Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! It’s just a two-game slate on what is sadly, not a TNT Thursday, but just a regular Thursday of NBA action. As you may have already figured out, TNT would rather continue its coverage of this “March Madness” I’ve heard about so much.
I hope everyone’s sanity remains intact because March is almost over and there is plenty of NBA basketball left. Teams have about 10 more games in the season to lock up their postseason spot, earn a shot at the playoffs in the Play-In Tournament, or improve their chances for the best draft pick possible. There is still a lot to play for and each team’s motivation is more important than ever. Let’s look at each game on tonight’s slate, see what teams are playing for, and try to find some value in the betting markets.
NBA Best Bets for Thursday
Milwaukee Bucks at New Orleans Pelicans
Current Line – Bucks -1, 224.5
My Projection – Pelicans 112, Bucks 110
Key Injuries – Brandon Ingram and Jose Alvarado are out.
The Bucks are starting to find the form some expected of them before the seasons started. Acquiring Damian Lillard was likely to hurt the defense, which it has, but it would make the Bucks one of the best offenses in the league, which it has. For years, Milwaukee was one of the best defenses in the NBA. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez are two of the best rim protectors in the league and both can hold their ground on the perimeter. Knowing they had help behind them, guards could play aggressively away from the basket and the Bucks were one of the toughest teams to play. This season, they have been an average to below average defense and most frightening, a bad transition defense. Fast breaks give teams chances at easy points and limiting those opportunities is paramount to a team’s success. Their defense has been better and the offense remains potent, but their overall net rating has only improved 1.5 points and the Bucks are still outside of the top five teams in the league.
One of the members of that top five are the Pelicans. It may surprise you learn that the Pelicans have just two fewer wins than the Bucks because there has been little to no talk about New Orleans as a title contender while people continue to mention Milwaukee in the same breath true title contenders. Zion Williamson has dropped weight and is playing the best basketball of his career to date. New Orleans has one of the few true centers left in Jonas Valanciunas, a veteran lead point guard in CJ McCollum, and several wings who can defend at a high level and make threes at a high rate. If Zion can stay healthy and continue to dominate games, they finally have the star level player to match against other teams’ best players. The Pelicans can roll out big, physical lineups and small, fast lineups. They attack the rim relentlessly, but also have plenty of shooting to space the floor. It’s a very good team and if Brandon Ingram can return for the postseason, will be a dark horse candidate to make the Western Conference Finals. That’s the future.
As for the present, I love this matchup for New Orleans. The Bucks generally bully opponents with their size, but they won’t get away with that here. I have the Pelicans favored and like them to win this game, but the most value lies in a derivative market. New Orleans has been one of the best first-quarter and first-half teams in the NBA all season. They start games fast, build a lead, and then salt it away with a slower pace and strong focus on defense in the second half. That’s won them a lot of games, but lost a lot of spreads for their backets late in games. The Pelicans have still been profitable for bettors with a 39-31-2 record against the spread, but that’s much worse than their record of 44-26-2 against the spread in the first half. It pays better to bet the Pelicans early and that’s exactly what I’m going to do. Give me New Orleans on the moneyline in the first half. You can bet the spread at +0.5 which would be a winner if these teams tie in the first half, but the moneyline pushes in that case and I think there’s more value in selling that half a point.
Bet
New Orleans Pelicans 1H ML (-105, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks +16.5, 226.5
The Hawks played Wednesday night and might be without Dejounte Murray. Trae Young, Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu are already going to miss this game, which leaves Atlanta without much talent even if Murray can play. Without the team’s only NBA quality guard, the Hawks are going to be hard pressed to lose by less than 15 points let alone win. The not so bad news is that Atlanta has all but locked up the 10th seed in the Eastern Conference. They are 5.5 games ahead of the Brooklyn Nets with only 10 games to play. That means the Hawks are headed to Chicago to play the Bulls in the first round of the Play-In Tournament regardless of what happens Thursday.
The Celtics have clinched the top see in the East and are 6.5 games ahead of the Denver Nuggets for best record and homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs. Boston doesn’t have much to play for and can win this game without all of their best players, but it looks like they are planning on playing everyone anyway. Jrue Holiday and Al Horford are questionable, but that means Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and Kristaps Porzingis are expected to play. If that’s the case, I make Boston 18-point favorites if Murray doesn’t play and 14 favorites if he does play. Those numbers are pretty close to the current market odds and I’m worried about the motivation for both teams, so I’ll pass on this game.
