Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive “first look” article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.
We have 10 games on tap on Monday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.
Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.
NBA Vegas Data for Nov. 22 | NBA DFS First Look
Brooklyn Nets @ Cleveland Cavaliers
BKN -7.5, total: 207.5
Pace: BKN (9th), CLE (26th)
Situations to monitor:
- Evan Mobley and Collin Sexton remain out for the Cavs while Cedi Osman is listed as doubtful.
- Joe Harris, Bruce Brown and Nicolas Claxton are all out for the Nets.
Charlotte Hornets @ Washington Wizards
WAS -3.5, total: 215.5
Pace: CHA (3rd), WAS (25th)
Situations to monitor:
- Rui Hachimura and Thomas Bryant remain out for the Wizards.
- P.J. Washington is doubtful for the Hornets.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Atlanta Hawks
ATL -11, total: 213.0
Pace: OKC (13th), ATL (17th)
Situations to monitor:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is questionable for the Thunder.
- Bogdan Bogdanovic is questionable and De’Andre Hunter is listed as out for the Hawks.
Houston Rockets @ Boston Celtics
BOS -12.5, total: 212.0
Pace: HOU (1st), BOS (22nd)
Situations to monitor:
- Jaylen Brown and Robert Williams are listed as questionable for the Celtics.
- Kevin Porter is listed as questionable for the Rockets.
Indiana Pacers @ Chicago Bulls
CHI -4.5, total: 209.0
Pace: IND (19th), CHI (14th)
Situations to monitor:
- Nikola Vucevic is doubtful for the Bulls, as he has not yet turned in back-to-back negative COVID-19 tests.
Orlando Magic @ Milwaukee Bucks
MIL -12.5, total: 216.5
Pace: ORL (16th), MIL (10th)
Situations to monitor:
- Brook Lopez and Donte DiVincenzo remain out for the Bucks.
- Cole Anthony is listed as questionable for the Magic.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ New Orleans Pelicans
MIN -2.5, total: 213.5
Pace: MIN (11th), NOP (20th)
Situations to monitor:
- Naz Reid and Josh Okogie are questionable for the Timberwolves.
- Devonte’ Graham is listed as questionable for the Pelicans
Phoenix Suns @ San Antonio Spurs
PHO -6, total: 219.5
Pace: PHO (4th), SAS (5th)
Situations to monitor:
- Frank Kaminsky and Abdel Nader remain out for the Suns.
- Zach Collins is out and Jock Landale is questionable for the Spurs.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Utah Jazz
UTA -9.5, total: 222.0
Pace: MEM (12th), UTA (21st)
Situations to monitor:
- Dillon Brooks is listed as doubtful for the Grizzlies while De’Anthony Melton is listed as out.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Sacramento Kings
SAC -2.5, total: 217.0
Pace: PHI (30th), SAC (8th)
Situations to monitor:
- Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons remain out for the Sixers. Danny Green is considered questionable.
Five Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Below are noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Monday.
Jalen Suggs led the Magic with 69 touches last game with Cole Anthony out
Suggs averages 60.3 touches per game, so the increase wasn’t astronomical, but it certainly was impactful. He posted a 35.1% usage rate, nearly 10% higher than his season average, and add a 33.3% assist rate. Whether Cole Anthony is in or not, Suggs is going to have a massive role. If he’s out, however, that role becomes nearly unfadeable for his $5,000 price on DraftKings.
Jarrett Allen has a 19.8% rebounding rate with Evan Mobley and Collin Sexton off the floor this season
Making his return from a multi-game absence due to illness, Allen will resume the center duties for the Cavs but will be without his frontcourt-mate Evan Mobley, who is slated to miss the next few weeks. The 1.7% boost in rebounding rate is nothing astronomical, but taking away another elite rebounder only adds to the upside that Allen brings to the table. He’ averaged 1.14 DK points per minute in this scenario and at $7,700, he may come in lower owned in his first game back than he would on any other slate.
With Devonte’ Graham off of the court, no starter sees a higher uptick in usage rate than Jonas Valanciunas (+3.8%)
The absence of Graham doesn’t necessarily affect Valanciunas’ playing time, but he sees his usage rate spike to 27.4%, second to only Brandon Ingram on the team. He’s managed to add a 16.7% rebounding rate and 14.3% assist rate while posting 1.20 DK points per minute, giving him elite all-around upside. With Graham currently questionable for their game against the Wolves, we could see another increased dosage of Valanciunas Monday.
Desmond Bane posted a 25.0% usage rate, 10.0% rebounding rate, and a 67.1% true-shooting percentage last game
All three are well above his season averages as Bane stepped up with both Dillon Brooks and De’Anthony Melton sidelined. The game got out of hand early and likely put a cap on Bane’s minutes ceiling, but he has a chance at redemption (as does the entire Memphis team) on Monday against a tough opponent in the Jazz. Even so, with Melton ruled out and Brooks listed as doubtful, this is a slate where I’ll gladly go right back to the well with Bane.
Over his last two games with Robert Williams out, Al Horford has posted a 19.7% defensive rebounding rate and a 24.4% assist rate
Horford has benefited from a vacated body in the paint, as he’s been able to up his rebounding numbers while also get the ball in his hands more to create for teammates. His minutes have held steady, averaging 31.2 per game over the last two, but again, the opportunities have increased. If Williams misses a third consecutive game, Horford is once again in play, particularly in cash games.
Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look
The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,000)
- James Harden ($11,600)
- Kevin Durant ($11,000)
- LaMelo Ball ($10,200)
- Jayson Tatum ($10,100)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,700)
- Kevin Durant ($10,500)
- James Harden ($10,100)
- Jayson Tatum ($10,000)
- Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,900)
Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (1x)
- Kevin Durant (1x)
- James Harden (1x)
- Karl-Anthony Towns (1.1x)
- Domantas Sabonis (1.15x)
With Monday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Sunday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.
DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from DraftKings’ $200k Fadeaway ($50k to first) Sunday night.
PG: Cory Joseph (23.00)
SG: Frank Jackson (24.50)
SF: Zach LaVine (37.50)
PF: Jerami Grant (49.50)
C: JaMychal Green (31.00)
G: Cade Cunningham (50.50)
F: Anthony Davis (70.00)
UTIL: Scottie Barnes (39.25)
Total: 325.25
FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from FanDuel’s $200k NBA Shot ($40k to first) Sunday night.
PG: Jordan Poole (38.8)
PG: Cory Joseph (23.3)
SG: Cade Cunningham (45.4)
SG: DeMar DeRozan (48.7)
SF: Mikal Bridges (24.2)
SF: Andrew Wiggins (44.7)
PF: Aaron Gordon (36.0)
PF: Jerami Grant (47.3)
C: Anthony Davis (76.0)
Total: 384.4
SuperDraft GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from SuperDraft’s Daily Dime ($1k to first) Sunday night.
G: Zach LaVine (48.13)
G: Fred VanVleet (47.50)
G: Devin Booker (42.60)
F: DeMar DeRozan (62.50)
F: Scottie Barnes (60.38)
F: Aaron Gordon (57.75)
C: Julius Randle (55.20)
Total: 374.06
With Nikola Jokic ruled out after lock, the superstar options became extremely thin with the Lakers’ game having already locked. Many (over 30% of the field) ended up rostering Steph Curry, who turned in an absolute dud (under 30 fantasy points). This led to more unique builds vaulting to the top of the standings. Cade Cunningham and DeMar DeRozan were two high-scoring players that made it into both winning lineups (not SuperDraft, as it was a three-game slate excluding the Detroit game). While they came with heightened ownership, players like Scottie Barnes, Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole were unpopular plays that helped vault these lineups to the top.
