NBA Best Bets of the Day (12/27)

Welcome to Hoops with Noops, and happy Friday. I realize that during the holiday season that Fridays don’t carry the same weight as they do normally, but it’s still the end of the week, which is a good enough reason to celebrate with eight games of NBA action.

Unfortunately, there are several teams playing their second game in two nights, but there are also some great matchups and chances for us to find value in the betting markets. Games between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Denver Nuggets as well as the Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns off us a chance to watch basketball played at a high level.

That’s great, but even better is winning some money and there’s a good chance for us to do that in another game that offers us a potential playoff preview. Here’s my best bet of the night.

NBA Best Bets for Friday

Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets

Current Line – Rockets -1, 212.5
My Projection – Rockets 108, Timberwolves 103
Key Injuries – Dillon Brooks and Tari Eason are questionable.

Despite ending their losing streak with a win on Christmas, the Timberwolves are a mess. After a big offseason trade, they were expected to look different and possibly take a small step backward, but it has been a big change and one for the worse. They are just 15-14, which is well below what was expected of them. Looking deeper at the team’s performance, only Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle have been a net positive for the team. Rudy Gobert has been neutral for the most part, and the rest of the team have been negatives. More specifically, Jaden McDaniels and Donte DiVincenzo are playing some of the worst basketball of their careers. The underlying metrics of this team show an average squad, not the potential Western Conference contender we all expected. Perhaps the win on Christmas will be the launching off point for a long win streak, but I think they will continue to struggle.

The Rockets did play Thursday night, but it was a comfortable win. and all their key players played less than their average amount of minutes. They are 21-9, which makes them second best in the West, and the Rockets have been especially good on their home court. Houston has a net rating of +10.8 points per 100 possessions at home, fifth best in the NBA. Ime Udoka seems to be able to get his team locked in defensively and the Rockets use that to control the pace of the game. They are 11-3 straight up and 10-10-4 against the spread when playing Houston. I love the matchup for them outside of Edwards, who should be the best player on the floor tonight, but the Rockets have the advantage at almost every other position. I make Houston favorites by five points and the market, possible overrating the impact of the back to back, makes them just one point favorites. I’ll lay the point at -115 or better. If you have a line of -1.5, then play the moneyline at -125 or better.

Bet

Houston Rockets -1 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook/BetRivers)

If you have any questions about other games, drop them in the #nba-betting channel of the FTN Discord and tag me @noopschristenson. I’ll be sure to get back to you ASAP.