Week 3 NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets | NFL Picks Against the Spread | NFL Props | Survivor
Chris Meaney
Welcome to “5 Stats to Know.” This NBA DFS article will come every day, Monday through Friday, provided by yours truly, to help you gain a quantitative edge on the rest of the field when identifying core plays.
The format of this article is simple. I will provide five stats that stuck out to me when diving into the day’s NBA slate. These could be derived from FTN’s suite of tools (Advanced DvP, NBA On/Off Splits) or from the NBA’s extensive library of statistics.
Make sure to check out all of the great FTN NBA offerings and fantastic NBA Tools, including our FTN NBA Odds Tracker and daily FTN NBA DFS cheat sheets!
Now, onto the noteworthy numbers for the slate at hand.
Evan Mobley, PF/C, Cleveland Cavaliers (@ IND)
Evan Mobley has seen a 2.3% bump in usage and averages 0.10 more DraftKings points per minute
While these appear to be incremental bumps at best, the amount of minutes Mobley projects to play (35-plus) makes them far more impactful than they may appear. With Allen out for the foreseeable future, we should see Mobley shift to the starting center position, upping his potential for rebounds and easy buckets around the rim. He’s averaged 17.2 points and 9.17 rebounds per-36-minutes with Allen off the floor and against an Indiana defense that has been one of the worst collective units in the league this season, a $7,000 price tag feels very reasonable.
Cameron Payne, PG, Phoenix Suns (@ ORL)
No player on the Suns sees a higher usage rate with Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Cameron Johnson off of the floor than Cameron Payne (26.6%)
Payne is only a trio of games removed from a lengthy absence, but he’s immediately been thrust into the fire with the pertinent pieces of the starting lineup sidelined. Payne has a lengthy track record of performing with these players out, averaging 15 points and 10.67 assists per game with Chris Paul out this season. He was just as productive in three games without Paul last season (regular season), averaging 19.67 points and 8.0 assists per game. He’s averaged over 35 fantasy points across his last six games without Paul, let alone without Devin Booker and Cameron Johnson. His $5,300 price tag is simply too cheap against such a weak opponent that’s been running at a blistering pace since the All-Star break (fifth in the NBA).
Kevin Durant, SF/PF, Brooklyn Nets (@ CHA)
Kevin Durant has posted a 36.7% usage rate in his two games since returning from injury
This is 8.2% higher than the next-closest player on the Nets (Kyrie Irving), and the elite usage rate has translated directly into elite fantasy production (1.45 DraftKings points per minute). He’s not only led the team in usage rate, but he’s also led the team in assist rate (25.5%). He’s coming in at a projected 19.95% rostership on DraftKings (at the time of writing). This is more than 10% lower than Giannis Antetokounmpo, and that feels like a mistake. Durant takes on a Hornets team that ranks 23rd or worse against all but one of his player traits (illustrated above) while running at the third-fastest pace in the NBA this season. For the $1,000-plus discount, give me Durant as my spend-up of choice in a game projected to stay within two possessions.
Cole Anthony, PG, Orlando Magic (vs. PHX)
In 14 games without Jalen Suggs this season, Cole Anthony has posted a 27.98% usage rate and 37.98 DraftKings points per game
He’s averaged nearly 10% more DraftKings points per game (+2.87) with Suggs inactive compared to games where he’s been active and the production stems from the clear uptick in volume. Over these 14 games, Anthony has averaged nearly 18 shot attempts per game for 20.64 points while also seeing 7.57 attempts from three per game. This Phoenix defense is a shell of itself without both Chris Paul and Devin Booker, which could open up more room for Anthony to operate. With Suggs missing morning shootaround, there’s a high likelihood that we get Anthony at $6,800 as a screaming mid-tier value.
Kevin Love, PF/C, Cleveland Cavaliers (@ IND)
Kevin Love’s DraftKings points-per-minute (1.25) mark is a top-12 mark in the NBA this season
Love has been a per-minute monster off of the bench for Cleveland this season. Extrapolating his numbers across a per-36-minute basis illustrates it well. Per 36 minutes this season, Love has averaged 22.42 points, 11.56 rebounds and 3.52 assists with a 25.5% usage rate, the second-highest mark among active Cavs (eliminating Collin Sexton). He’s averaged over 36 DraftKings points per game across seven games without Jarrett Allen this season, making him a phenomenal piece at under $6,000 (though he will be incredibly popular).
