Firekeepers Casino 400 DFS breakdown

Welcome to the FireKeepers Casino 400. We have a 200-lap race on a large, oval track, which is very similar to the Kansas track we had this year.  We will be using oval track data from previous years here, race track data for this year, and oval track experience and speed.  I also use the data from previous years to go through my core DFS plays.

We have a 2:41 p.m. ET start time for the thirteenth NASCAR Cup Series race of the 2021 season and a 38-car field.

The edge and key to this race is to focus on the higher-upside guys, who will get a ton of points via place differential — extra scoring for improving upon your starting position. I will run about 50-100 lineups in the big GPP with 5-10 main handbuilt lineups.  

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My research is focusing on a few key factors here.

• Place differential upside
• Dominator points – Fastest Laps/Laps Led (I want a minimum of 2 and max of 3)
• 2021 oval track data 
• Equipment
• Starting position.

I’ll be doing this article differently and focus on my mid-highest exposures.  If they are NOT listed below, this means I will have below 10% exposure on them. I’m limiting my player pool and sticking to this!

I will be overweight on all these drivers. I listed them in order of most favorite to least favorite. 

One-to-Two of These Four Dominators

• William Byron – Place differential upside plus fastest lap upside. He’s one of my favorite plays given the speed this season.
• Kyle Larson – Always in play, especially in an oval track. Love Larson if you can afford him on both sites.
• Chase Elliott or Kyle Busch – If Larson doesn’t dominate this race,  Kyle or Chase can dominate this race. I wouldn’t play both guys, but I’d go one or the other with Byron. Do NOT play with Larson.

Overweight on These Remaining Drivers

• Christopher Bell  – One of the best place differential plays today. Will be chalky and he’s burned us a lot in the past, but the upside is there, especially on an oval track.
• Austin Dillon -Another place differential play. His speed lately is intriguing so it’s tough not to play him. In cash, Dillon and Bell are staples. In GPPs, try to play one or the other. 
• Ryan Preece – Cheap and has top 20 upside on this track. Can pivot to Anthony Alfredo for a lot less, but his upside isn’t near what Preece upside is at. I’m okay with either two of these guys.
• Cole Custer – I feel like a broken record. He’s got the place differential plus top 15 upside. The speed hasn’t been there all season, but top 15 or top 20 is very doable.
• Ross Chastain – He’s been one of my favorite racers all season and he’s in a tough spot here, but his past experience on oval tracks makes him intriguing today.