MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! Nothing stops the Association. The NBA rolls along on a TNT Tuesday night with nine games as we race to the end of the 82-game marathon season. Some bad teams, like the Spurs, are shutting players down, while other bad teams, like the Raptors, are bringing guys back for one more look at what the future might hold.
Good teams in tight seeding races, like the Nuggets, are trying to thread the needle of winning while resting their stars for the playoffs. There are games featuring two good teams playing, games with two good teams playing poorly, and games with good teams playing bad teams.
There’s a lot to watch and a lot to learn from Tuesday’s slate. Let’s go through each game, see what might happen, what we need to watch for, and hopefully, find a wager or two worth our hard-earned money.
NBA Best Bets for Tuesday
Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards
Current Line – Bucks -13, 226
My Projection – Bucks 117, Wizards 105
Key Injuries – Damian Lillard, Tyus Jones, Kyle Kuzma and Bilal Coulibaly are out.
The Wizards have been one of the worst teams in the NBA in terms of total record, but they’ve been frisky enough to cover spreads. At their best, the Wizards had some young talent that pushed hard and could keep games close with their fast pace and three point shooting late in games. At this point, they are missing several key players and are relying on other players who would struggle to play serious minutes for other teams. Deni Avdija and Corey Kispert have shown flashes of potential goodness, but the rest is just a mess. Washington can still play hard and try to win without sabotaging their chances at the top draft pick, but not even max effort can keep this poor of a roster from losing by a large margin.
The Bucks are rounding into form. They are just 3-3 in their last six games, but all three losses were in close games against some of the league’s best teams. Giannis Antetokounmpo is having one of the best seasons of his career. Damian Lillard is finally looking comfortable and shooting well. Khris Middleton is healthy and Brook Lopez has been healthy. Those four make up one of the better cores in the NBA. The Bucks have size, rim protectors, shot creators and shot makers and all at a high level. They still need to find a higher level if they want to beat the Celtics in a seven game playoff series, but with every passing game that seems more possible. Milwaukee can win this game by a lot and cover the big spread you see above, but I like a different bet.
This looks like a great game to bet under the total. Both teams play again Wednesday, and we generally see a slower pace in the first night of back-to-back games. The Bucks will likely control the flow of the game and given the travel spot and lack of Damian Lillard I expect them to keep the pace down and play their very best defense. Lillard makes them better, but without him there is more defensive talent on the floor and plenty to stop what’s left of the Wizards. Washington is without a true point guard to initiate the offense and create chances for others. Avdija and Kispert will face long, athletic defenders that have great help defenders behind them. Maybe things get out of hand late in a blowout, but I have this game well under the currently posted total. I’m betting on this being a slow, ugly game with less than 226 points.
Bet
Milwaukee Bucks/Washington Wizards Under 226 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors
Current Line – Mavericks -1, 232
My Projection – Mavericks 119, Warriors 115
Key Injuries – Jonathan Kuminga and Dereck Lively are questionable.
The Warriors are fighting for a chance to make the playoffs. The Warriors are currently the 10 seed in the Western Conference, the final spot in the Play-In Tournament. Golden State will have to win two games in a row to get the final spot in the playoffs if they can remain 10. They have won four games in a row and have a two-game lead and the tiebreaker over the Rockets, who are 11th. The defense is playing great as long as Draymond Green is on the floor and the offense is great with Stephen Curry on the floor. Golden State has learned to play close to even in minutes without either Green or Curry, but a lot of that success is due to Jonathan Kuminga. The former No. 7 pick in the draft has grown into a potentially great player this season. Kuminga has embraced the Golden State philosophy of passing the ball quickly and not holding onto it which slows down their attacking. He’s been good defensively and provides a physicality on offense the Warriors usually lack. With Kuminga, the Warriors are a pretty good team. Without him, as they may be tonight, the Warriors are still good but certainly limited.
Dallas has won 11 of their last 12. The Mavericks have settled into lineups they are comfortable and thanks to trades made midseason have quality depth around Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. The two stars have played great together or separately. Irving has carried the team when Doncic has missed games and vice versa. Together, they are the base of an offense that is terrifying for defenders especially late in the game when possessions become more difficult and more important. Daniel Gafford has been a perfect fit at center rebounding well and finishing in the pick and roll. P.J. Washington and Derrick Jones can cover for Luka and Kyrie on defense without hampering them on offense. I think the Mavericks are one of the better teams in the NBA and I rate them much better then the Warriors. Golden State have historically been good at home, but they are 18-19 at home straight up and 14-21-2 against the spread at home. Dallas is the best team in the NBA on the road with a record of 25-12 against the spread. My gut says Mavericks. My model says Mavericks. Let’s bet on the Mavericks.
Bet
Dallas Mavericks ML (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Los Angeles Lakers at Toronto Raptors +12, 232.5
LeBron James and Anthony Davis are questionable as they always seem to be. The Raptors are without Scottie Barnes, Gary Trent and Jakob Poeltl, but will have Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett back on the court. If the Lakers have both of their stars, then this line makes sense, but if either of them rests this should be a few points lower. Los Angeles is the better and playing to win while Toronto’s roster has been ravaged by injury and they are tanking to protect their draft pick. I expect the Lakers to win comfortably, but I’m certainly not betting anything until I know who is playing and even then, I’m not interested in laying this many points with a veteran team on the road who plays again on the road Wednesday. No bets for me in this game.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Philadelphia 76ers +5.5, 224
Tyrese Maxey, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams are questionable. Each of those players’ ability to play or not will swing these odds in a meaningful way. If Maxey is out and the Thunder have everyone, they should be double-digit favorites. If Maxey can play, but the Thunder are missing their two best players, I can make a case for the 76ers being the favorite. Too much can change before tip off for us to bet this game right now. If I do make any bets later, you can find them in the #nba-plays channel of the FTN Bets Discord.
New York Knicks at Miami Heat -3, 207
I would love to see these two teams face off in the playoffs, but we’ll need some luck for that to happen. Tuesday’s game should be great to watch, but as games that are entertaining often are, this one is not a good one to bet. The Knicks are still missing OG Anunoby and Julius Randle, but they are playing good basketball and matchup well with the Heat. Miami seems to be rounding into form like they do at the end of every season, but they are managing around injuries. If Jalen Brunson can get help scoring from a teammate, the Knicks are a very live dog. If Brunson can’t get any assistance, the Heat should grind out a victory Tuesday. I make Miami a two-point favorite with a total of 208, which is basically the same as the current odds. I’ll be watching this game closely, but I won’t be betting on it.
Houston Rockets at Minnesota Timberwolves -7.5, 215.5
The Rockets were the hottest team in the NBA, winning 11 consecutive games, before losing to the Mavericks in a game that was never close Sunday. Houston had found a way to push pace and create good shots on offense without Alperen Sengun, but most of their success came against bad teams or bad defenses. Tonight, they face one of the best teams and the best defense in the NBA. The Timberwolves do miss Karl-Anthony Towns, but continue to win games without him. Anthony Edwards seems to get better every night and Rudy Gobert is the lynchpin of a great defensive unit. I make Minnesota a six-point favorite with a total of 216 which shows a little value on Houston, but I think my model is overrating the Rockets win streak. The Timberwolves can and should win this game by margin, but I think these odds are correct so I can’t advise any wagers.
San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets -15.5, 223.5
The Spurs shut down Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan for the rest of the season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they sit Keldon Johnson the rest of the way either. That still leaves Victor Wembanyama, who can keep games close on his own, but tells me pretty clearly that the tank is rolling along at full speed. San Antonio showed signs of life but are now tied with the Hornets for the third-worst record and in danger of not having the best odds possible for the No. 1 draft pick. The Nuggets should win this game by a lot, but Denver isn’t always focused on winning by margin. Instead, they use games like this to rest their best players to protect them from injury and keep them ready to play more important opponents. I can’t trust the Nuggets to win by 16-plus points, but I’m also not interested in betting on the Spurs getting less than 16 points. There are no good betting options in this matchup.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Utah Jazz +12.5, 217
The Jazz are without Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson and John Collins, which leaves little NBA talent on their roster. Utah is always a tough place to play with the high altitude and the Jazz’s fast style of play, but the Cavaliers should crush this team. Cleveland has all their key players healthy again, but they are still struggling to gel. It’s tough for players to adjust to different roles and constantly changing usage. The Cavaliers also may be distracted by their game Wednesday night against the Suns in Phoenix. Cleveland can win tonight without having to push their best players to avoid too much fatigue for tomorrow. I make the Cavaliers 10-point favorites and think they can win this game by even more points than that, but I’m worried about their recent play and the possibility they are looking ahead to the game against the Suns. I’m going to pass.
Los Angeles Clippers at Sacramento Kings +2.5, 222.5
Both of these teams are having a rough end to their seasons. The Clippers were the best team in the NBA for a month or two, but they are just 6-6 in their last 12 games and hold only a two-game lead for the 4 seed in the Western Conference. The Kings were close to getting up to the 6 seed in the Western Conference and avoiding the Play-In Tournament, but they lost to the Mavericks twice at home last week, propelling the Mavericks up to the 5 seed and dropping the Kings down to eighth. I make the Clippers favorites by two with a total of 224, which is close to the current odds and I don’t have a good feel for which team will play a good game. I don’t see any value in any of these prices.
