Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Friday’s NBA DFS slate is going to be an interesting one, because we have 13 games, and we likely need to tread carefully with some of the late-night hammers. Of the three late games Friday, two have spreads of over 14 points. Since we have a lot to sift through, let’s get right to the five players we’re targeting to help us Friday.
1. The Pacers are 26th in defensive rating
I was listening to the FTN NBA podcast with Zac and Adam, and they pointed out that if you just went from the start of this calendar year, the Rookie of the Year award would be much more fascinating. Paolo Banchero of the Magic is the clear winner since it’s a sixth-month award, but Jalen Williams of the Thunder has turned it on. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was listed out for the Thunder but is now questionable, so that is something to monitor. If he does remain out, Williams is a primary target for me — since Jan. 1, he has scored 1.24 points per minute and a 23.4% usage rate. He’s been flashing a huge ceiling lately and with the Thunder ranking second in pace, I very much want an Oklahoma City player and Williams fits that bill.
2. The Atlanta Hawks are 24th against crafty finishers
While I’m perfectly fine with playing Mikal Bridges on FanDuel, it seems crazy that DraftKings continues to feed us him under $8,000. Bridges has scored 1.15 points per minute so far in Brooklyn and he’s been simply fantastic. He does a little of everything considering the last game saw him rack up six rebounds and six assists, not to mention he poured in 27 real points. This game has the second-highest total of the night and I want a piece of it since these teams are three games apart in the standings.
3. Tari Eason scores 1.10 points per minute without Kenyon Martin
Martin is listed as questionable for the Rockets as they host the Detroit Pistons Friday. I always tend to lean toward a questionable player sitting out at this juncture of the season when a team has nothing to play for, so we could see Eason start if Martin is indeed out. The usage rate is only 19.8% but it’s working for fantasy. It also helps him that the Pistons are 28th against rebounders and in the bottom five in defensive rating.
4. The Celtics appear to be in a mass rest spot against the Jazz
It’s not the most surprising outcome since Boston walloped the Bucks in Milwaukee about 24 hours ago, but they have listed Jayson Tatum, Al Horford, Jaylen Brown and Robert Williams as questionable or doubtful. Assuming they all sit out, Derrick White is likely about to be the chalk on a 13-game slate because he’s scored 1.27 points per minute in this scenario and Utah has struggled with guards all year. They are just 25th against primary ball handlers and White has a salary that reflects a healthy Boston squad.
5. Kevin Durant played 29 minutes Wednesday night
Durant has dealt with more than his share of injuries in the past couple of seasons, but one thing he does well is return without missing a beat. Even though the Nuggets are 10-point underdogs to the Suns, Phoenix has to get their ducks in a row with an offense that includes Durant, Devin Booker and Chris Paul as the main three. I expect the Suns to play Durant for 30-32 minutes in this game to continue to build his conditioning to play 40 minutes in the playoffs and Durant took 18 shots in just 29 minutes. In the sample with Phoenix, Durant has scored 1.33 points per minute and the $9,000 is incredibly appealing.
