Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! You may be distracted by college basketball and something called “March Madness,” but the NBA has my full attention. This is a TNT Thursday, which means we have a few marquee matchups and a few other games of varying quality.
Injuries are a part of the long, 82-game season and can be especially scary this late. Wednesday night, Luka Doncic hurt his hamstring and Coby White injured his knee. Several of Thursday’s games feature star players who may not be able to play. Hopefully these are all short term problems and everyone will be healthy for the playoffs, but it makes things murky for now. So let’s keep that in mind as we parse through the six games on the schedule and try to find value in the betting markets.
NBA Best Bets for Thursday
Washington Wizards at Houston Rockets
Current Line – Rockets -8, 227.5
My Projection – Rockets 116, Wizards 112
Key Injuries – Alperen Sengun and Cam Whitmore are out.
The Rockets will be without the player who drives their entire offense and arguably their second-best scorer. Alperen Sengun was a top candidate for the Most Improved Player award for his work as a “Nikola Jokic-lite” for Houston. Sengun ran most of the offense from the top of the key or in the post where he could score himself or find teammates in good positions. Without him, there is a glaring lack of the ability to create offense from the rest of the roster. Cam Whitmore has also been a key to the team’s scoring as spark plug off the bench and as a one-on-one score late in games. Without these two players, there is a lot of burden on Jalen Green who has been playing better, but is not capable of running things. The Rockets are still a good defensive team, especially at home, but it’s hard to cover a spread this big without scoring a lot of points.
The Wizards have evolved into an interesting (albeit not talented) small-ball team. They traded Daniel Gafford and are without Marvin Bagley and Richaun Holmes, which means they don’t really have a healthy center on the team. Washington has been starting Corey Kispert, a great shooter, and relying on Kyle Kuzma and Deni Avdija to deal with the opponent’s big men. Here, their opponent doesn’t have a traditional big man to attack this small lineup. This frees things up for the Wizards who have shown they can keep games close and even win if they their opponent can’t beat them in the paint and on the offensive glass. I think the Rockets have the better team, but not by a wide margin and they are without any clear matchup advantages. I know it’s never fun to bet on a team that has won only 11 games, but that’s what I’m doing. Give me the Wizards +8 or better.
Bet
Washington Wizards +8 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Phoenix Suns at Boston Celtics -6, 225.5
Kristaps Porzingis is out and Jaylen Brown is questionable, but even without both, the Celtics are deserving favorites in this game. Boston still has Jayson Tatum, Derrick White and Jrue Holiday, who can each guard one of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. The Suns can be formidable when fully healthy, but this is the rare opponent with the defensive capability of slowing down their offense. If Brown can play, things are even tougher for the Suns who don’t have a player to matchup with him. Phoenix has a bit of a rest advantage having not played for two days. They do play in Charlotte Friday, but I don’t expect them to look ahead to that game. This should be a great matchup, but I don’t see any edges for us to play. With Brown out, I make the Celtics -4 and with Brown in, I make the Celtics -9. I expect the market to be close to those numbers once we know Brown’s final status. No bets for me here.
Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks -7.5, 220
Things are bleak in Philadelphia. As many of you know, I am a devout 76ers fan despite years of being spiritually “kicked in the testicles” over and over again. This season started with Joel Embiid reaching a truly absurd level of basketball only to watch his knees betray him. Tyrese Maxey was well on his way to winning the Most Improved Player award, but has struggled with injuries himself and doesn’t appear to be good enough to drag what’s left of this team Philadelphia roster. The Bucks started the season winning games, but struggling to do so. They’ve turned things around with some adjustments to their defense to keep opponents from getting easy points in transition and from offensive rebounds. It’s not the best spot for them as they return home after a week on the road. The Bucks should be able to win this game comfortably, but I don’t see any value in betting them. Milwaukee has been winning games more consistently, but not by margin as they’ve focused on slowing games down and not pushing to score points late. None of these lines look bettable to me.
Los Angeles Clippers at Chicago Bulls +6.5, 214
This is a tough spot for both teams. Kawhi Leonard is dealing with back spasms, and James Harden strained his shoulder. Both are listed as questionable and even if they do play, may get pulled from the game early if there’s a flair up of those injuries. That makes it tough to trust the Clippers to cover this spread on the first night of a road back-to-back set of games. The Bulls won Wednesday night, but in overtime. Chicago played all of its key players 40-plus minutes and lost Coby White due to injury late in the game. If both LA stars are out, the Bulls could win this game outright if they aren’t completely wiped out from last night’s tough game. If both LA stars are in, the Clippers could crush a tired Chicago team and cover this spread easily. There’s just too much unknown, so I can’t suggest we bet this game at this point.
New York Knicks at Portland Trail Blazers +10.5, 205
I’m not sure the Knicks should be double digit favorites on the road, but 10.5 isn’t enough points for me to back the Trail Blazers on the second night of back-to-back games. OG Anunoby is back, which is huge for the Knicks. He raises their overall level of talent, is immediately their best defender, and provides spacing with his shooting on offense. Earlier this season, the Knicks were crushing teams like Portland, but they haven’t been the same team the last month or so. Thursday could be a return to the norm, but I’m not betting on it. The Trail Blazers have won two of their last three games outright and are playing competitive basketball, but they are still a very bad team. Portland lacks enough shooting to create space on offense which makes things even more difficult for their young guards. Maybe the Knicks hold the Blazers to 90 points and win comfortably or maybe Portland continues to surprise and New York continues to not play great. I really don’t know and therefore will not be wagering on this game.
Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder -11, 234
Luka Doncic injured his hamstring Wednesday and will miss this game, which is why the spread is so high. The Mavericks have had success without Luka, but they need their star to reach their full potential. Dallas can run their offense through Kyrie Irving and Doncic’s replacement is a better defender so things balance out a bit, but they are still much worse than this Thunder team. Oklahoma City has Jalen Williams back and is totally healthy once again. The Thunder are one of the best teams against the spread at home with a 23-11 record so far this season. They matchup well with the Mavericks. OKC has defenders who can slow down Kyrie and cover up the shooters around him. Offensively, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should be able to score without much trouble and the Thunder’s shooters will have open shots. I make this game OKC -13 with a total of 235, which is close to what the books have hung for us. I’ll pass on this game.
