The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (9/1)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats are from the last 30 days via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays betting breakdown

Orioles (+205), Blue Jays (-250)
Total: 9.5 runs
Matt Harvey (R) vs. Steven Matz (L)

Three things to know

• The Orioles have been mediocre in the last month with a 23.4% strikeout rate and .315 wOBA.
• The Jays have been struggling – they are actually in the bottom 10 in wOBA in the last month.
• Matt Harvey is surviving with a low strikeout rate (17.8%) offset by a high ground-ball rate (42.3%).

Best bets: Another day, and another same-game parlay on the Blue Jays.

Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers betting breakdown

Athletics (-176), Tigers (+148)
Total: 9.5 runs
James Kaprielian (R) vs. Wily Peralta (R)

Three things to know

• The Athletics may have saved their season winning the last two games of the Yankees series. Can they take care of the Tigers?
• The A’s have been cooking at the dish recently — they are 11th in team wOBA in the last month.
• The Tigers have stunk at the dish in the last 30 days — they rank in the bottom three in walk rate, ISO, and wOBA.

Best bets: The OVER. The A’s woke up a bit Tuesday, and I think they pound Peralta.

Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals betting breakdown

Guardians (+108), Royals (-126)
Total: 9.0 runs
Logan Allen (L) vs. Mike Minor (L)

Three things to know

• The Guardians have been going beast mode at the dish — they clock in sixth in wOBA with a .336 mark.
• Did Amed Rosario resurrect his career? The dude has been slammin’ at the plate and went 5-for-5 Tuesday.
• KC needs to pick it up — over the last month, they are sixth worst in the league in wOBA (.296).

Best bets: I love the road Guardians here — Allen is decent and the offense has been fire.

Chicago Cubs at Minnesota Twins betting breakdown

Cubs (+144), Twins (-172)
Total: 9.0 runs
Justin Steele (L) vs. Joe Ryan (R)

Three things to know

• The Cubs have a weird profile in the last month — they rank 20th in team wOBA with a whopping 30.8% whiff rate.
• The Twins held their own for a bit, but for now in the last month, they are 18th in team wOBA (.318).
• This looks like a bullpen day for both teams. Who can come out on top?

Best bets: The John Gant prop hit again; peek at Ryan’s mark and try and hit it again.

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Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox betting breakdown

Pirates (+290), White Sox (-360)
Total: 9.0 runs
Max Kranick (R) vs. Carlos Rodón (L)

Three things to know

• The White Sox are smoking — they have a .184 ISO and .334 wOBA in the last month.
• The Pirates are the league’s worst offense in the same time frame in terms of walk rate, ISO and wOBA.
• With Lucas Giolito leaving Tuesday due to a tight hamstring, can Carlos Rodón pick up the slack in his absence?

Best bets: The Sox — they are white hot at the dish and another quality arm takes the mound. 

New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels betting breakdown

Yankees (-275), Angels (+225)
Total: 8.5 runs
Gerrit Cole (R) vs. Packy Naughton (L)

Three things to know

• The Yankees need to wake up at the plate – their .163 ISO and 24.6% whiff rate is ugly over the last month.
• The Angels are smack dab in the middle offensively over the same time frame, ranking 15th in wOBA and ISO.
• Can Cole sneak out the Cy Young? Lance Lynn is hitting the IL opening the door.

Best bets: The OVER hit Tuesday, and I like it again here. This Angels offense could get to Cole.

Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants betting breakdown

Brewers (+150), Giants (-178)
Total: 7.5 runs
Brett Anderson (L) vs. Kevin Gausman (R)

Three things to know

• The Brewers are finally waking up at the plate — they are sixth best in team wOBA (.332).
• The Giants have screeched to a halt on offense, ranking 19th in the same metric.
• The Giants have been playing fine in their recent run (9-7 in L16), but the Dodgers have narrowed that gap.

Best bets: This pitching matchup is really lopsided, despite Gausman’s recent struggles. Take the Giants in a F3/F5 bet.

Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers betting breakdown

Braves (+184), Dodgers (-220)
Total: 7.5 runs
Max Fried (L) vs. Max Scherzer (R)

Three things to know

• The Dodgers keep rolling – they’ve posted a .178 ISO and .325 wOBA mark over the last 30 days.
• The Braves are neck and neck with the Dodgers, logging a .187 ISO and .324 wOBA over the same time frame.
• It’s the battle of the Maxes — which one can come out on top? Both have been brilliant lately.

Best bets: The UNDER. I think these pitchers hold the offenses down and the UNDER hit Tuesday.

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