NBA Prop of the Day
Jake Silverman
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! The NBA continues its return Friday with another jam-packed slate of games. We had 12 Thursday night, and we have 10 Friday, which means 13 of the 20 teams playing Friday are on the second night of a back-to-back. The impact of that lack of rest is less than usual thanks to the recent, long All-Star break, but it’s not the same for every team.
Some of those teams are playing against opponents who haven’t played since the break. Will the rest advantage win them the day or will the rust of a week off being too much to overcome against a team that has already played. There’s a lot to unpack, so let’s go through each game to see how things might shake out and where there is value for us to bet.
Of course, since it’s Friday, you can watch a video version of Hoops with Noops on the FTN Network YouTube channel. Please watch and leave a comment below to let me know if you have any questions or suggestions. Now, onto the basketball.
NBA Best Bets for Friday
Toronto Raptors at Atlanta Hawks
Current Line – Hawks -7, 245.5
My Projection – Hawks 125, Raptors 122
Key Injuries – RJ Barrett is questionable. Onyeka Okongwu is out.
The worst bet you could have made in the NBA this season is to blindly bet on the Hawks in every one of their games. Atlanta is 17-37-1 against the spread, for a loss of 21.5 units if you risked 1 unit each time. They are the worst team against the spread at home, on the road and as the favorite, and second worst as the underdog. The Hawks have the 11th-best offensive rating, but the second-worst defensive rating in the league. Winning games and covering numbers is often about a team’s ability to defend well at the end of games and maintain control. Their offense is good, but not great and you need a great offense to be able to cover up for such a bad defense. Atlanta is 26-26-3 in the first half of games this season, but 24-31 in full games. Time and time again they collapse at the end of games and even if they win, rarely cover their spread.
The Raptors are playing their second game in two nights, which is generally a tough spot, but it’s not as difficult coming off a long break like the All-Star break. Toronto won by 28 points and kept all their key players’ minutes below their averages. Given all that, I think the market might be overestimating the impact of the back-to-back on the road spot for the Raptors. Toronto is one of the few teams that are not good enough to make the Play-In tournament and not bad enough to bottom out and chase the top draft pick. They have some nice young players who could use reps together to gel so they can learn whether these pieces fit together and whether or not they can be a winner next year. They have a talented starting five and a group that will be able to score and play close with the Hawks. Atlanta should be favored, but seven points is too many for them to lay. I make the spread three and will be betting the Raptors +7 points.
Bet
Toronto Raptors +7 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Phoenix Suns at Houston Rockets
Current Line – Suns -4, 233.5
My Projection – Suns 115, Rockets 115
Key Injuries – Bradley Beal and Jusuf Nurkic are doubtful.
The Suns are starting to come together but played Thursday in a tough game in Dallas against the Mavericks. Of course, they are coming off a long break, but Kevin Durant played 40 minutes, Devin Booker played 39, and Bradley Beal didn’t play at all. Beal is likely out again, and Jusuf Nurkic is unlikely to play. That shortens the bench for a veteran roster that played big minutes a day ago. This is a great spot to bet against Phoenix. The Suns have been getting form and playing good, winning basketball with Durant, Booker, and Beal together, but they have struggled all season when one of those three is missing or when playing a game in a bad rest spot. The Suns are the better team tonight, but they don’t have their full team and are likely still fatigued after last night even off the long break.
The Rockets also played on the road Thursday and also lost but didn’t push their players to be on the floor for too many minutes. In fact, not one single Rocket played more than 30 minutes. They should be fresher than their opponents and are in Houston where they’ve played their best basketball this season. The Rockets are 18-9-1 against the spread at home and 9-17-1 against the spread on the road which is one of the biggest differences in the NBA. Houston has been better able to control pace and play the kind of basketball they want to play and not their opponent’s style. Their defense is much better, and it leads to more wins. They are not as talented as Phoenix, but they are much deeper and at home, I think they can win this game outright let alone cover the four-point spread. I’m backing the Rockets +4 at home tonight.
Bet
Houston Rockets +4 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Philadelphia 76ers +4, 228
Both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back after bad losses Thursday. Without Donovan Mitchell, who is questionable, the Cavaliers lost to the Orlando Magic at home. Cleveland were favorites by 7-plus points in that game. The 76ers continue to play poorly without Joel Embiid. Of course, they were expected to be worse without their star player, but not nearly this bad. They lost to the Knicks by 14 but were down 25-plus points for most of the contest. Philadelphia is starting to get back key players like De’Anthony Melton, who is probably, and Nicolas Batum, who played Thursday but is questionable. That will help the 76ers eventually, but I can’t trust them even as underdogs at home. In fact, I like Cleveland if Mitchell can play, but I can’t bet that now. Make sure you’re in the Discord, because I’ll put any bets I make on the Cavaliers in there once Mitchell’s status is official.
Washington Wizards at Oklahoma City Thunder -16, 241
This is the second night of a back-to-back for both teams, but the Wizards are on the road again while the Thunder are at home again. OKC played one of their best games of the season in a 22-point win over the Los Angeles Clippers which puts them one game the No. 1 seed and 1.5 games over the 3 seed. The Wizards lost by 20 points against the Nuggets in Denver. I make this spread 14, which is a small edge on Washington, but the OKC has thrashed bad teams like this all season, even in bad schedule spots. The Wizards usually make up margin against team’s backup players and late in games when their opponents play with less urgency. The Thunder have a good second unit and are known for playing hard for all 48 minutes. They can cover this big number, but I don’t see any value in betting on that or anything in this game.
Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies +9, 222.5
Jaren Jackson and the G-Leaguers play their first game after the All-Star break against the Clippers, who got bullied by the Oklahoma City Thunder Thursday. The second night of a back-to-back can be tough for a veteran team like the Clippers, but they have great depth and didn’t play anyone too many minutes last night. The Grizzlies have been better than expected without all of their stars, but they’re outclassed in this game and should lose it comfortably. I make this Clippers -10.5, with a total of 224, which show some small edges, but nothing that is worth betting. Even with the bad schedule spot, the Clippers should win this game by double digits, but they also might rest a few players and overlook a tenacious Grizzlies team. I’ll pass on this game.
Miami Heat at New Orleans Pelicans -3.5, 220.5
I like the Pelicans in this game, but the injury report is too messy for me to back New Orleans right now. The Heat have their own issues with Terry Rozier out and Tyler Herro listed questionable. That leaves them possibly without any good guards. The Pelicans listed Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamsons as questionable. I think New Orleans can win and even cover this spread if one of those two can play and Herro can’t play. If both Ingram and Zion are out, then this game is pretty close whether Herro plays are not. There are too many moving pieces to make a wager now. Check the Discord closer to tip off to see if I do make any bets on this game once we know who is playing.
Milwaukee Bucks at Minnesota Timberwolves -4, 225
This should be a very interesting game. The Timberwolves are the 1 seed in the Western Conference and have 27 games left to defend their position. The Bucks were struggling to adapt to Doc Rivers, but the All-Star break gave them a week to get organized and work to implement new schemes. I make this game Minnesota -5 with a total of 224, which puts me right in line with the oddsmakers. I like the matchup for the Timberwolves. Their size and defense should do well here, but the Bucks beat them 129-105 just a few weeks ago. It should be a fun game to watch, but not a great game to bet. I don’t see any value at this point, so nothing for me here.
Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers +9.5, 218.5
This is Portland’s first game since the break, but the Nuggets played Thursday in Denver. The Nuggets play the Warriors in Golden State Sunday, which makes this a bad rest spot and a lookahead game for Denver, who can win this game (comfortably_ without their best effort. We don’t have an official injury report for the Nuggets yet, but I would be surprised if they rest some players or play them less than their normal minutes. The Trail Blazers have some talent and have no reason to tank. They are too far ahead of the league’s worst teams to get down below them and they are five games behind the team ahead of them. Maybe a young Portland team can surprise a Denver team giving less than its best, but I’m not sure. This game is a mess, so I’m not betting it.
Charlotte Hornets at Golden State Warriors -13, 229
You can basically take the last paragraph and replace the Nuggets with the Warriors and the Trail Blazers with the Hornets. The Warriors won comfortably at home Thursday and can beat the Hornets while resting their stars. The Hornets are bad, but not bad enough to get themselves better draft lottery odds while also not being in danger of getting worse odds. It’s hard to know the motivation of both teams. As I said earlier, this game is a mess, so I’m not betting it.
San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers -10, 239.5
This should be a perfect bounceback spot for the Lakers, but I can’t trust them enough to lay this many points. Los Angeles lost in Golden State Thursday, but without LeBron James, who is expected to play here. The Spurs also played Thursday in Sacramento and played their starters 30-plus minutes in a tight contest. I think there’s a chance Victor Wembanyama or other Spurs miss this game, and the Lakers are the much better team. However, I make this Los Angeles -9 and am not willing to lay the 10-point spread. I lean to the under, but the Lakers offense was improving going into the break and this game looks like a blowout, which generally means over will be the winning bet on the total. I’ll pass.