Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive first look article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.
Looking for an edge in your NBA DFS contests? Our NBA package includes a state-of-the-art LineupEDGE Optimizer, advanced DvP and On/Off tools, player projection models, and more to consistently vault you to the top of the NBA leaderboards in your DFS contests.
We have six games on Sunday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.
Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.
NBA Vegas Data for January 2nd | NBA DFS First Look
Orlando Magic @ Boston Celtics
BOS -10.5, total: 215.0
Pace: ORL (17th), BOS (22nd)
Situations to monitor:
- Cole Anthony, Chuma Okeke, Jalen Suggs, Markelle Fultz, Michael Carter-Williams, Robin Lopez, Hassani Gravett, and B.J. Johnson have been ruled out for the Magic. Mo Bamba and Mychal Mulder are listed as questionable.
- Jayson Tatum and Robert Williams are listed as questionable for the Celtics while Enes Freedom has been ruled out.
Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers
CLE -3.5, total: 215.5
Pace: IND (23rd), CLE (21st)
Situations to monitor:
- Malcolm Brogdon, Chris Duarte, T.J. Warren, Jeremy Lamb, T.J. McConnell, and Kelan Martin have been ruled out for the Pacers.
- Darius Garland, Cedi Osman, Collin Sexton, and Ricky Rubio remain out for the Cavs while Dylan Windler is listed as questionable.
Miami Heat @ Sacramento Kings
MIA -3.5, total: 221.0
Pace: MIA (27th), SAC (7th)
Situations to monitor:
- Bam Adebayo, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Duncan Robinson, P.J. Tucker, KZ Okpala, and Marcus Garrett have been ruled out for the Heat. Dewayne Dedmon is listed as questionable.
- Richaun Holmes has been ruled out and Terence Davis is listed as questionable for the Kings.
Phoenix Suns @ Charlotte Hornets
PHO -2.5, total: 230.5
Pace: PHO (5th), CHA (2nd)
Situations to monitor:
- Deandre Ayton, JaVale McGee, Frank Kaminsky, Jae Crowder, and Abdel Nader remain out for the Suns.
- Miles Bridges and P.J. Washington are listed as questionable for the Hornets.
Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder
DAL -8.5, total: 209.5
Pace: DAL (29th), OKC (13th)
Situations to monitor:
- Trey Burke, Brandon Knight, Willie Cauley-Stein, Boban Marjanovic, and Isaiah Thomas are listed as out for the Mavericks. Kristaps Porzingis and Frank Ntilikina are listed as questionable.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Darius Bazley, and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl are listed as out for the Thunder. Tre Mann and Luguentz Dort are listed as questionable.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Lakers
LAL -8, total: 224.5
Pace: MIN (6th), LAL (1st)
Situations to monitor:
- Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell have been ruled out for the Timberwolves while Anthony Edwards, Jarred Vanderbilt and Taurean Prince are listed as questionable.
- Anthony Davis remains out for the Lakers while LeBron James is listed as probable.
Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Below are three noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for January 2nd, 2022.
In two games without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander this season, Josh Giddey has averaged 17.0 points, 8.0 assists, and 7.0 rebounds per game
Equating to over 39 DraftKings and 37 FanDuel points per game, Giddey has been a legitimate triple-double threat when Gilgeous-Alexander has been on the sidelines. He sees nearly a 5% bump in usage rate (up to 26.1%) and has averaged 32.42 minutes, a 10.82-minute uptick from his season average of 21.6. Even at his elevated price, Giddey makes a ton of sense on Sunday’s NBA slate.
In 142.0 minutes with Deandre Ayton, Frank Kaminsky, and JaVale McGee off of the floor this season, Jalen Smith has averaged 18.0 points and 14.2 rebounds per-36-minutes
Smith has recently been thrust into a larger role in this Phoenix frontcourt and he’s certainly made the most of it. His 18.0 points and 14.2 rebounds per-36-minutes equate to 1.12 DraftKings points per minute, making him a great value piece at $5,000 with the assumption that he should play at least 24-26 minutes on Sunday.
Over his last three games, Malik Monk has averaged 19.3 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 1.3 assists per game
Monk entered the Lakers’ starting lineup three games ago and has made a world of a difference on the offensive end. He’s shot 55.9% from the field and 41.2% from three over this span while playing 33.6 minutes per game, despite a group of the Lakers’ wings returning from protocols last time out. With Monk’s recent stretch of play, it would make sense for Frank Vogel to keep him in the starting lineup, making him a strong value piece below $5,000 on DraftKings if that remains the case.
NBA Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look
For the top value plays on the slate, check out the Cheat Sheets for our analysts’ exposures and the NBA Optimizer for the best point-per-dollar plays.
Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look
The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- LeBron James ($12,000)
- Luka Doncic ($10,800)
- Jayson Tatum ($10,600) – QUESTIONABLE
- Russell Westbrook ($10,300)
- Jimmy Butler ($10,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- LeBron James ($11,400)
- Luka Doncic ($10,000)
- Jayson Tatum ($9,900) – QUESTIONABLE
- Russell Westbrook ($9,700)
- Kristaps Porzingis ($9,600) – QUESTIONABLE
Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- LeBron James (1x)
- Luka Doncic (1x)
- LaMelo Ball (1.1x)
- Jayson Tatum (1.15x)
- Russell Westbrook (1.15x)
With Sunday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Saturday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.
DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the optimal lineup on DraftKings from last night.
- PG: Bradley Beal (63.5)
- SG: Bryn Forbes (41.25)
- SF: Amir Coffey (35.0)
- PF: Otto Porter Jr. (47.75)
- C: Luka Garza (40.0)
- G: Facundo Campazzo (60.0)
- F: Hamidou Diallo (71.5)
- UTIL: James Harden (73.0)
Total: 432.0
FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the optimal lineup on FanDuel from last night.
- PG: Eric Bledsoe (47.6)
- PG: Facundo Campazzo (61.8)
- SG: Bradley Beal (64.9)
- SG: James Harden (66.9)
- SF: Justise Winslow (28.4)
- SF: Hamidou Diallo (74.8)
- PF: Otto Porter (49.4)
- PF: Kyle Kuzma (50.9)
- C: Luka Garza (36.8)
Total: 481.50
Saturday clocked in as one of the highest-scoring slates of the season, as optimal lineups had multiple players cross the 60-fantasy point threshold. Hamidou Diallo wound up as the highest FanDuel scorer on the slate, rendering your lineup dead if you didn’t play him given his ownership rate (on DraftKings, too). The surprise value came from Otto Porter, who went nearly 10x at less than 1% ownership on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
