The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (9/30)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats are from the last 30 days via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles betting breakdown

Red Sox (-220), Orioles (+184)
Total: 9.0 runs
Nick Pivetta (R) vs. Alexander Wells (L)

Three things to know

• The Red Sox need to lean on their .348 wOBA in order to make it into the playoffs.
• Camden Yards ranks inside the t-10 in terms of park factor and HR factor.
• The Orioles have fallen off fast with a .302 wOBA and 26.0% strikeout rate.

Best bets: The Red Sox have only a 0.5-game lead over the Mariners, with the Orioles playing for nothing. Take the Sox.

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays betting breakdown

Yankees (+130), Blue Jays (-154)
Total: 8.5 runs
Corey Kluber (R) vs. Robbie Ray (L)

Three things to know

• Who can take this series, which has massive playoff implications? The Blue Jays evened things up Wednesday.
• Toronto has been death row to pitch to — a league-leading .363 wOBA, including a .243 ISO.
• The Yankees mediocre offense remains, well, mediocre — they are 10th in wOBA and ISO for the last 30 days. Giancarlo Stanton has bopped 11 long balls in the last month.

Best bets: Wednesday was impressive in clocking Gerrit Cole. I like the Jays big time in this one.

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves betting breakdown

Phillies (+132), Braves (-156)
Total: 8.5 runs
Kyle Gibson (R) vs. Ian Anderson (R)

Three things to know

• Atlanta has been solid at the dish recently, logging a .211 ISO and .321 wOBA.
• The Phillies? They rank in the top five in both marks, ahead of the Braves.
• The Phillies have to be done after Wednesday night’s game—they’d need to win out and have the Braves lose out.

Best bets: This seems like a last-gasp effort, but I expect the Braves to sweep.

Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals betting breakdown

Guardians (-154), Royals (+130)
Total: 8.5 runs
Shane Bieber (R) vs. Angel Zerpa (L)

Three things to know

• The Royals offense has continued to be, well, mediocre, logging a .161 ISO in the last 30 days.
• The Guardians boast only a .301 wOBA in the last month.
• What can Angel Zerpa give the Royals?

Best bets: I’m curious to see what Bieber can give the Guardians, as he only went three innings last outing. I’m staying away here.

Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros betting breakdown

Rays (+142), Astros (-168)
Total: 8.5 runs
Collin McHugh (R) vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (R)

Three things to know

• The Rays are just silly at the dish, posting a .200 ISO and .333 wOBA.
• Not to be outdone, the ‘Stros have recorded a .184 ISO and .334 wOBA.
• Is this an AL Pennant preview? It sure seems like it and the first two games have been tight.

Best bets: The Rays managed the opener and the bullpen beautifully. Take them again.

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Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants betting breakdown

Diamondbacks (+180), Giants (-215)
Total: 8.5 runs
Madison Bumgarner (L) vs. Scott Kazmir (L)

Three things to know

• I can’t believe Scott Kazmir is still pitching, but here we are.
• The Diamondbacks .282 wOBA is second worst, and their .142 ISO is third worst.
• The Giants .359 wOBA (second best) has been one of the best offenses all year.

Best bets: This NL West race is just silly. The Giants have 104 wins and could be a Wild Card. Nutty. Take them again here.

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers betting breakdown

Padres (+190), Dodgers (-230)
Total: 9.0 runs
Vince Velasquez (R) vs. Tony Gonsolin (R)

Three things to know

• The Dodgers need to wake up at the plate — their .321 wOBA is only 12th.
• The Padres have been awful lately, logging a .307 wOBA and .152 ISO.
• The Padres are 25-40 since the All-Star break.

Best bets: The Dodgers have to beat this free-falling Padres team to win the West. Take them yet again.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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