Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive “first look” article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.
We have 11 games on tap on Monday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.
Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.
NBA Vegas Data for Nov. 15 | NBA DFS First Look
Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers
BOS -2.5, total: 200.5
Pace: BOS (25th), CLE (27th)
Situations to monitor:
- Jaylen Brown remains out for the Celtics, while Al Horford and Josh Richardson are listed as probable.
- Lauri Markkanen, Kevin Love and Collin Sexton remain out for the Cavs.
Sacramento Kings @ Detroit Pistons
SAC -4.5, total: 213.0
Pace: SAC (8th), DET (20th)
Situations to monitor:
- Kelly Olynyk remains out for the Pistons.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Washington Wizards
WAS -3, total: 213.5
Pace: NOP (18th), WAS (17th)
Situations to monitor:
- Bradley Beal has been ruled out for the Wizards, while Rui Hachimura, Thomas Bryant and Davis Bertans remain out.
- Zion Williamson remains without a firm timetable for return for the Pelicans.
Orlando Magic @ Atlanta Hawks
ATL -10.5, total: 214.0
Pace: ORL (19th), ATL (16th)
Situations to monitor:
- Jalen Suggs is listed as questionable for the Magic.
- De’Andre Hunter is listed as out for the Hawks.
Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks
NYK -3.5, total: 216.0
Pace: IND (22nd), NYK (24th)
Situations to monitor:
- Chris Duarte is listed as questionable for the Pacers.
- Nerlens Noel is listed as questionable for the Knicks.
Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks
DAL -4, total: 209.0
Pace: DEN (29th), DAL (21st)
Situations to monitor:
- Michael Porter and Jamal Murray remain out for the Nuggets, while Will Barton’s status is up in the air after he missed Sunday’s game with a back injury.
- Maxi Kleber remains out for the Mavericks.
Houston Rockets @ Memphis Grizzlies
MEM -11, total: 220.0
Pace: HOU (1st), MEM (14th)
Situations to monitor:
- none
Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves
PHO -3.5, total: 221.0
Pace: PHO (4th), MIN (9th)
Situations to monitor:
- Deandre Ayton is listed as questionable for the Suns.
Miami Heat @ Oklahoma City Thunder
MIA -9.5, total: 210.5
Pace: MIA (26th), OKC (11th)
Situations to monitor:
- Jimmy Butler is listed as questionable, while Bam Adebayo is listed as probable for the heat. Markieff Morris remains out, as does Victor Oladipo.
Toronto Raptors @ Portland Trail Blazers
POR -2.5, total: 212.5
Pace: TOR (28th), POR (13th)
Situations to monitor:
- Damian Lillard is listed as questionable for the Blazers.
- Fred VanVleet, Precious Achiuwa and Chris Boucher are all listed as questionable for the Raptors.
Chicago Bulls @ Los Angeles Lakers
LAL -1, total: 218.5
Pace: CHI (15th), LAL (3rd)
Situations to monitor:
- LeBron James remains out for the Lakers.
- Nikola Vucevic remains out for the Bulls.
Five Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Below are noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Monday.
In 154.9 minutes with Bradley Beal off the court this season, Spencer Dinwiddie has posted a 31.1% usage rate.
Many may still be taken aback when considering paying over $7,000 on DraftKings for Dinwiddie, but if Beal sits out again, it’s almost a no-brainer. His 31.1% usage rate puts him up there with the stars in the NBA, while his 44.0% assist rate and 12.2% rebounding rate are elite peripheral contributions. This has all helped him generate 1.37 DK points per minute, making him an elite mid-tier target if Beal misses his second consecutive game.
DeMar DeRozan has averaged 27.8 points, 8.0 assists and 6.8 rebounds in his last four games against the Lakers in the Staples Center.
Narratives are not my forte; I leave that to David Jones. That said, the “DeRozan returns to Los Angeles” narrative is one that I get on board with seemingly every time. Being from Compton, DeRozan has spent his career praising LA and referencing his upbringing and excitement every time he returns to play in the city. His production seems to align with that excitement. Now, add in his historical production with the current usage bump he sees with no Nikola Vucevic, and a 27.8/8.0/6.8 stat line seems like a realistic target with room for even more upside against a Lakers team that ranks top-three in pace.
Over his last two games without Collin Sexton, Darius Garland is averaging 21.5 points, 6.5 assists, 3.0 rebounds and 1.5 steals in 35.4 minutes per game.
The frontcourt isn’t the only area where the Cavs are getting thinner, as Sexton is expected to miss time with an MCL injury. In his absence, Darius Garland has quickly shown the ability and willingness to step up. He’s seen an uptick in both minutes and volume, naturally leading to an uptick in production. His touches and usage should continue to elevate in Sexton’s absence and a matchup with the Celtics should provide another opportunity for Garland to have a productive outing.
Despite shooting only 31.5% from the field this season, Cade Cunningham leads the Pistons with a 25.5% usage rate.
His inefficiencies have caused his price to remain low at only $5,500 on DraftKings, but it’s not often you get the team leader in usage rate for that cheap, let alone a usage rate over 25%. Cunningham has taken at least 10 shots in all but two games this season with at least seven three-point attempts in five of seven games. If his shot is falling, there’s no stopping him from reaching a massive ceiling. For $5,500, I will continue to pull the trigger to get ahead of the ceiling game on the horizon.
Isaiah Stewart has seen a 4.5 minute-per-game boost with Kelly Olynyk out.
Stewart had been struggling for consistent minutes prior to Olynyk’s injury, averaging under 24 minutes per game, but has since averaged over 28 minutes per game in the two games without Olynyk. This is the case even after dealing with foul trouble in the first game that hampered his minutes’ upside.
He’s seen just about a 10% jump in DraftKings and FanDuel points per game and a slight 1.11% jump in usage rate, but we have yet to see a ceiling game from Stewart. A 0.97 DK-point-per-minute producer last season, we have every reason in the world to expect better days ahead for Stewart and a matchup with the Kings could get him started on the right foot on Monday.
Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look
The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Nikola Jokic ($11,700)
- Luka Doncic ($11,300)
- Russell Westbrook ($10,800)
- Anthony Davis ($10,400)
- Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Nikola Jokic ($11,500)
- Anthony Davis ($10,700)
- Luka Doncic ($10,600)
- Ja Morant ($10,000)
- Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,800)
Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Nikola Jokic (1x)
- Anthony Davis (1x)
- Luka Doncic (1x)
- Russell Westbrook (1x)
- Karl-Anthony Towns (1.1x)
With Monday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Sunday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.
DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from DraftKings’ $200k Fadeaway ($50k to first) Sunday night.
PG: Stephen Curry (56.0)
SG: Anfernee Simons (30.25)
SF: Miles Bridges (39.0)
PF: Draymond Green (30.50)
C: LaMarcus Aldridge (33.0)
G: Chris Paul (38.75)
F: Nassir Little (26.75)
UTIL: JaVale McGee (47.00)
Total: 301.25
FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the optimal FanDuel lineup from Sunday.
PG: Lonzo Ball (27.5)
PG: Chris Paul (43.6)
SG: Anfernee Simons (30.0)
SG: CJ McCollum (30.4)
SF: Eric Gordon (25.1)
SF: DeMar DeRozan (48.9)
PF: John Collins (29.7)
PF: Kevin Durant (50.6)
C: JaVale McGee (48.3)
Total: 334.1
FanDuel and DraftKings had relatively different slates, as FanDuel opted to include the Bucks/Hawks game, pushing their main to a six-game slate instead of a five-game slate. Because of this, the optimals look a bit different.
Using the backtesting function and running 150 lineups on the FTNDaily Lineup Edge Optimizer, we can see that only one player from this game (John Collins) even cracked the highest-scoring lineup. The gem (on both sites) was JaVale McGee. He came in under-rostered relative to previous slates and put up his best output of the season, logging nearly 50 fantasy points and proving to be a tournament-winner.
Anfernee Simons turned out to be good chalk in the absence of Damian Lillard, but the same cannot be said for CJ McCollum, who failed to crack the winning lineup on DraftKings but still snuck into the optimal on FanDuel.
