Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
The UFC ends the year with a banger of a card Saturday in the T-Mobile arena in Vegas. It was initially scheduled to be Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic. An injury to Jon Jones opened the door for the return of Colby Covington in a main event spot against Leon Edwards for the welterweight strap. Edwards is making his second title defense in 2023 and calls this fight a legacy fight for his career, a fight that can change the lives of his family for generations. Covington is returning after being on the shelf with injuries for over a year.
Many believe that his wrestling will be the answer to dethroning the champ. Still, after two successful wins against Kamaru Usman, Edwards is filled with confidence and momentum and is sure he has the answers to put Covington away. The co-main event features two firecrackers when Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval meet again, but this time, the title is on the line. Pantoja will defend his belt for the first time after beating Brandon Moreno in June to capture it. A win over Royval will be the perfect icing to a life-changing Year for Pantoja.
Wonderboy is also on the main card and looking to continue to spite Father Time as the 40-year-old challenges the most dangerous man in the division and perhaps the UFC Shavkat Rakhmonov. Rakhmonov has never been to a decision in his career and looks to keep his 100% finish rate intact this weekend. Initially, the second fight on the main card, Tony Ferguson and Paddy Pimblett, will go to war and kick off the main card after Ian Garry pulled out of his battle with pneumonia.
There are 14 incredible fights on this card, and below, I’ve broken down the main card fights and produced a best bet for each. All bets and odds below can be found on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Edwards vs. Covington Odds
Leon Edwards -160, Colby Covington +124
“Rocky” Edwards steps into the octagon once again. This time, he’s up against “Chaos” Covington. Fresh off his title defense against Kamaru Usman, Edwards is riding momentum and a winning streak that started back in 2015. Utilizing kickboxing, athleticism and precision, he is as well-rounded as they come. His weakness was thought to be his wrestling, and he was exposed in the first fight against Usman. Still, his kickboxing and power shined through when he pulled a win out of the fire in the dying seconds of the battle. The head kick heard around the world set him up for stardom, and in the immediate rematch, he displayed improvements to his takedown defense and showed once again that he was the superior striker.
Covington has always been the definition of relentless. His style is rooted in wrestling, and he also uses his gas tank to outpace his opponents until they break. He isn’t the sharpest striking, only connecting on 34% of significant strikes, but like his nickname, he creates car crashes and doesn’t let opponents breathe. Like Edwards, Covington has also challenged Usman in the past, and in their first matchup, he was stopped late in the fight. In their second matchup, Covington was dominated and lost Unanimously. I’m not a big fan of math, but if we’re doing MMA math, Usman beat Covington twice, and Edwards beat Usman twice. One of the wins you can call a fluke because of the last-second KO, but the second fight is why I’m picking Leon to win this weekend. Leon neutralized Usman in the second fight, and even though he was taken down, he bounced back up each time, chewed Usman’s legs up, and beat him in the stand-up.
Covington is not the better striker in this matchup, and after having walked through his most challenging test twice. I expect Edwards to be the best he’s ever been in the wrestling department. Not to mention the disparity in the striking numbers between the fighters, Edwards has a three-inch height advantage coupled with a two-inch reach advantage. Covington averages more significant strikes, landing 4.10 per minute, but as I mentioned before, he only connects on 34% of those strikes and absorbs 3.05 significant strikes per minute. Edwards averages 2.80 significant strikes landed per minute and connects on 53% of strikes thrown. He also has the power edge, as 7 of his wins have comeby knockout compared to Covington’s two wins that happened almost a decade ago. I do expect this fight to go the distance or at least into the championship rounds.
Both athletes average nearly 17 minutes of fight time, and both are very durable. Therefore, I’ll pick Edwards to defend his belt and find the finish late or win on the scorecards. There could also be a split decision — currently, for the fight to go to a split decision sits at +300 on FanDuel. It’s good value, considering we’re fighting in front of Donald Trump, and Colby is his most prominent advocate. Still, I fully expect Edwards to defend takedowns better than ever and win the exchanges on the feet easily.
Bet: Leon Edwards by KO/TKO or decision -145 | Leon Edwards in Rounds 4, 5 or by decision.
Royval vs. Pantoja Odds
Brandon Royval +158, Alexandre Pantoja -205
Royval has been in the UFC since 2020, and immediately, he made a name for himself with wins over Tim Elliott and Kai Kara France. His rookie year would end on a low, though, after he sustained an injury during his fight with Brandon Moreno, which led to his first UFC loss. Royval would return a year later to face Alexandre Pantoja. Considering the skill sets, this matchup was sure to produce fireworks. Pantoja implemented his grappling-heavy game plan while Royval scrambled and never accepted any positions. Eventually, though, due to the strength and technical prowess of Pantoja, he was able to secure a second-round submission finish. Royval is very well-rounded and has a god-like gas tank, but his problem is his take-down defense and how much he’s had to fight off his back in fights.
If Royval can negate takedowns and chip away from a distance, I give him the edge, but the fact that he gets taken down on average 2-3x per fight and has a defensive takedown average of 39%. I can’t see Royval having much success against someone who already beat him and whose only problem was his gas tank in their first matchup. As long as Pantoja doesn’t have gas tank issues, he should be able to take Royval down multiple times and work his way to a submission. Even if the fight stays standing, Pantoja averages 4.41 significant strikes landed, connects on 48% of strikes thrown, and defends 66% of takedowns coming his way. Royval will push the pace as he often does, but I can’t imagine Pantoja gassing out in this matchup, and while the scrambles will be exciting, the strength and power of Pantoja will shine through to make the difference.
Bet: Alexandre Pantoja by submission or points -115 | Alexandre Pantoja in Rounds 1, 2 or 3 +115
Rakhmonov vs. Thompson Odds
Shavkat Rakhmonov -720, Stephen Thompson +450
3-2 in his last five fights, with his most recent win over Kevin Holland, “Wonderboy” Thompson is making a good case for one last title run before he hangs up the four-ounce gloves. His fight against Holland was surprising because he showed no signs of slowing down and looked as sharp as ever. Wonderboy averages 4.20 significant strikes landed per minute, connects on 45% of strikes thrown and defends 64% of takedowns coming his way. He’s also accurate and connects on nearly 50% of strikes thrown. For Thompson to have success this weekend, he needs to not only be sharp but also capable of stopping the takedowns and making this fight ugly.
Rakhmonov has been the division’s dark horse for some time now. The “Nomad” is currently 17-0 with a 100% finish rate. He has only been to the third round twice in his career and once inside the UFC. Rakhmonov is a tall, powerful striker who can wrestle at an elite level. To succeed this weekend, he must stay clear of the head kicks and crowd Thompson, not letting him have the space he needs to create damage. The karate style of Thompson doesn’t do well in close quarters, and while he rarely has been finished in fights, he has been controlled quite a bit in the past. Anything can happen in MMA, but I’m having difficulty finding a path to victory for Thompson. Sure, he will land some kicks and perhaps even defend the initial takedown attempts. Eventually, though, I expect Rakhmonov to take Thompson down and find the submission. Rakhmonov averages 4.45 significant strikes landed, attempts 1.49 takedowns per fifteen minutes, and is accurate on 59% of strikes thrown. So not only is Rakhmonov more accurate than Thompson, but he absorbs fewer strikes and has the edge in power. The pick is Shavkat Rakhmonov to get the job done inside the distance.
Bet: Shavkat Rakhmonov in Rounds 1 or 2 -115 | Shavkat Rakhmonov by KO/TKO or submission -190
Ferguson vs. Pimblett odds
Tony Ferguson +240, Paddy Pimblett -330
How many losses will Ferguson rack up before he calls it quits? I’m not sure anyone can answer that question, but he is determined to prove that he still has what it takes to be considered world-class. Even though he has looked like a shell of himself in his last couple of fights, Ferguson is celebrated every time he fights because outside of this ugly losing streak, El Cucuy was once the most feared fighter in the UFC, let alone his division. With every fight and loss, though, it’s getting harder and harder to watch and even harder to get behind as a bettor. Ferguson has had flashes of the past when he knocked down Bobby Green and showed he could still scrap against Chandler for a round. But since his win over Cowboy Cerrone in 2019, Ferguson has never looked the same again. He hasn’t taken the easiest road to redemption fighting a murderer’s row of competition like Belal Muhammad, Justin Gaethje, and Charles Oliveira.
Still, his most telling performances were his most recent against Bobby Green and Nate Diaz. Two very winnable fights, and Ferguson once looked like a shell of himself. He looked slow, confused, and like a fighter trying to reignite his greatness but falling short. Paddy Pimblett has been a rising star from the moment he stepped into the UFC octagon, and every matchup has been against someone who will surely take him out. Yet Pimblett has found a way to win every step of the way, and this weekend, a win over a legend like Ferguson can only further his career and get him closer to a title shot. I give Ferguson a round of applause for still persevering at 39 and making it through hell week with David Goggins. It still doesn’t change the fact that Ferguson is way past his prime, and unless he finds a new chin in his camp, Pimblett will beat him. I hope it’s graceful and not horrific, as watching legends die is always hard. The pick is Paddy the Baddy to get it done inside the distance and sends Ferguson into retirement.
Bet: Paddy Pimblett by submission or decision -145 | Paddy Pimblett by KO/TKO or submission +100
