Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! Regular season NBA basketball in December is back! To be clear, that is not a good thing. The NBA In-Season Tournament gave us competitive games, teams without scheduling concerns and star players not resting. Tuesday, things will be much different, with five games, all involving at least one team playing on the second night of a back-to-back. There are also several star players listed as questionable with no strong indication of whether they will play.
I realize this isn’t the positivity you’ve become used to in this space, but it bears mentioning and will impact how we handicap NBA games going forward. Let’s dive into each game, see what we can expect, and find some value to bet.
NBA Best Bets for Tuesday
Denver Nuggets at Chicago Bulls
Current Line – Nuggets -7, 220
My Projection – Nuggets 113, Bulls 105
Key Injuries – Zach LaVine is out. Alex Caruso and Jamaal Murray are questionable.
Both teams are playing their second game in two nights. The Bulls lost in overtime in Milwaukee Monday, and the Nuggets won in Atlanta. Back-to-backs are always bad spots, but some teams handle them differently. The Nuggets have generally focused on the second night of a B2B by resting their players on the first night. Monday was a bit of an exception with Jamal Murray playing in Atlanta. I don’t expect the Denver guard to play here, but the Nuggets are still deserving to be big favorites. Chicago has been playing better basketball the last few weeks, but they are not good enough to beat Denver with Jokic on the floor. Although no team has a great solution to the problems presented by the reigning MVP, but the Bulls are particularly ill-equipped. Nikola Vucevic has never been a good defender and Andre Drummond is well past his years of being a good defensive center. Even though Murray may not play, Denver is at worst equal to Chicago in the backcourt. My projections for the full game are close to the market, but there is an angle I like in the first quarter. Nikola Jokic plays all 12 of the opening minutes of every game. I’m not sure another player in the NBA does that and I know another start player doesn’t. It gives Denver a big edge to start games because Jokic gets 3-5 minutes against his opponent’s backups. So, tonight Jokic will play the entire 1st quarter against a team that can’t defend him and is among the worst first-quarter teams in the league. I make that spread 3.5, almost 4 points, so I’ll happily be Denver in the first quarter -2.
Bet
Denver Nuggets 1Q -2 (-112, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns
Current Line – Suns -1, 231
My Projection – Warriors 118, Suns 117
Key Injuries – Kevin Durant is out.
Well, we almost finally got to see Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal together in Phoenix, but Durant was scratched early Tuesday afternoon. Beal is set to play for the first time in a month, and I’m excited to see how he and Booker break up the point guard duties. Either way, it’s exciting to get to see two guards so offensively talented together. Both shoot well and pass well, which makes the other even scarier when they are paired. The Warriors have everyone they need and look like they’re starting to find their good form. They’ve lost to the Suns twice already, but both games were close and the Warriors are playing better. I have Golden State as a small favorite, but it’s only a two-point advantage over the current spread. The look I do love is the over. These are two teams that are happy to play fast, have tons of shooting, and not many, if any, defenders that can slow down their opponents. Stephen Curry is fantastic always, but he’s at his best when he is able to play off the ball, endlessly cutting and hunting for space to shoot 3-pointers. Draymond Green and he have incredible chemistry because Draymond knows how to screen for Curry and how to pass him the ball. Booker is a good defender, but he, like most mortals, has struggled against Curry. At the same time, the Warriors don’t have a defender that can slow down Booker or Beal. I expect to see a lot of movement and a lot of 3-point shots tonight which means lots of points. I’m going to wager on over 231 and would play over anything 232 or lower.
Bet
Warriors/Suns Over 231 (-108, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Clippers
Current Line – Clippers -3, 235.5
My Projection – Clippers 120, Kings 119
Key Injuries – None.
This is another matchup between two teams that played just a day ago. The Clippers played at home as was Sacramento and both teams won, although the Clippers had a tougher game. This should be a really fun game and the rare late West coast tipoff that I, based in Philadelphia and too old to be up till 1 a.m., may actually stay up to watch. Los Angeles is starting to gel and be comfortable playing with James Harden. He and Kawhi Leonard have split the ball-handling duties, and Paul George is starting to thrive off the ball. The Sacramento Kings are back to being the team we saw last year, a fast, efficient offense that can score a lot of points against any opponent on any night. My projections like Sacramento a little better than the market, but they like the over even more. I’m expecting a fast-paced game with little defense in the way to stop the scoring. The Clippers have good defensive pieces and they’ve had success against Sabonis, but De’Aaron Fox and the Sacramento guards should have their way all night long. Conversely, the Kings don’t have the wing defenders to matchup against Kawhi and PG13. I wasn’t surprised to see them combine for 248 points when they first played, and I won’t be surprised if they get over 240. I like the over here quite a bit and will bet on it at 236 or lower.
Bet
Kings/Clippers over 235.5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook or BetMGM)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics -11.5, 224.5
Evan Mobley is out, and there is a big difference in how good the Cavaliers are when they are missing one of their top four players. My projections still show a little value on Cleveland, I have it at 9.5, but there’s not a big enough edge especially considering the matchup. Boston has Derrick White and Jrue Holiday are two of the best defensive guards in the league and can keep Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland from scoring. Jarrett Allen is a great defender, but he’s almost half a foot shorter than Kristaps Porzingis which means KP can just shoot over him. I’m going to pass on this game. I don’t hate a Celtics team total over or alternate spread if you’re looking for some action, but there’s nothing I’m betting here.
Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks +4.5, 231
Initially I was all set to back the Mavericks as underdogs at home, but this a brutal spot for them. Dallas played Monday and Luka Doncic was on the floor for 44 minutes. Kyrie Irving, Josh Green and Maxi Kleber are out, and Doncic himself is questionable. Things look better for the Lakers, but not by much. LeBron is questionable, but he is every night and plays anyway. I am concerned Anthony Davis, who is listed as questionable, will miss this game after hurt his hip/groin in the In-Season Tournament Final. If LeBron plays, I like the Lakers even if Doncic is in, but there’s nothing we can do at this time. I’ll add any bets for this game in the FTNBets Discord.
