Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Wednesday’s 10-game NBA DFS slate is loaded. Four of those games have spreads of over 10 points, which could make things a bit tricky. Predicting blowouts can be difficult, as evidenced by the Boston Celtics losing to the Washington Wizards Tuesday night. We’re going to have to keep these spreads in mind when picking our targets on this slate.
1. Jrue Holiday scores 7.2 points per game as the ball handler in the pick-and-roll
The first game we’re talking about has a large spread, but the Milwaukee Bucks are going to be missing Khris Middleton, so that’s going to help Holiday’s ceiling outcome in this spot. Both teams are in the top 10 in pace and when Middleton is off the floor, Holiday is scoring 1.21 points per minute and has a 25.4% usage rate. The Pacers are also allowing the fourth-highest field goal rate from a 3-point distance while Holiday is shooting 37.8% from beyond the arc. The salary on both sites is simply too low for the situation, and Holiday is among my favorite point guards on the slate.
2. Mikal Bridges has scored 26.8 points per game as a Net
The salary is wildly appealing since Bridges is playing an average of 34.7 minutes per game since he’s come to Brooklyn and the Nets need to keep winning to stay out of the play-in. Bridges is also averaging 28.8 real points across the last five games even though his 3-point shot hasn’t been falling at the same clip at just 34.1%. The FTN Advanced DvP Tool shows us that the Rockets are a strong matchup for his player type as well –
I believe Bridges is going to threaten 35 real points in this game and Brooklyn will likely play him enough minutes even in a blowout to get on top of this salary. He’s handled a 29.1% usage rate and scored 1.13 points per minute while scoring 6.3 points per game as a spot-up shooter. Since Houston is 29th in defensive rating, this is a perfect spot to get a ceiling game from Bridges.
3. San Antonio is dead last in points per game allowed in the paint
That’s one of the primary reasons that I love Walker Kessler of the Utah Jazz Wednesday as this spot can’t be much better of a matchup –
Kessler has produced 1.33 points per minute on the year in the situation the Jazz are in for this game and San Antonio is also dead last in defensive rating. Part of the reason that Kessler had a monster game the last time out was he recorded seven blocks but in the game ahead of that, Kessler recorded over 52.0 DK points with just one block. He should fall backward into a double-double in this spot and he fits in a build of a lot of mid-range players that looks appealing Wednesday.
4. In the past 15 games, the Clippers are dead last against primary ball handlers
Ja Morant sat out Tuesday night for the Grizzlies, but in the game before that, he played just under 30 minutes so playing 32 should be within reach on Wednesday. While the salary is reasonable on FD, it’s too low on DK and I plan to take advantage of that. Morant is up to a 35.0% usage rate on the year and he’s scoring 1.55 points per minute, not to mention he could see some of Russell Westbrook’s defense in this matchup. I’ll be happy to target that and the Clippers are 18th in points per game allowed in the paint. Morant should be able to drive as much as he wants here (he’s second at 20.6 drives per game) and the salary is just too low for an important game in the West for playoff seeding.
5. The Trail Blazers are down to nine healthy players
Of those nine players, two of them are Matisse Thybulle and John Butler (that’s a direct quote from Zac in the FTN Discord). The player that I have my eyes on that a lot of the field does as well is Kevin Knox, who should be in line for 26-32 minutes in this game, if not more. We have a very limited sample size with the Blazers with so few players available but Knox has scored 0.99 points per minute in 54 minutes. The Portland side is taking on the Kings, who play at a top-10 pace and are in the bottom six in defensive rating, so we want at least 1-2 Blazers is just about all of our lineups for Wednesday.
