate with Robert Williams off the floor this season.
Horford is primed for a slight uptick across the board with Williams already ruled out for Friday’s game against the Spurs and with Jaylen Brown questionable, he could be asked to take on even more.
FTNDaily’s advanced DvP tool illustrates just how bad the Spurs have been in the areas where Horford thrives. Averaging over 1.2 DKP/min with Williams off the floor regardless of the matchup, Horford has an astronomical amount of upside in this matchup sans Williams and potentially Jaylen Brown.
Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look
The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,200)
- Nikola Jokic ($11,500)
- Steph Curry ($11,400)
- Russell Westbrook ($11,000)
- Anthony Davis ($10,800)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,700)
- Nikola Jokic ($11,300)
- Anthony Davis ($11,000)
- Steph Curry ($10,500)
- Jayson Tatum ($10,000)
Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (1x)
- Anthony Davis (1x)
- Nikola Jokic (1x)
- Steph Curry (1x)
- Russell Westbrook (1.1x)
With Friday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Wednesday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.
Wednesday Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.
DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from DraftKings’ $425k Fadeaway ($100k to first) Wednesday night.
PG: Jalen Suggs (32.50)
SG: Luguentz Dort (38.75)
SF: Franz Wagner (31.75)
PF: Wendell Carter (36.75)
C: Christian Wood (43.00)
G: Trae Young (61.75)
F: Anthony Edwards (69.50)
UTIL: Jusuf Nurkic (59.25)
Total: 373.25
FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the optimal FanDuel NBA lineup from Wednesday.
PG: Marcus Smart (43.6)
PG: Trae Young (59.9)
SG: Malik Beasley (38.6)
SG: Terry Rozier (58.1)
SF: LeBron James (61.0)
SF: Anthony Edwards (65.8)
PF: Willy Hernangomez (41.4)
PF: Jarred Vanderbilt (41.5)
C: Jusuf Nurkic (56.9)
Total: 466.8
Balance was the name of the game Wednesday, as the slate’s highest-scoring player was priced below $8,500 on both sites while we saw several players below $10,000 eclipse the 50 fantasy point mark. There was enough value to fit a handful of upper mid-tier plays in, as Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt, Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner all made it incredibly easy.
LeBron James and Trae Young were the two “studs” to make it into the optimals, but there was no player priced above James who ended up in the top lineups.
