Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive “first look” article for that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.
We have nine games on tap for Monday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.
Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.
NBA Vegas Data for Nov. 1 | NBA DFS First Look
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Charlotte Hornets
CHA -5, total: 223.5
Pace: CLE (24th), CHA (10th)
Situations to monitor:
- Isaac Okoro has been ruled out for the Cavaliers.
San Antonio Spurs @ Indiana Pacers
IND -4, total: 218.5
Pace: SAS (T5th), IND (11th)
Situations to monitor:
- Malcolm Brogdon and Caris LeVert are both questionable for the Pacers, while T.J. Warren remains out and Jeremy Lamb is doubtful.
- Doug McDermott is out for the Spurs.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Philadelphia 76ers
PHI -6, total: 220.5
Pace: POR (3rd), PHI (30th)
Situations to monitor:
- none
Washington Wizards @ Atlanta Hawks
ATL -5.5, total: 222.0
Pace: WAS (T17th), ATL (23rd)
Situations to monitor:
- Daniel Gafford is listed as questionable for the Wizards, while Rui Hachimura and Thomas Bryant remain out.
Chicago Bulls @ Boston Celtics
BOS -2, total: 217.5
Pace: CHI (T21st), BOS (14th)
Situations to monitor:
- Coby White and Patrick Williams remain out for the Bulls
Toronto Raptors @ New York Knicks
NYK -6.5, total: 211.0
Pace: TOR (29th), NYK (T24th)
Situations to monitor:
- Nerlens Noel is listed as questionable for the Knicks.
Denver Nuggets @ Memphis Grizzlies
MEM -1.5, total: 215.5
Pace: DEN (T26th), MEM (T15th)
Situations to monitor:
- none
Orlando Magic @ Minnesota Timberwolves
MIN -9, total: 216.5
Pace: ORL (T26th), MIN (T5th)
Situations to monitor:
- none
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Clippers
LAC -11, total: 212.5
Pace: OKC (20th), LAC (7th)
Situations to monitor:
- Serge Ibaka and Marcus Morris remain out for the Clippers
Five Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Below are noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Monday.
Dejounte Murray ranks fourth in the NBA in touches per game (89.3).
Murray has officially broken out to kick off the 2021-22 NBA season, as he’s been the focal point of the rebuilding Spurs team on both ends of the floor. He’s been able to turn these touches into 6.7 minutes of possession per game and 17.8 points, 8.8 assists, 8.5 rebounds and 2.2 steals per game. Against a Pacers defense that bleeds production almost everywhere on the court, Murray is live for a triple-double once again.
Spencer Dinwiddie is averaging more time of possession per game (7.5 minutes) than each of Russell Westbrook, Damian Lillard and LaMelo Ball.
A rather surprising bit of information considering how high the usage rate of his backcourt mate (Bradley Beal) is, Dinwiddie has carved out an integral role in this offense. He’s averaged 71.2 touches per game with the second-highest usage rate on the team (26.3) but is often not a Wizards’ player that people target. If looking for leverage off Beal, Dinwiddie is the answer.
John Collins has posted at least 26 points in three of his last five games against the Washington Wizards, dating back to March 2020.
Collins is a player that thrives against athletic and undersized frontcourts, and that’s exactly what he gets in a matchup with the Wizards, whether Daniel Gafford plays or not. Collins also comes in with some momentum, having posted at least 38 DK points in three of his last four games despite a down game against the Sixers where he went 3-9 from the field. With two double-doubles in his last three games, Collins should be able to keep his stellar play going for a reasonable price tag ($6,800) on DraftKings.
Over his last three games, Scottie Barnes has averaged 20.0 points, 9.3 rebounds and 3.0 assists in 35.9 minutes per game.
It looks like Nick Nurse’s desire to get Barnes more involved in the offense has come to fruition, as the rookie looks like a legitimate rookie of the year candidate early on. His matchup with the Knicks is an unfavorable one, but he’s one of the few Raptors that feels immune to a potential blowout, as he’s seen 30 or more minutes every single game this season. His price is getting up there, but it’s completely warranted.
Over the last three games with Marcus Morris out, Luke Kennard has averaged 30 minutes per game.
While Morris out has naturally shifted more playing time to Nicolas Batum and Ivica Zubac, it’s been Kennard who has been the biggest beneficiary. He’s turned his uptick in playing time into 15.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game, which, at $4,400 on DraftKings, is more than serviceable. He brings upside from beyond the arc and in the steals category, making him a worthwhile option at his price on DraftKings.
Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look
The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Nikola Jokic ($11,000)
- Paul George ($10,700)
- Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,500)
- Joel Embiid ($10,300)
- Domantas Sabonis ($10,100)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Nikola Jokic ($11,200)
- Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,400)
- Paul George ($10,100)
- Ja Morant ($9,900)
- Joel Embiid ($9,700)
Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Joel Embiid (1x)
- Domantas Sabonis (1x)
- Nikola Jokic (1x)
- Karl-Anthony Towns (1.05x)
- Damian Lillard (1.05x)
- Bradley Beal (1.05x)
With Monday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Sunday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
The Sunday slate was a messy one, as the Bucks were ravaged with injuries on a slate where there were already only a few studs and little value to choose from. With the Bucks value being so popular, it was actually the Hornets players who provided the most production (in the lineups below), while the popular Bucks value didn’t quite get there.
Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.
DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the perfect DraftKings lineup from Sunday.
PG: James Harden (52.50)
SG: Kelly Oubre (48.75)
SF: Miles Bridges (43.50)
PF: Thanasis Antetokounmpo (31.75)
C: Jusuf Nurkic (37.50)
G: LaMelo Ball (52.25)
F: DeAndre’ Bembry (28.75)
UTIL: P.J. Washington (28.50)
Total: 323.5
FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from FanDuel’s $350k Clutch Shot ($40k to first) Sunday night.
PG: LaMelo Ball (50.3)
PG: Anfernee Simons (20.7)
SG: Kelly Oubre (46.9)
SG: Grayson Allen (24.2)
SF: Carmelo Anthony (44.6)
SF: Miles Bridges (42.7)
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo (52.4)
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge (19.1)
C: Rudy Gobert (40.6)
Total: 341.5
The short slate made for a lower score among winning lineups, but the most notable part is that the perfect lineup on DraftKings had James Harden, while the winning lineup on FanDuel had Giannis Antetokounmpo. Given the pricing discrepancy between the two sites, it made sense to simply opt for the better per-dollar option on each, which was exactly the case above.
Also notable was the number of Hornets players that did well, as Kelly Oubre found himself in both lineups at a low ownership percentage (relative to a four-game slate), while LaMelo Ball joined him on both and Miles Bridges was present on FanDuel.
