Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We have a five-game, best-of-three LPL/LCK slate that is on March 6 starting at 2 a.m. ET. We also have a best-of-one LEC and LCS slate starting at 11 p.m. ET. I’m here to break down my top DFS builds, as well as my strategy around what I’m doing for this slate. The building itself is especially important. If you haven’t had a chance, read up on the Esports 101 article.
I want to stress the importance of #hedgelife. Dive into this, as it is very important to my success in Esports.
As previously mentioned, my focus for this article is around my plan for these slates. I have gone into this plenty in the past, but I want to discuss #hedgelife and what this means. When I say hedge, I really mean that we want to have action on both sides of the match. I will provide a ranking of my favorite stacks, but just because a stack is ranked last, doesn’t mean I’ll have them in just one of my lineups. A few people have been lucky with game stacking in some of these slates, which means having both teams playing each other as your lineup. I do not recommend this approach, as it doesn’t often hit. Make sure to follow my Twitter for updates on starting lineups and any changes that I will be making as I research throughout the day.
Lastly, I want to touch on contest selection. It’s the most important thing to me, and it’s the reason I hit big more often than not. A lot of DFS players focus on playing in contests with 35,000 people because it’s only $10 to enter and they feel it’s easy to win money. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve had a takedown and it barely cashed in the big GPP. Focus on contests with around 250-300 people, where you can max 7-10 entries. Use the #hedgelife strategy and max enter this contest and use the strategy in this article to profit. Trust me on this one.
Something else I wanted to touch on was the process. I’ve mentioned this quite a few times, but I thought I’d break it down further.
- Contest selection: If you don’t follow me on Twitter, please make sure you do. On a nightly basis, I’ve been tweeting my favorite contests. Find a way to do 10 lineups and focus on contests with under 500 people.
- #HedgeLife: I took a deep dive into this above, but here’s what I mean. If you do a 4-3 BLG-SB line, make sure you also do a 4-3 SB-BLG line. Do one line of four-man SB with SB CPT, then in your next line, do a four-man BLG with BLG CPT. Covers you on both grounds.
- #HedgeLife part deux: If you’re doing 10 lineups with five BLG stacks, make sure to do 2-3 DMO stacks to hedge that game.
Feel free to reach out with any questions, if you have them. It seems like a lot, but it’s important to see what has made me successful in Esports.
LPL/LCK
We FINALLY have the return of the five-game slate. I’m a big fan of this slate and a big fan of some underdogs tonight. DWG and LNG are a lock for me from a four-man and two-man stack standpoint and most likely in 50% of my lineups. I like DWG the most as my top exposure because of price and matchup. DWG is also the best team in the world and on a nine-game winning streak. If they lose, it’s because of draft, but I don’t see how they lose in this matchup. LNG faces one of the worst teams in the LPL, which is LGD, so I like them quite a bit. My absolute favorite match to target is RNG and EDG. I don’t see how you can’t 50/50 hedge this. They are two of the best teams this split, and it could go either way, but I’m choosing RNG to win 2-1. They are severely underpriced and fit with everyone. I love RNG in four-man stacks, but I will probably run two-man stacks with LNG and DWG. I’m probably full fading T1 because we won’t have lineups before lock, but be on the lookout for Discord, as we might hear something and I might play one lineup. KT is terrible, but they have the chance to upset, so I don’t mind two-man stacks here. Lastly, FPX-RA is a hedge for me with the lean to FPX. They are severely underpriced as a favorite.
DWG
CPT Options – Ghost, Showmaker, Canyon
Player Pool – All in play
LNG
CPT Options – Light
Player Pool – All in play (Do NOT play the TOP laner), love Tarzan because he’s too cheap
RNG
CPT Options – Gala
Player Pool – All in Play. Xhaihou is my favorite play here in flex
EDG
CPT Options – Scout, Viper
Player Pool – All in Play
FPX
CPT Options – Lwx
Player Pool – All in play
RA
Player Pool – Leyan, FoFo, IBoy
I will update everyone in Discord if anything changes on my exposures and predictions. Remember to ONLY do 3-3 or 4-2 stacks. ONE offs are not viable unless you’re hedging in the team spot.
Good luck on this slate!
LEC
We have our favorite best-of-one contest tomorrow, and I want four-man stacks of G2 or FNC. G2 is on a seven-game winning streak and is absolutely crushing this league. FNC is underperforming but is second behind G2 in most kills per win. XL and VIT is the battle of the two worst teams, and I feel it is going to be bloody even though they aren’t aggressive teams. My focus is G2 with XL even though VIT is the favorite. I believe S04 ends their losing streak tomorrow, as they face the worst team in the LEC, but it worries me. RGE is usually a passive team, but going against the kill feeding MAD Lions team, so I don’t mind RGE tomorrow in two- or four-man stacks.
FNC
CPT Options – Upset, Nisqy, Selfmade, Bwipo
Player Pool – All in Play
G2
CPT Options – Rekless, Caps
Player Pool – All in play (Less on Wunder)
XL
CPT Options – Patrik
Player Pool – Patrik, Czekolad, Kryze, Dan
VIT
CPT Options – Crownshot
Player Pool – Crownshot, Milica, Skeanz, Szygenda
RGE
CPT Options – Hans Sama
Player Pool – All in play
S04
CPT Options – Neon
Player Pool – All in play
LCS
We have another best-of-one slate here. It seems pretty easy to lock in DIG. 100T played decently with the new MID laner, but I think they will struggle in this matchup against a solid TSM team. I prefer TSM in a two-man stack more than a four-man stack. FLY and CLG should be hedged, but I lean FLY to bounce back, but this match will be bloody. These teams are top three in most deaths per loss so target four-man stacks here. I also prefer a two-man stack for EG and C9, but they are teams we can target tomorrow.
Will update notes on Discord, but based on kills per game, matchup, and Vegas spread, my current preference is:
- DIG
- TSM
- FLY
- CLG
- C9
- EG
