NBA DFS Preview – First Look (10/21)

After a two-game NBA DFS slate that served as an appetizer to kick off the start of the season Tuesday, Wednesday night was the entree. We had 11 games and a ton of high-scoring performances, and because pricing is usually soft to open the season, you could have essentially played anyone you wanted.

Thursday, we return to a smaller slate with just three games but plenty of DFS action to be had.

Let’s get after it.

Dallas Mavericks @ Atlanta Hawks

ATL -2.5, total: 225
2020 pace: Dallas (25th), Atlanta (23rd)

Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat

MIL -2.5, total: 223.5
2020 pace: Milwaukee (2nd), Miami (29th)

Los Angeles Clippers @ Golden State Warriors

GSW -3.5, total: 227.5
2020 pace: Los Angeles (28th), Golden State (2nd)

Situations to Monitor

• Jrue Holiday left Tuesday’s game with a heel injury but is probable to play here. It’s possible that he isn’t 100% healthy, but with Milwaukee already short-handed, they will need him in this game.
• No surprise, but both Kawhi Leonard and Serge Ibaka have been ruled out for the Clippers.
• Kyle Lowry will make his Miami debut. It will be interesting to see the distribution in usage and touches between not only Lowry, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, but also Tyler Herro, who put together an impressive preseason.

Five Stats to Know

Paul George sported a 35.7% usage rate with Kawhi Leonard and Serge Ibaka off the floor last season

George is in line for a huge season and was a consensus first-round selection in season-long drafts. With Leonard not expected to return to action until around April, George will have to carry this Clippers team, something he did during last year’s playoff run. With Leonard (and Ibaka) off the floor last season, George’s usage rate climbed to a whopping 35.7%, while also sporting a 21% rebounding rate and averaging a healthy 1.35 fantasy points per minute in the split. And during the playoffs, George averaged just over 85 touches per game, up from his regular season average of 68.8 per contest. No surprise but George should be considered an absolute building block on this slate.

39.3% of points scored against the Heat last season came from beyond the arc

That was the highest rate in the league, which makes this matchup between Miami and Milwaukee very interesting. We’ve seen these teams square off quite a bit over the last few seasons and in all honesty, the Bucks matchup very well against them because they also let you shoot threes. 37.9% of the points scored against Milwaukee came from beyond the arc, the third-highest rate in basketball. Miami has struggled against this unit because they don’t have a ton of three-point shooting and the Bucks can really protect the rim. This could make for an interesting spot for Duncan Robinson, who I have used against the Bucks in the past, while Grayson Allen on the other side is a viable value play. He started for Donte DiVincenzo on opening night, played 28 minutes and attempted 10 three-pointers.

Luka Doncic averaged 8.9 minutes of possession per game in 2020, the highest mark in the NBA

I don’t need to tell you how amazing Luka is … but I’m going to anyway. He led the league in average minutes of possession last season, while sporting impressive rates, such as a 36% usage rate, 23% rebounding rate and 25% assist rate. He averaged over 1.50 fantasy points per minute last season and although he faces an improving Atlanta defensive unit, fading Doncic on a three-game slate is a very, very risky proposition. 

Ivica Zubac posted a 34% rebounding rate with Kawhi Leonard and Serge Ibaka off the floor last year

Zubac’s minutes were very up-and-down when the Clippers were healthy last season but whenever Ibaka was out of the lineup, he became a lot more trustworthy. His rebounding rate skyrocketed to 34% with both Ibaka and Leonard off the court last season and as a starter last year, Zubac averaged 10.1 points, 7.6 rebounds and nearly a block per contest. Zubac averaged 1.07 fantasy points per minute with both players off the floor last year and if he can log 25-30 minutes tonight, he should have a very productive game, especially against a Warriors team that was bottom-five in points per game allowed off putbacks last season.

Jordan Poole posted a 31.3% usage rate in Golden State’s opening game

With Klay Thompson still sidelined for the Warriors, Poole is going to have to play a rather large role going forward. And that was exactly what we saw during the season opener, as he scored 20 points to go along with three assists, two rebounds and a steal in 25 minutes of work. You’d like to see more minutes, but the Warriors went with an 11-man rotation against the Lakers, while Damion Lee logged 29 minutes. He is a viable value plat at $3,600 on DraftKings, by the way. But Poole had the usage, which is important, too, sporting a 31.3% usage rate in the game. He also attempted 18 field goals and if his minutes can get closer to the 30-mark, Poole could be a really strong fantasy option until Thompson returns to the lineup.

On a three-game slate with a handful of superstars to choose from, it is important to select the right star. Doncic and George would probably be my two favorite options, but it is interesting in tournaments because we know players like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Trae Young and Stephen Curry have immense upside, too.

Wednesday’s GPP Performances

DraftKings highest scorer

Jaylen Brown (76.25)

DraftKings optimal lineup

De’Aaron Fox (45.75)
Chris Duarte (39.25)
Scottie Barnes (23.75)
Domantas Sabonis (55.25)
Montrezl Harrell (36.75)
CJ McCollum (57.50)
Jaylen Brown (76.25)
Robert Williams (50.50)

FanDuel highest scorer

Jaylen Brown (73.8)

FanDuel optimal lineup

LaMelo Ball (56.3)
Ja Morant (57.2)
Tyrese Maxey (34.9)
Zach LaVine (52.4)
Kyle Kuzma (34.5)
Jaylen Brown (73.8)
Mo Bamba (40.8)
Julius Randle (60.1)
Evan Mobley (42.8)

SuperDraft highest scorer

Mitchell Robinson (77.85)

SuperDraft optimal lineup

Tyrese Maxey (63.4)
Zach LaVine (66.56)
LaMelo Ball (72.3)
Robert Covington (38.0)
Julius Randle (71.3)
Chris Duarte (75.52)
Mitchell Robinson (77.85)

This was clearly a crazy slate, and players such as Jaylen Brown, Robert Williams and Mitchell Robinson certainly benefited from a pair of overtime periods. In terms of popularity on this slate, Tyrese Maxey and Jalen Green were rostered quite a bit Wednesday, especially on DraftKings, along with LaMelo Ball. For the first huge slate of the season, we had a ton of huge performances but also had some duds due to blowouts and/or foul trouble. 

Welcome back to NBA DFS.