Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! It’s TNT Thursday! I’m sure you’re sick of reading about how much I love the TNT broadcast, but I feel it’s my duty to draw as much attention to it as possible in the hopes that we see more of it.
There must be several if not dozens of high-level NBA people reading this article, and they need to know that I need more TNT Tuesdays and TNT Thursdays. I’m only asking for two days a week for the entire season. That’s less than 30% of the entire week! The broadcast teams calling the game are great, and Ernie Johnson, Kenny Smith, Shaquille O’Neal and Charles Barkley are far and away the best studio shows in all of sports. We get to see great basketball and hear great basketball minds teach us more about the great game of basketball. Let’s get to just that and dive into each game, see what might happen, and hopefully find a wager worthy of our money.
NBA Best Bets for Thursday
Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz
Current Line – Thunder -3.5, 243.5
My Projection – Thunder 125, Jazz 117
Key Injuries – None
I love the rare clean injury report in January, especially when the game involves two fun teams like this. While everyone has been worrying about the struggles of the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors, the Jazz have won 14 of their last 16 games and climbed past both of those teams in the standings. Utah is a fun team without any singular star, but full of quality NBA starting-caliber players. Jordan Clarkson, Kelly Olynyk and Walker Kessler all come off the bench for the Jazz, and each could be a starter elsewhere. Of course, some of this is coaching decisions, but it does speak to the depth Utah has and depth is arguably the most important thing a team can have in the survivor contest we know better as the NBA regular season. Unfortunately, Thursday they face a deeper team with more talent and bona fide candidates for the Most Valuable Player and Rookie of the Year awards. The Thunder lost both games of their recent Los Angeles double against the Lakers and Clippers, but those were awful schedule spots for the Thunder and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was dealing with a knee injury. SGA is healthy and the Thunder had a much-needed day off to recover. Oklahoma City is better than the Utah at almost every position and Jalen Williams can certainly play Lauri Markannen to a draw. This looks like a great matchup and a bounce back spot for the Thunder. My projections make them eight point favorites and we get a chance to lay only 3.5, so let’s do just that. I’ll be the Thunder -3.5 and would play this a deep as -4.5.
Bet
Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 (-108, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Washington Wizards at New York Knicks -12.5, 234.5
I really want to bet the Knicks and a Wizards team total under in this game, but the prices just aren’t good enough to bet. As I’ve written here many times, the Knicks crush bad teams like the Wizards, but its’ the second night of a back-to-back for New York and Washington has had two days to rest. The Knicks also played a grueling game last night against the Rockets in which New York’s key players all played 37-plus minutes. My projections agree with the current spread and total, so I just can’t see any value in either angle I want to bet and I’m certainly not backing the Wizards unless the books post something truly ludicrous. I’m going to pass on this game.
Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors +2.5, 227.5
The Raptors just traded away their second-best player and second highest-usage player. They also played Wednesday night. So, we’ve got a bad schedule spot and a new lineup to figure out for Toronto. I think they should match up well with this Bulls teams, but I just don’t know how things are going to work without Pascal Siakam. The Bulls have also been a bit of a conundrum for yours truly. I’m not sure I’ve been on the right side of a Chicago Bulls the last few weeks even thought I’ve only bet one or two. The roster isn’t great and Zach LaVine still has one foot out of the door, but they keep finding ways to keep games close or even win them. My projections have this game as a pick ‘em meaning I’d make the spread 0, but I don’t think I have enough data to adequately forecast the Raptors without Siakam yet. No bets for me here.
Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves -12.5, 214.5
I really don’t bet Grizzlies games anymore, because I just don’t know what to make of them. They were awful without Ja Morant to start the season, then great with Ja Morant, then bad with Ja Morant, and now they’re not bad without Ja Morant? They have beaten the Phoenix Suns, Dallas Mavericks, and Golden State Warriors since Morant left. I think Minnesota thrashes Memphis, but I really just don’t know. My projections make this Timberwolves -14 which is an edge, but not a big enough one to bet especially since Memphis remains such a mystery to me. Nothing for me, but I do lean Timberwolves and under on the total.
Indiana Pacers at Sacramento Kings -7.5, 248.5
Tyrese Haliburton is questionable, and the Pacers just acquired a brand new starter in Pascal Siakam. The former Raptor will be donning a yellow jersey from now on, and it’s hard to know what this means for Indiana. Siakam has been a high-usage player who shoots only a 32% shooter from beyond the arc. He should be a great pick and roll partner with Haliburton and a perfect fit next to Myles Turner. I also expect to see Siakam playing small-ball center for several minutes a game and possibly even in crunch. Combine that with the fact the Haliburton might not even play, and I honestly don’t know how you reasonably project what the Pacers are going to do tonight. My only real thought was a Kings team total over, but Indiana plays much slower with Haliburton and the team total for Sacramento is already very high. I can’t bet anything here.
