Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed, and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
Using these projections to compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Nikola Jokic Over 9.5 Assists
(-135, DraftKings Sportsbook)
My model has Nikola Jokic for 11.6 assists, and this is a great spot for it as the Grizzlies rank 28th in assists allowed. Jokic has at least 10 assists in seven of his last 10, and is averaging 11.3 assists in that span.
Mitchell Robinson Over 8.5 Rebounds
(+105, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Mitchell Robinson made his return to the lineup Friday after about a month off with an injury, and he returned to instantly play 28 minutes, grabbing 12 rebounds in that span. My model projects Robinson for 10 rebounds Saturday.
Brandon Ingram Over 24.5 Points
(-128, Caesars)
I also like this line at 25.5 at -102 on FanDuel, as my model projects Brandon Ingram for over 29 points. Ingram has had a massive role in this offense since he returned to the lineup, as he has a 33% usage rate in that rime in large thanks to Zion Williamson being out with an injury. Ingram is averaging 30 PPG in his last 5, and has seven straight games with at least 25 points
