UFC 291 MMA Betting Odds (7/29)

If you look up the word “violence” in the dictionary, you’ll find the faces of Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier. These guys have over 25 fights and have won their contests by knockout over 50% of the time. The co-main event at this week’s UFC 291 features two more heavy hitters, when Alex Pereira jumps up a division to challenge for the vacant light heavyweight strap.

Stephen Thompson continues to defy Father Time and steps in to fight the dangerous Michel Pereira months after defeating another fighter on this card Kevin Holland. We also witness Tony Ferguson make his way back into the octagon in hopes of snapping his five-fight losing streak against Bobby Green. Finally, kicking off the main card is the always-exciting Kevin Holland as he steps in for the second time this year against veteran Michael Chiesa.

Below is a breakdown of the five fights on the main card. After each breakdown, I provided what I think are the best bets for each contest. All odds are per BetMGM.

Poirier vs. Gaethje Odds

Dustin Poirier -145, Justin Gaethje +120

Poirier is 29-7-0 overall as a pro; he has 15 wins by KO, seven by submission and seven by decision. Boring is not a word you’d use to describe him. Since the beginning, he has answered the bell and stepped in against the best the lightweight division offers, most of the time more than once. He’s fought Max Holloway twice, Eddie Alvarez twice and Conor Mcgregor three times. Now for a second time is stepping in against arguably the most exciting fighter to ever compete in MMA.

Poirier has never lost a rematch fight, and interestingly enough, Gaethje has never been in one. Their first fight was five years ago, and not much can be taken and used from that performance that could help either fighter find an edge. But it needs to be said that if it was to go to the cards, Gaethje might’ve won. He did lose a point because of an eye poke, but Poirier was visibly on his last leg and starting to feel the damage. Both fighters were wearing a lot of damage, but Poirier spent the majority of the fight on his back foot (though he did land over 65% of his strikes), and Gaethje’s durability almost outlasted his gas tank. If Poirier doesn’t stun Gaethje, perhaps Gaethje’s leg kicks to end the fight.

Outside of his boxing, Poirier’s best quality is durability. Just like a diamond, he can withstand heavy fire from his opponents and continue to look for finishes. Against Chandler, he was hurt pretty badly and possibly down on the scorecards going into the last round. Once again, he capitalized on hurt and tired Chandler and found a finish early in the third round.

These two combatants were made for each other, for the spotlight, and for the sport of mixed martial arts. When they first fought each other, they were ranked Nos. 5 and 6. Now they’re ranked Nos. 2 and 3. They have been on a collision course for five years, and finally, we get to watch it unfold this Saturday.

From a betting perspective, I will side with Poirier for a few reasons. First, he has speed, power and technique advantages — all attributes Gaethje possesses as well, but in a battle of inches, Poirier is slightly more polished. He also has good defensive tendencies that help in chaotic fights. Gaethje also absorbs nearly eight significant strikes per minute, and while his durability is also his best quality, taking too many left hands from Poirier has proven to be dangerous in the past. I will also bet the fight goes over two and a half rounds. Both guys have been in three-round fights recently and have been to decisions. That tells me that if the fight gets violent, it’ll be in the later rounds. Both fighters average over ten minutes of fight time, and if Gaethje stays true to his recent evolution, I can see him staying composed and fighting behind his jab like he did against Fiziev. 

Bet: Dustin Poirier ML -145 | Poirier/Gaethje over 2.5 rounds -120 | Poirier in Rounds 4/5 or decision +260

Blachowicz vs. Pereira Odds

Jan Blachowicz -115, Alex Pereira -105

Pereira came into the UFC like a heat-seeking missile. The target was current middle champion Israel Adesanya. Making statements in his first three bouts (Michailidis Round 2 KO, Silva 30-27 UA, Strickland Round 1 KO) in the UFC, the feud that started in the kickboxing world would now carry over to MMA. Pereira was known to be the only fighter to beat Izzy twice, once by knockout and another by questionable split decision. Still, the feud sent Pereira’s career into the stratosphere. The feud ended tied with Pereira taking the belt away from the champ in his eighth professional MMA bout. Izzy got the last laugh earlier this year and recaptured the belt, but Pereira’s future is set as one of the scariest men on the planet as he moves up in weight to test new waters against former champion Blachowicz.

At 40 years old, Blachowicz makes his last run toward the belt. It makes sense, since the former champion is now the champion in the heavyweight division. He has had success in the past against middleweights trying to ascend. This time though, he faces a middleweight that naturally walks around thirty pounds heavier than the light heavyweight limit. It’s important to note that Pereira began at middleweight because of his mission to take out the champ. He suffered in those weight cuts and possibly took years off his short MMA career. Now fighting at his natural weight, his already scary power could increase in this new weight class. Not to mention that his experience in back-to-back championship fights will help him stay calm in this challenge.

Blachowicz had success against high-level strikers, perhaps the best being Adesanya. When things got tough for Blachowicz in that fight, he pivoted toward his wrestling and secured critical takedowns. The difference between Izzy and Pereira is strength and size, and because of that fact, I don’t think Blachowicz has the same success on the ground. Periera boasts a 75% takedown defense and has Glover Teixeira as his coach (he beat Blachowicz to become champion), which means he’s ready for any environment the fight enters. Blachowicz is going to have to wrestle often in this fight. If he takes the same approach as he did against Izzy and tries to strike with Poatan, it could end ugly. Blachowicz is defensively sound, only absorbing 2.38 significant strikes per minute. Still, his accuracy (49%) compared to Pereira’s (69%) is concerning because Poatan is an elite counter striker, and it doesn’t take many punches to put the lights out.

Blachowicz has power, which was noticed in his first title run, but he’s won most of his fights by decision (38%). He does have a mighty right hand (31% of wins by KO), but he hasn’t knocked anyone out in two years. He also has won by submission (31%), but if he can’t secure the takedown, then it won’t even matter. With Pereira moving up to his natural weight, I don’t think Blachowicz will have the goods to stop him. Blachowicz has to fight methodically and look to make this fight ugly. If he decides to kickbox with Pereira, I can only see it one way, and that’s Alex Pereira to be king of a new weight class.

Bet: Alex Pereira ML -105 | Pereira/Blachowicz over 1.5 rounds -145 | Pereira in Round 3 or decision +375

Thompson vs. Pereira Odds

Stephen Thompson -150, Michel Pereira +130

“Wonderboy” defies Father Time as he runs toward the title at 40. Ranked No. 7 in the world, Thompson has been in the top 10 for some time now and even though he has suffered some setbacks recently. His performance against Kevin Holland proved that he’s still as sharp or perhaps sharper in his old age. Thompson’s karate style of striking can be imitated but not duplicated. He is a master of range, throws devastating counter punches and utilizes leg kicks better than anyone in UFC history. This matchup is dangerous for Thompson because of his old age and not because of the skill set difference. If Wonderboy were a few years younger, this line would swell near -250.

Pereira is a talented athlete and powerful striker and can also, on occasion, grapple when he’s not backflipping passed the guard. Pereira will have to incorporate grappling into his game plan to have success. He has won by submission, but Wonderboy has never been submitted, and if this turns out to be a kickboxing match, then I can only see it favoring the better striker, Thompson. He’s elite, and he also has the cardio to outlast Pereira, who has shown a weakness in his gas tank. It would be easier to side with Pereira if Thompson didn’t look so good against the much better and more dangerous Holland.

Thompson should roll here; he has the reach advantage and the experience to win in big moments. He’s also shown good durability when hurt, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he catches Pereria with a head kick and ends the fight. Pereira is erratic and, at times, enters the zone with his hands down. It’s. It’s power vs. experience, and I will side with the vet. 

Bet: Stephen Thompson ML -150 | Thompson in Round 3 or decision +110

Green vs. Ferguson Odds

Bobby Green -400, Tony Ferguson +300

Ferguson’s fall from grace has been hard to watch. The one-time whirlwind of violence is now merely a gust of wind, and every time he steps into the octagon, fans just hope he makes it out in one piece. He is 0-5 in his last five fights. Three of those fights ended terribly as Gaethje knocked him out, almost got his head taken off his shoulders by Chandler and was subbed by Nate Diaz in the most recent fight. Even though it hasn’t looked pretty, Ferguson still thinks he has what it takes to make a run toward a title.

Unfortunately, his durability issues in recent fights say otherwise, and Green should be able to find a win in this matchup. Green didn’t look good in his most recent outing, and even though it was ruled a win initially, his fight against Jared Gordon was ruled a no-contest due to a head butt. Green doesn’t specialize in any skill set, but he is tough and has enough power and wrestling chops to mix it up against Ferguson. Green tends to start slow, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Tony got ahead early, but once he picks up momentum, he should be able to pick Tony apart. There is no way that I am laying the -400 number on Green, but I will take a shot on a prop to reduce the chalk. 

Bet: Bobby Green ML and over 2.5 rounds -110 | Green/Ferguson fight goes the distance -120

Holland vs. Chiesa Odds 

Kevin Holland -145, Michael Chiesa +120

Holland kicks off the main card with a bang. He takes on another veteran, Chiesa, in a striker vs. grappler matchup. Holland is 24-9-0, 3-2 in his last five fights. One of those recent losses was against Khamzat Chimaev, the other to Stephen Thompson. The only thing Holland may be lacking is confidence because of his recent few losses, but skill level, he has it in spades, and if he can neutralize the takedown attempts from Chiesa, then it should be smooth sailing for Holland.

Chiesa doesn’t have enough volume, averaging under two significant strikes per minute. He uses his strikes to set up takedowns, and once on the ground is when he’s most effective. Yet in this matchup, if he can’t get it to the ground, the low output and lack of technique will get him knocked out against the much faster, longer and more powerful Holland. Since fighting Khamzat, Holland had to re-evaluate his career and even briefly retired. This matchup against Chiesa is winnable on both sides, but the fighter with the better tool set and more ways to win is Holland. From a betting perspective, I’m taking Holland to win and for the fight to go over one and a half rounds. Both fighters average well over 7.5 minutes of fight time, and Holland is looking to make another statement like he did against Ponzinibio. 

Bet: Kevin Holland ML -145 | Holland ML and over 1.5 rounds +200 | Holland/Chiesa over 1.5 rounds -150