Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We have 12 games on the NHL slate for Thursday, so there’s plenty of action to be had on the ice. Below you’ll see a list of three of my favorite NHL props, with a couple of bonus NHL prop bets as well.
The odds change pretty quickly in the NHL, so take advantage of our Prop Shop for the best possible odds and check out our Pick Tracker for all of my picks.
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Be sure to check out Mean Streets for daily picks and Dangle Bet Celly for full NHL breakdowns each Tuesday and Thursday.
The Best NHL Props Bets
Michael Bunting Over 2.5 SOG
(-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Pittsburgh Penguins are riding a four-game losing streak, and they only have one win in their past eight games, but they are putting plenty of pucks on the net. They rank sixth in shots at 5v5 per six over the last six weeks, but they are dead last in shooting percentage.
Michael Bunting was immediately placed on Sidney Crosby’s line in the Jake Guentzel trade, and although he’s nowhere close to the same player as Guentzel, Bunting has impressed. In three games with the Pens, the winger has 17 shot attempts, 11 shots on goal and a goal. He’s averaging 19:00 minutes per game with Pittsburgh (2:16 on the PP), compared to 15:07 in 60 games with the Carolina Hurricanes.
As I mentioned in Tuesday’s article with Owen Tippett, the matchup against the San Jose Sharks is the best matchup a team can get. The Sharks have surrendered a league-high 70.51 shot attempts at 5v5/60 since Feb 1, according to Natural Stat Trick. Over that time span, they rank second in both shots and scoring chances allowed, and fourth in high danger chances. All of that has led to the second-highest GA/60 (3.52) and xGA/60 (3.1) at 5v5.
We broke out the ladder for Owen Tippett against San Jose, so consider Bryan Rust who has 18 shot attempts and 13 shots on goal in two games since returning to the lineup. In fact, Rust has at least six shots on goal in three straight games. The higher up the ladder you go, the smaller your wager.
Bonus
- Bryan Rust Point (-140, DraftKings)
- Bryan Rust 4+ SOG (+155, Bet365) 2 units
- Bryan Rust 5+ SOG (+340, Bet365) 1 unit
- Bryan Rust 6+ SOG (+700, Bet365) 0.75 units
- Bryan Rust 7+ SOG (+1000, Bet365) 0.50 units
- Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust, Michael Bunting Points SGP (+220, Bet365)
Kirill Kaprizov Over 1.5 Points
(+110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kaprizov has put his team on his back lately as the Wild push for a playoff spot. The winger has 14 goals and 28 points in his last 16 games. His goals rank second and his points rank third in the NHL since Feb. 1. He has six goals and 10 points over a current five-game winning streak. Kaprizov has picked up at least two points in three of those five games, and he has eight multi-point games in his last 16 matchups. Over the last six weeks at 5v5/60, the Ducks rank second in high danger chances allowed, and they rank in the top 10 in shot attempts, shots and scoring chances allowed. They also lead the NHL in penalties taken, so we could see a few power play opportunities for Kaprizov and company. The Wild are desperate for points, which we saw when they pulled their goalie in overtime last week. The aggressiveness has also resulted in more ice time for Kaprizov who is averaging 21:55 through six games in March, compared to 20 minutes per game over the previous four months.
Bonus
- Wild -1.5 (-110, Bet365)
- Ryan Hartman Point (-120, DraftKings)
Jonathan Marchessault Point
(-135, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Marchessault was just fine without Jack Eichel in the lineup, but he has taken his game to a new level since Eiche’s return. The winger has five goals and 13 shots on goal in his last two games. These two have had terrific chemistry since last season, which resulted in a Stanley Cup win for Vegas and the Conn Smythe Trophy for Marchessault. The Calgary Flames have coughed up 18 goals over a current three-game losing streak, and they remain without their star goaltender Jacob Markstrom. The same game parlay I have below has cashed in each of the last two games. I’m not saying it will tonight, but it’s something to monitor moving forward as the Golden Knights begin a stretch of must-win hockey in order to get into the playoffs to defend their title.
Bonus
- Jack Eichel Assist (-115, DraftKings)
- Jack Eichel 2 Points, 3 SOG & Jonathan Marchessault 2 Points, 3 SOG SGP (+1400, Bet365) 0.25 units
Alex Nylander Over 2.5 SOG
(+120, BetMGM)
Nylander was our long-shot NHL prop of the day Tuesday and it worked out. The process was right, and the price was very nice, so I think we should ride this thing out. Nylander picked up five shots on goal in his second consecutive game. It was the fifth time in his last eight games where he’s had at least four shots on goal. The winger has five goals and seven points in nine games with the Blue Jackets and he’s averaging 16:00 per game, compared to 13:52 with the Pens. He’s on the third line, but he took Jack Roslovic’s spot on the top power play when he was traded to New York last week. Nylander has been in the NHL since 2016-17, but his 14 games this season between the Blue Jackets and Penguins are the second most he’s ever played in a season. The former eighth overall pick from 2016 has never really gotten a shot, especially PP1 time. In his last eight games, Nylander has 44 shot attempts and a team-high 30 shots. Only Zach Werenski has more shot attempts (53) for the Blue Jackets over that time frame and he’s played 195 minutes compared to Nylander’s 132.
Bonus
- Tim Stutzle O 2.5 SOG (-145, DraftKings)
- Shane Pinto O 2.5 SOG (-145, DraftKings)
Goal Scorers
Kirill Kaprizov
David Pastrnak
Bryan Rust
Jonathan Marchessault
Auston Matthews
Alex Nylander
Tim Stutzle
Clayton Keller
Wyatt Johnston
PrizePicks
- Bryan Rust O 2.5 SOG
- Michael Bunting O 2.5 SOG
- David Pastrnak O 4.5 SOG
- Bryan Rust Point
- Kirill Kaprizov O 1.5 Points
- Jonathan Marchessault Point
- Jack Eichel Point
