(Check out FTN’s full NBA playoff preview!)

The Boston Celtics and Orlando Magic will face off in one of the more cut-and-dry first-round matchups of the 2025 NBA Playoffs. 

Entering the year as the defending NBA Champions, the Celtics coasted to another 60-win season. They did so while missing Kristaps Porziņģis for 40 games, Jrue Holiday for 20 games, NBA Finals MVP Jaylen Brown for 19 games and Jayson Tatum for 10 games. Boston set records with their three-point shooting volume this season, attempting 48.2 per game. They went 22-5 after the All-Star break, trailing only the Oklahoma City Thunder league-wide during that span.

The Magic had a roller coaster of a regular season, culminating in a dominant home win over Atlanta in the play-in game Tuesday, clinching the 7 seed in the Eastern Conference. Lengthy injuries to Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs kept Orlando from realizing their ceiling this year, but the team has looked strong in the final weeks of the regular season. After dropping to 32-38 March 19, the Magic finished 9-3 over their last 12 games before the play-in victory, the second-best record in the league over that span.

In this series preview, we’ll break down each team’s strengths and weaknesses, analyze how they match up, and use FTN’s model, which simulates every series 10,000 times, to project the most likely outcomes and best bets.

Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic Series Odds

Before we dive into the matchup breakdown, here’s a look at the current series odds for Celtics vs. Hawks/Magic at DraftKings Sportsbook:

The second-seeded Celtics are the current betting favorites at -6000 at DraftKings. 

After simulating the series 10,000 times, FTN’s model gives the Celtics a 94.0% chance to win, compared to 6.0% for the Magic. The Celtics are massive favorites and for good reason, but we don’t have much value at these prices.

Celtics vs. Magic: Regular Season Matchup Results

The Celtics faced the Magic three times this season, with the Magic winning the season series 2-1. 

Key Trends from the Season Series:

• Unfortunately, we can’t take much of anything away from the season series and apply it to what we’ll see starting this weekend. In the December meeting, Banchero and Wagner didn’t play. In the January game, Wagner didn’t play and Trevelin Queen was playing the minutes now assigned to Cory Joseph in relief of Jalen Suggs. Then in the matchup last week, the Celtics rested all of their starters and Al Horford.

Major Takeaways:

• The Celtics were the best home team in the league when they won the title last year. This season they were just 28-13 in their home gym but came in with the league’s best road record at 33-8. That’s bad news for the Magic trying to pull off the upset in a best-of-seven series.

Celtics vs. Magic: Matchup Breakdown & Statistical Comparison

Pace & Play Style

The two slowest teams in the NBA, this series is going to move at a snail’s pace. Game 1 currently has a 207.5 total on DraftKings.

Offensive & Defensive Ratings

Edge: Boston. Both teams are elite defensive units. But Boston is on another level on the offensive end of the floor and a tier above Orlando overall on paper.

Shooting & Efficiency

Edge: Boston. One interesting side effect of Boston shooting so many threes is the lack of trips to the free throw line. They may go cold for stretches during this series, but barring injury to some key Celtics this series, it shouldn’t be close.

Rebounding, Turnovers & Possession Metrics

Edge: Boston. The Celtics take care of the ball better than almost every other team, something that’s improved greatly since their NBA Finals run under Ime Udoka in 2022. 

Celtics vs. Magic: Key Player Matchups

Basketball is a team sport, but these individual player matchups could decide who moves forward in this matchup. 

Jayson Tatum vs Paolo Banchero

It can be tough to determine how we’re going to see these teams matchup considering that we don’t have a ton of full-strength minutes for both teams to reference from the regular season series. But going back to the start of the 2023-24 season, Banchero has had the Tatum assignment when they both suit up against each other. The Magic forward will also spend a good amount of time on Al Horford when he’s on the court, but with each team’s starters on the court, Tatum is the expected matchup. 

Jayson Tatum – Boston Celtics

• Games Played: 72
• Stats: 26.8 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 6.0 APG
• Shooting Splits: 45.2% FG, 34.3% 3PT, 81.4% FT
• Advanced: 53.7% eFG, 21.7 PER, 9.5 Win Shares

Tatum is one of the most underrated superstars in the NBA. He’s unlikely, in my mind, to ever win a league MVP trophy and will never be seriously considered in conversations about the greatest players of all time. But his track record over the first eight seasons is that of an all-time type of player, making four All-NBA first teams, being named to six All-Star games, making the Eastern Conference Finals five times and the NBA Finals twice, winning the 2023-24 championship.

The key for Tatum: Don’t play with your food. The Celtics are one of the deepest rosters in the league and can get big games out of any one of their starting group, along with Payton Pritchard off the bench. But at some point against Orlando, the Magic will make a push and Tatum will have to be the one to answer the bell. Meeting expectations by disposing of the Magic quickly and taking advantage of the additional rest between rounds would be an early boost in Boston’s quest to repeat. 

Paolo Banchero – Orlando Magic

• Games Played: 46
• Stats: 25.9 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 4.8 APG
• Shooting Splits: 45.2% FG, 32.0% 3PT, 72.7% FT
• Advanced: 50.0% eFG, 20.0 PER, 3.5 Win Shares

An oblique injury took nearly half of Banchero’s regular season from him, but he’s been finding his form again down the stretch run of the regular season. While you should expect his primary defensive matchups to mostly be against Tatum and Horford, the Celtics are likely to throw multiple different looks at the former first overall pick. That includes Jrue Holiday, who spent the most time guarding Banchero last season when we had a better sample size to pull from. Statistically, Holiday did well with the assignment where he’s ceding six inches and 45 pounds, holding Banchero to just 4-of-14 from the floor when being guarded by the two-time NBA champion. 

The key for Banchero: Continue to get to the free throw line at an elite rate. This series is going to be a slugfest from a pace perspective. Punishing the Celtics with his physicality, scoring while the clock is stopped and potentially getting the Boston frontcourt into some foul trouble could be the recipe required to steal a game or two off of the defending champions. Banchero didn’t play enough games to qualify for this leaderboard, but only two players got to the line more than him per 100 possessions this season, Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo and Oklahoma City’s presumptive league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Franz Wagner vs Jaylen Brown

Similar to the matchup we just discussed, we’ll see this pair more on one end of the floor than the other. Wagner will be the primary defensive assignment on Brown, while he’ll likely spend the majority of his time being guarded by Tatum on the other end. 

Franz Wagner – Orlando Magic

• Games Played: 60
• Stats: 24.2 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 4.7 APG
• Shooting Splits: 46.3% FG, 29.5% 3PT, 87.1% FT
• Advanced: 50.7% eFG, 20. PER, 3.1 Win Shares

Wagner has had an odd statistical arc through his first four seasons, specifically with his shooting ability. After being bang average from three (35.8%) over his first two years in the NBA, he’s been a terrible shooter over the most recent two to the tune of 28.9%. The Magic are a bad team on the offensive end, thanks in part to Wagner’s regression and inability to reliably space the floor. 

The key for Wagner: Can he get hot from deep? That’s just about the only way the Magic can win the math problem Boston presents. 

Jaylen Brown – Boston Celtics

• Games Played: 63
• Stats: 22.2 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 4.5 APG
• Shooting Splits: 46.3% FG, 32.4% 3PT, 76.4% FT
• Advanced: 51.5% eFG, 17.8 PER, 5.2 Win Shares

Brown, the reigning NBA Finals MVP, has been nursing a sore knee for the final couple weeks of the regular season. He’s been much less efficient with his shooting splits this season, shooting a career worst 32.4% from three and posting his lowest field goal percentage since his rookie year.

As mentioned, Wagner hasn’t had notable success against Brown on the defensive end over the last two seasons, but he’s certainly the healthier of the two coming into this series.

The key for Brown: Stay healthy. Boston has enough firepower on both ends of the floor to dispense of Orlando without Brown playing a massive role. He’ll likely be managing knee pain throughout this playoff run and in turn, we shouldn’t be surprised to see head coach Joe Mazzulla limit the miles put on Brown in this first round series. 

Series Prediction: Celtics vs. Magic

The sportsbooks and the FTN model are in alignment for this first-round series, with the Celtics as clear favorites.

FTN Model Prediction: Celtics

According to FTN’s model, this series projects as a snoozer — giving the Magic just a 6% chance at advancing.

Zac’s Pick: Celtics in 4

I’m siding with the model in this series and predicting a Boston sweep. It would take multiple injuries to Celtics starters for me to even begin to consider the possibility Orlando could pull off the upset and beat the defending champions four times in seven tries. 

Best Bets for Celtics vs. Magic

With FTN’s model projecting this series basically as one-sided as it gets, there aren’t any bets that stand out to me from a full-series perspective. But I think we can attack Game 1.

Best Bet 1: Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics Game 1 Under 207.5 

(-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)

With the two slowest-paced teams in the league squaring off in this series, I want to attack the total I brought up earlier in the article. Of course, you’ll want to check in on the FTN Fantasy model to see what the numbers say once they’re run and up on the site, I’ll be doing the same to make sure I’m not wildly off base with this pick. But I expect this number to fall as the game approaches on Sunday afternoon, so I’d recommend going there sooner rather than later if you’re intending to follow me on the under train. 

Final Thoughts on Celtics vs. Magic

This is expected to be one of the most boring first round series from a competitive standpoint. I’d expect to see the midweek games in this series relegated to NBA TV. Still, the Magic represent a potential long-time challenger in the Eastern Conference to the Celtics’ recent dominance. If they can put up a fight in this first-round matchup, they’ll be primed to be a sexy sleeper pick coming into next season with a healthy Jalen Suggs and an offseason of roster tinkering. To get us all to really pay close attention to this series, Orlando will have to steal one of the first two games in Boston.