UFC 297 MMA Betting Odds (1/20)

Sean Strickland and Dricus Du Plessis headline the first PPV for the UFC in 2024 Saturday. If you had told me that, at the beginning of this year, Strickland would be defending his belt against anyone, let alone Du Plessis, I would’ve called you a liar and thought you were crazy. Well, UFC 297 is here, and the stage is set for Du Plessis to try and become South Africa’s first UFC champion.

The co-main event features a vacant title as former champ Raquel Pennington looks to retain a title she held long ago. Looking to rain on her parade is the more recent former champ, Mayra Bueno Silva. Silva beat Holly Holm last year to win the belt, but a tainted supplement caused a lousy drug test and made Bueno Silva give up the belt, setting us up for a great co-main. Also on the main card is the return of the gatekeeper, Neil Magny, as he once again serves as a litmus test for an up-and-coming athlete. This time, Canada’s own Mike Mallott will look to keep his 100% finish rate intact. Chris Curtis, aka the Action Man, is also on the main card to take on another Canadian, Marc Andre Barriault, in what should be an exciting clash of styles. Kicking off the main card is an intriguing matchup that could be a main event anywhere when Arnold Allen looks to hand Movsar Evloev his first professional loss.

From top to bottom, this card has action, and below, I’ve broken down some of my best bets for the event. All odds are per BetMGM.

Strickland vs. Du Plessis Odds

Sean Strickland -125, Dricus Du Plessis -102

Strickland vs. Du Plessis would be a tremendous main card fight and an even better street fight. But never in a million years did I think with Izzy as middleweight champion that he would lose to Strickland. Strickland has always been unorthodox, unrelenting and, most notably, unhinged. He speaks every bit of his mind, and it has made him a hero in the eyes of some fans and a villain in the eyes of others. Regardless, Strickland doesn’t care, and he’s only here to “collect checks and hurt people.” Now he’s up against a South African, who also doesn’t care how his actions or words affect people and only cares about winning and one day getting the belt. Du Plessis has been in the UFC since 2020, and maybe it’s because of his awkward style or his sheer will, but for the life of me, I can’t figure out how he keeps winning. With every strike he throws, he leaves his chin in the air; he recently fixed his nose, but before that, he was just mouth breathing and getting by with his tenacity. If Derek Brunson had more in the gas tank against Du Plessis, he would’ve finished the hype train. But Du Plessis, like in many fights leading up to this point, has found a way to withstand any firefight and, with his awkwardness has capitalized on the shortcomings of his opponents. His best weapons are his blitzing combos and the power in his hands; he does mix in leg kicks, but they aren’t as threatening as his hands. Du Plessis tends to explode with combos and end fights like he did against Whittaker last year. He also wrestles with the intent to create damage with ground and pound.

Which is where I think the problem will be for him. Strickland may not display his grappling, but if you look back into the early years of his career, you’ll see an athlete capable of scrapping and winning anywhere the fight goes. For this fight, I believe Stickland has the edge because he’s been in more five-round fights in the UFC. His stand-up is cleaner even though it’s unorthodox, and if he can defend the takedown attempts, I believe he will get it done. Du Plessis had issues against Derek Brunson because Brunson was able to wrestle. Strickland has 84% takedown defense, and when he decides to wrestle, he is accurate on 64% of his attempts. He has been knocked out in the past, so getting hit clean can be a problem, but after watching his master class against Izzy, I can’t see a subpar striker (compared to Izzy) like Du Plessis having success. From a betting perspective, I think Du Plessis and Strickland have been tough to finish as of late, and for that reason, I’m picking Strickland to win in the later round or on the scorecards. Sean’s endless gas tank, jab, and takedown defense will be the difference Saturday night. 

Best Bets: Sean Strickland ML -125 | Strickland in Rounds 4, 5 or by decision +200

Pennington vs. Bueno Silva Odds

Raquel Pennington +137, Mayra Bueno Silva -157

Pennington has been a staple of women’s MMA in the UFC since 2013. “Rocky” is 12-5 in the UFC and is currently on a five-fight winning streak. It’s now or never for the former champ as the opportunities to become champion don’t come very often, and at 35, Father Time will eventually catch up. On the other side of the octagon will be Bueno Silva, who realized her dream last year after beating Holly Holm but was stripped of it after a tainted supplement popped her on a drug test. Now, with the opportunity to recapture the title, Bueno Silva is primed and feels that her becoming champ is inevitable. She is also on a winning streak, with three wins inside the distance. With 70% of her wins coming by submission, Bueno Silva is a submission threat and will look to take this fight to the ground where Pennington is likely to struggle. Pennington does defend 63% of takedowns coming her way, and she’s also very strong. Still, she’s had issues with powerful strikers, and Bueno Silva, along with her grappling, can crack with her hands. Rocky has only been stopped once in her career, and it happened against future hall of famer Amanda Nunes. Bueno Silva has a high potential for a finish in this fight, but it’s more likely that it goes the distance, and both athletes give us a war! I’m going with Bueno Silva to finish the job in the later rounds or on the cards after a hard-fought scrap.

Best Bets: Mayra Bueno Silva by submission or decision -140 | Mayra Bueno Silva in Roubds 4, 5, or by decision +170

Magny vs. Malott Odds

Neil Magny +275, Mike Malott -350

With 60% of his wins by submission and 40% by knockout, Malott is a rising star in the UFC but has been a pro since 2011. He made a name for himself after winning his contender series fight in the first round by guillotine in 39 seconds. Since then, he’s finished every opponent the UFC puts in front of him and has yet to pass the second round in his entire career. Mallot has a wealth of experience, and even though he’s young in the UFC, his experience as a coach lends to how comfortable he looks in the octagon. Malott averages just over five minutes of fight time, 4.21 significant strikes landed per minute, and nearly three takedowns per 15 minutes. He also averages almost two submission attempts per fight, fights that don’t last very long, indicating that Malott is very lethal and precise.

Magny is once again stepping in as the gatekeeper, a role he has played well for some time now, serving as the ultimate test for upcoming fighters in the welterweight division. He utilizes a rangy attack mixed in with a powerful clinch and relentless grappling that usually drowns his opponents. He has a two-inch height advantage and seven-inch reach advantage in this matchup, and like usual I expect Magny to try and drag Malott into deep waters. As mentioned before, Malott has never been past the second round and has only been that far once in his entire career. So, there are still many questions to be answered for Malott. Magny has to survive Malott’s fury in the first round, and he can find success the longer this fight goes on. Still, at 36, the unrelenting pace that Mangy sets looks to be catching up to him. In his last five fights, he has been finished twice by submission. Throughout his career, Magny has been susceptible to being submitted, and considering Malott hunts for submissions, there’s a high chance that this fight ends within the distance.

Another critical factor is that Malott is fighting in his hometown and staying at his mom’s house for this camp. I don’t think there is a fighter more locked in right now than Malott, and I expect him to put on another outstanding performance and continue his dominance. Magny has had a good run, and even though he says he has years left before he retires, at 36, Father Time is beginning to catch up to him. From a betting perspective, I will take Malott by submission +135 because that is his preferred path to victory. I also like the play on Malott winning in the third round or by decision +240. Malott can likely find a finish within the first two rounds, as Magny has been finished recently inside two rounds. But considering Magny just went the distance with Ian Garry and Phil Rowe after being finished, I think he’s still durable and game-enough to drag this into deep waters before getting finished. Also, because Malott is fighting in his backyard, I expect him to be more calculated and not rush the finish and let the fight come to him. 

Best Bets: Mike Malott by submission +135 | Malott in Round 3 or by decision +240 | Malott by submission or points -140 

Barriault vs. Curtis Odds

Marc Andre Barriault +155, Chris Curtis -180

Curtis and Barriault may be relatively new in the UFC but have years of experience before ever entering the UFC. For Curtis, the journey began in 2009, and it wasn’t until 2021 when he got into the UFC and quickly put away two opponents back-to-back. He continued his momentum with a win over dangerous submission artist Rodolfo Viera. He would experience his first loss in the UFC against Jack Hermansson, who taxed Curtiss Gas tank and took over and won on the scorecards. Curtis would end 2022 on a high note with a KO victory over Joaquin Buckley but would reach his ceiling at the beginning of 2023 against Kelvin Gastelum. Now, there was some controversy in that fight because of a headbutt that changed the outcome of the battle that seemed to be going in Curtis’ direction. Then Curtis would try to bounce back against Imavov, and a clash of heads ended the fight in a no-contest and the year for Curtis. In 2024, Curtis is looking to get back into the win column over “the Powerbar” Barriault, who up until his last fight was a one-trick pony with decent striking and a suspect chin. His previous fight showed his most significant improvements, as Barriault now seems to fight behind a pretty jab that keeps him at range and out of fight-ending exchanges. Against Eryk Anders, Barriault picked Anders apart with his striking, something that in the past would have seemed impossible. Barriault is a berserker and now looks to use his style to beat Curtis. From a betting standpoint, I’m going to side with Curtis, who overall seems to be more well-rounded and also packs massive power in his hands. Barriault is recently finding his stride, whereas Curtis has the technical depth and experience to win. It’s also important to note that Barriault has had issues with his chin in the past and Curtis has the right amount of power to turn the lights off. 

Best Bets: Chris Curtis by KO/TKO or points -185 | Curtis in Round 3 or by decision +120

Allen vs. Evloev Odds

Arnold Allen +165, Movsar Evloev -205

Kicking off the main card is possibly the best fight on the card. Evloev and Allen have been on a slow trajectory to the top. Allen has been on such a slow approach that, if you just started watching MMA last year, you wouldn’t have known he’s been on the UFC roster since 2015. Allen has a systematic approach, averaging nearly three significant strikes landed per minute and defending 61% of strikes coming his way, and is also very aggressive when he sees an opening. He also defends takedowns 76% of the time, a stat that will be tested against the wrestling-heavy attack from Evloev. Allen is currently 4-1 in his last five fights, with his most recent fight ending in a loss to legend Max Holloway. Holloway seems to beat everyone that isn’t Volkanovski, but Allen still fought well and had moments in that fight that showed he belongs amongst the ranked in the featherweight division. Evloev doesn’t have the same experience in the UFC that Allen has, but the Russian has shown the ability to utilize his wrestling at a very high level. Evloev’s wrestling is an A, B, and C game plan, and everything he does is predicated on his ground control. Still, he is a bit green on the ground and can be put in danger, as displayed against Diego Lopes last year. Although he was positionally dominant, Evloev did get hit often, and many times in the fight, he was almost finished on the ground. At 17-0, it’s easy to go with the side of consistency, but sooner or later, he will meet his match Physically, which could be the difference in this fight. Allen I believe, is strong enough to fend off the takedowns, and even if he gets put down, I expect him to lean on his wrestling to scramble and get back to the feet where he can tag Evloev. Evloev has good striking, but it’s mostly a means to an end, while Allen has knockout power in his hands. I’m taking a shot on the dog in this fight and taking Allen to win outright and by decision. 

Best Bets: Arnold Allen ML +158 | Arnold Allen by decision +310