NBA DFS Preview – First Look (11/21)

Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive “first look” article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.

We have 4 games on tap on Sunday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.

Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.

NBA Vegas Data for November 21st | NBA DFS First Look

Los Angeles Lakers @ Detroit Pistons

LAL -7.5, total: 211.5

Pace: LAL (2nd), DET (19th)

Situations to monitor:

• LeBron James is listed as questionable for the Lakers, while Anthony Davis is listed as probable.
• Isaiah Stewart is listed as probable for the Pistons, while Killian Hayes is listed as questionable. Kelly Olynyk remains out.

New York Knicks @ Chicago Bulls

CHI -5, total: 209.5

Pace: NYK (23rd), CHI (14th)

Situations to monitor:

• Nikola Vucevic is questionable for the Bulls.
• Obi Toppin, Mitchell Robinson, and Taj Gibson are all questionable for the Knicks.

Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns

PHO -8, total: 209.5

Pace: DEN (29th), PHO (4th)

Situations to monitor:

• Nikola Jokic is questionable for the Nuggets. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter remain out.
• Frank Kaminsky and Abdel Nader have been ruled out for the Suns.

Toronto Raptors @ Golden State Warriors

GSW -9.5, total: 217.5

Pace: TOR (28th), GSW (7th)

Situations to monitor:

• OG Anunoby is questionable for the Raptors.
• Nemanja Bjelica and Gary Payton II are probable, Otto Porter is questionable, and Andre Iguodala has been ruled out for the Warriors.

Five Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Below are noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Sunday, November 21st.

Will Barton has posted a team-high 25.7% usage rate with Nikola Jokic, Michael Porter  and Jamal Murray off the floor this season.

The Nuggets have been decimated all season and Sunday is no different, with two of the aforementioned players ruled out and Jokic listed as questionable. If Jokic is indeed out, Barton should once again take on the lion’s share of offensive responsibilities. In addition to the 25.7% usage rate, he’s averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute with a 22.6% assist rate and 8.2% rebounding rate.

Cade Cunningham leads the Pistons in touches per game (68.0), time of possession per game (4.9 minutes), and usage rate (25.4%).

While his efficiency still has room to improve, Cunningham’s production has continued to improve over the last few games. He’s averaged 20.0 points, 7.3 rebounds, 6.7 assists, and 2.3 steals in 35.0 minutes over his last three games. Both his 44% mark from the field and 33% mark from distance are improvements over his efficiency in previous games. The scary part is that we haven’t even seen his ceiling. With most people likely jumping ship at $7,100 on DraftKings, Cunningham makes for an elite GPP play against a leaky Lakers defense.

Over his last five games, Isaiah Stewart is averaging 15.4 rebounding chances per game.

That mark leads the Pistons by nearly five rebounding chances. He’s averaged 8.2 rebounds per game over that span. While he comes in today with a minor ankle ailment, Stewart should have an exploitable matchup if he’s cleared to go. The Lakers have gotten crushed in the paint this season, ranking 26th against rim protectors per advanced DvP. That gives Stewart a chance to have a monster game on the glass.

Fred VanVleet sees a 4.3% usage bump with OG Anunoby off of the court this season.

While the direct beneficiaries in terms of minutes have been Pascal Siakam, Precious Achiuwa, and Chris Boucher, it’s been VanVleet who has seen the biggest jump in offensive opportunity. The matchup with the Warriors is arguably the worst on the slate, but if Anunoby is out, the Raptors will need their offense to come from somewhere. With Siakam likely tied up with Draymond Green, VanVleet could have some additional wiggle room and the opportunity to capitalize on Anunoby’s potential absence.

Julius Randle has averaged 23.8 points, 10.0 rebounds, 5.6 assists, and 1.2 steals over his last five games against the Bulls.

While the Bulls have improved defensively, they’ve still had trouble stopping Randle. These two teams last met at the end of October, a game in which Randle posted 13 points, 16 rebounds, and nine assists, finishing only one assist shy of a triple-double. Chicago will likely continue to struggle to defend Randle if Nikola Vucevic remains out. If he’s in, that only provides more opportunities for defensive peripherals for the Knicks’ star.

Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look

The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. Nikola Jokic ($11,400) (questionable)
2. Stephen Curry ($11,200)
3. Anthony Davis ($10,600) (probable)
4. LeBron James ($10,400)
5. Russell Westbrook ($10,200)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. Nikola Jokic ($11,300) (questionable)
2. Stephen Curry ($10,800)
3. Anthony Davis ($10,300) (probable)
4. LeBron James ($10,000)
5. Russell Westbrook ($9,500)

Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. Nikola Jokic (1x)
2. Stephen Curry (1.05x)
3. Julius Randle (1.15x)
4. Devin Booker (1.2x)
5. DeMar DeRozan (1.25x)

With Sunday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Saturday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.

DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look

Below is the winning lineup from DraftKings’ $400k Fadeaway ($100k to first) last night.

PG: Dennis Schroder (43.50)
SG: RJ Hampton (42.25)
SF: Jayson Tatum (55.00)
PF: Grant Williams (33.50)
C: Al Horford (38.25)
G: Jalen Suggs (29.00)
F: Jarred Vanderbilt (31.00)
UTIL: Giannis Antetokounmpo (74.00)

Total: 346.50

FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look

Below is the winning lineup from FanDuel’s $400k Clutch Shot ($100k to first) last night.

PG: LaMelo Ball (50.5)
PG: Dennis Schroder (40.8)
SG: RJ Hampton (39.5)
SG: Desmond Bane (27.0)
SF: Giannis Antetokounmpo (73.5)
SF: Tobias Harris (37.1)
PF: Bobby Portis (45.0)
PF: Georges Niang (25.8)
C: Clint Capela (44.5)

Total: 383.7

On Saturday, we saw Giannis Antetokounmpo come in under 25% ownership in each big GPP, a lower number than we ever get him at. This made him nearly essential if you wanted a lineup that finished in the top-2%, as his 70-plus fantasy points led the slate by nearly 20.

The Orlando Magic value play with Cole Anthony out was popular, but it paid off. Both Jalen Suggs (over 50% ownership) and RJ Hampton found themselves in the winning lineups. Dennis Schroder was also a popular play on FanDuel. His ownership on DraftKings was not nearly what it got to on FanDuel, however, making him an elite option.