UFC 259 DFS picks

Welcome to my DFS breakdown for UFC Vegas 259: Blachowicz vs Adesanya! After a rare week off last weekend, we’re back with a massive 15 fight slate on a PPV which means massive DFS prize pools. I’m super excited for this weekend, big slates mean more spread out ownership and more decision-making points, which we should always want as +EV players who are theoretically making correct decisions. Additionally, we have three five-round title fights which adds to some strategy that I’ll touch on in this article and we’ll also discuss over in the MMA DFS Discord.

In this article I’ll touch on my favorite fighter to target in each price tier: High ($9K), Mid ($8K-8.9K) and low (<$8K). If you’re interested in DFS and betting takes for every fight on this card, you can check out my video breakdown with Jon Kelly.

High tier: Islam Makhachev ($9,400)

Makhachev is our second most expensive fighter on DraftKings this week, and it’s for good reason. It’s no secret that the new DK scoring system massively favors grapplers, and that’s exactly what Makhachev will bring to the table. Lined as a -400 favorite on the ML against Drew Dober, Makhachev feels like a safe bet to get a victory on Saturday, and his path to doing so likely comes with multiple takedowns. The fighter from Dagestan averages more than a takedown per round and also is proficient in raking up top control time. Dober defends takedowns at just 58% so it feels like a matter of if and not when for Makhachev getting this fight to the ground, and once that happens I actually think the chances of a win by submission are much better than the vegas odds indicate. There are some big favorites in five-round fights among the top of DK pricing in Nunes and Adesanya, so I expect the ownership on Makhachev to be one that’s easy to get overweight on. 

Other options: Amanda Nunes, Israel Adesanya. Pretty much anybody in this range is a decent option, I’ll be underweight on Bautista. 

Mid-tier: Tim Elliott ($8,200)

Elliott has always been one of those fighters that is a better DFS option than real-life fighter because of his grinding, takedown-heavy approach. With the new DK scoring, that’s even more true. He’s currently lined as a pick-em against Jordan Espinosa in a fight where Espinosa should win the majority of striking exchanges and Elliott will be forced to win via wrestling. That’s nothing unusual for Elliott, who averages over 4 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts takedowns at a nearly 3 TDA/round clip. Espinosa has a 90% takedown defense on paper and a wrestling background, but Elliott is relentless and once the fight hits the ground, I actually think has a good chance to finish due to the fact that we’ve seen Espinosa panic on the mat before and get tapped out twice. This isn’t a guy to go all-in on as the fight really is nearly 50/50, but Elliott has shown a real DFS ceiling even in decision wins. 

Other options: Uros Medic, Aleksander Rakic, Petr Yan. This isn’t my favorite range on the slate at all. 

Low tier: Aljamain Sterling ($7,800)

Aljamain Sterling figures to be one of the highest owned fighters on Saturday’s slate at just $7,800, but I want to get overweight on that ownership number. “Aljo” is competing for the 135-pound title against Petr Yan and has a potential floor of five rounds in a fight that is now lined nearly a pick-em in Vegas, yet Sterling is $600 cheaper than Yan in DFS. Sterling has a very unorthodox striking style, but it works for DFS, as he lands nearly 5 strikes per minute and also is able to mix in his wrestling with opportunistic submission upside. This is a matchup I like for Sterling, I think he can get ahead early and utilize that unique style to give Yan some problems and look like a small favorite here. Sterling has put up 94,104,81,100, 95 points during his current five-fight win streak and none of those fights reached the championship rounds. Sterling will be in the majority of my lineups tomorrow. 

Other options: Joseph Benavidez, Thiago Santos, Kyler Philips, Salon Cruz, Jan Blachowicz, Megan Anderson