The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (8/25)

Each day, we are going to give you a quick preview of the day’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles

Shohei Ohtani (L) vs. Chris Ellis (R)
Angels -208, Orioles +180
Total: 9.5

Three things to know

• Orioles have lost 19 straight games, two shy of the AL record.
• Ohtani on the mound in 2021: 8-1, 3.60 xFIP, 10.8 K/9.
• Baltimore has just a 97 wRC+ vs. RHP this season.

Best bet: I’m not taking a team with 19 straight losses to win, so this is an easy one. I’m a tad surprised Ohtani is not a bigger favorite here, but that’s a positive thing. It means we have some value still on the Angels -208. I prefer to use short prices like this as part of a parlay, because playing it straight up returns under $0.50 per $1. 

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Tyler Gilbert (L) vs. TBD
Diamondbacks -125, Pirates +110
Total: 8.5

Three things to know

• These are two of the worst teams in baseball, record-wise.
• The Pirates are the worst team in baseball vs. LHP (72 wRC+).
• Gilbert threw a no hitter in his first MLB start (Aug, 14), then got hit around his next time vs. the Rockies in Coors.

Best bet: Something feels wrong about taking the D-backs as favorites, but that’s the best way to play it here. Gilbert is young, but he obviously has some good stuff when he’s on. I can excuse that rough last outing as it was in a hitter’s park and off a long game where he threw more pitches than normal. He draws a lineup whose current remaining players own just a 72 wRC+ as a unit. It’s a soft matchup and at a minimum I would take any left-handed pitcher at -125 vs. the Pirates. Let alone one I think is a good young arm. Take the D-Backs -125. Both offenses are bad, so I don’t hate the under 8.5 either.

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies

Ryan Yarbrough (L) vs. Zack Wheeler (R)
Rays +120, Phillies -130
Total: 8/8.5

Three things to know

• The Phillies own a 106 wRC+ vs. LHP.
• The Rays own a 116 wRC+ vs. RHP.
• Wheeler has career bests in xFIP (2.82) and K/9 (10.35) in 2021.

Best bet: Give me the over here, especially if you can find it at 8. I know both of these pitchers are good, but both of these offenses are as week, and this is a hitter’s park in Philly. I respect Wheeler and Yarbrough. I have a slight lean to the Phillies as do the books, which means there is not much value in that number. The total is the best bet, and I like it if you can get the protection of the push on the 8.

Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays

Lucas Giolito (R) vs. Robbie Ray (L)
White Sox +110, Blue Jays -116
Total: 8.5

Three things to know

• Toronto owns the third-best wRC+ vs. RHP at 115.
• Chicago owns the fourth-best wRC+ vs. LHP at 111.
• Both pitchers are in the top tier of starters in MLB.

Best bet: This is one of the best games on the slate with interesting matchups top to bottom on both sides of the field. Both lineups are elite top-five offenses in baseball though, and Toronto is a hitter-friendly park. Good luck trying to figure out who wins when unstoppable forces hit immovable objects. In these cases, I always side with good pitching over good hitting. The bets bet here is to take the under, but I much prefer the idea of passing on this game and just watching as a baseball fan.

Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox

Bailey Ober (R) vs. Nick Pivetta (R)
Twins +143, Red Sox -156
Total: 10.5

Three things to know

• Boston’s 112 wRC+ vs. RHP is fourth best in baseball.
• Minnesota is also not bad vs. RHP at a 102 wRC+, slightly above league average.
• Bailey never goes past 5 innings, if that, in his starts, so expect a lot of bullpen arms.

Best bet: I think the best bet in this game is the under at 10.5. A few places even have it juiced down to -105 at this number, because it’s too high and they have probably already had money come in on the over.

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San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets

Johnny Cueto (R) vs. Taijuan Walker (R)
Giants +101, Mets -109
Total: 8.5

Three things to know

• The current Mets lineup owns a wRC+ of 89 against RHP.
• The Giants current lineup owns a 111 wRC+, sixth best in baseball.
• Both pitchers are above average, and this is a pitcher’s park.

Best bet: Walker has been good this year, slightly better than Cueto. The Giants bats are much better than the Mets bats though, which means they have the higher probability to win the game, although it is very close. At plus money, I’ll take the Giants here as I think they should be favored. 

Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Guardians

Jake Latz (L) vs. Zach Plesac (R)
Rangers +175, Guardians -192
Total: 9/9.5

Three things to know

• Latz making first start after bouncing around the minors.
• Plesac is not great, but Rangers own the second-worst wRC+ vs. RHP at 77.
• Cleveland has a below-average 88 wRC+ vs. LHP.

Best bet: The Guardians should be favored to win this game, but -192 feels a bit too rich to bet. I had this more in the -170 range and think the Rangers at +175 is actually where the value is. Take that now; it will drop before game time,

Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins

Josiah Gray (R) vs. Edward Cabrera (R)
Nationals -108, Marlins +101
Total: 7.5/8

Three things to know

• These are two of the worst-hitting teams in the league, both in the low 80s for wRC+.
• First MLB start for Cabrera.
• Although the 2-2 record doesn’t really show it, Gray has pitched well in August — four straight starts of at least 5 innings in a row with 3 runs or fewer. He owns a 2.86 ERA in August so far.

Best bet: The Nationals have a slight edge in hitting and a big perceived edge in starting pitching. I do not want to leave any of this up to the bullpens, so I actually prefer to play the Nationals on a F5 bet.

Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers

Luis Castillo (R) vs. Brandon Woodruff (R)
Reds +162, Brewers -174 
Total: 7.5

Three things to know

• Castillo has his career-worst xFIP and his strikeouts are down around a K per inning. That number was close to 11 K/9 over the last two years.
• Woodruff is 7-7, but he’s pitched very well in 2021. His ERA and xFIP are career lows and so is his HR/9 rate. He needs run support.
• Cincy is very good vs. RHP, tied for fifth with a 111 wRC+.

Best bet: I hate to bet against Milwaukee here, but the numbers are telling me I should. Cincy has the better lineup. Woodruff is the better pitcher. I agree Milwaukee deserves to be favored, but it’s a tad too high. Cincy at +162 is the value vs. Playing the Brewers at -174. It’s honestly a pass for me, but I wanted you to know what the numbers pointed to.

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres

Walker Buehler (R) vs. Blake Snell (L)
Dodgers -141, Padres +130
Total: 8

Three things to know

• Walker Buehler (R) is a Cy Young candidate this year. He’s been awesome.
• Blake Snell (L) is not having a good year. The strikeouts are there, but the 5.5 walks per 9 are killing him.
• The offenses are rather even, so the advantage is pitching.

Best bet: The Dodgers are too cheap at only -141. It’s disrespectful to Buehler. The Padres are slightly above average vs. RHP (104 wRC+) and the Dodgers are slightly above league average vs. LHP (107 wRC+). The difference comes down to pitching, and Buehler has sparkled this year while it’s been a down year for Snell. 

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