Bettings
article featured image background
Article preview

The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (8/20)

MLB Bets

Authors

author-image

Matt Kupferle

Contributor's Page
Share
Contents
Close

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook

(Get an All Access pass to FTN NFL coverage across all sites for $349.99.)

Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles betting breakdown

Braves (-240), Orioles (+198)
Total: 10.5 runs
Max Fried (L) vs. Keegan Akin (L)

Three things to know

  • The Orioles have only won one of Keegan Akin’s 16 starts this season.
  • In the last month, Max Fried has recorded 34 whiffs in 30 innings with a 2.40 ERA.
  • The Braves are heating up at the plate – they’ve got a .333 wOBA in the last month.

Best bets: The moneyline odds reflect how heavy we should be betting on Atlanta. Smash them in a same-game parlay.

Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds betting breakdown

Marlins (+172), Reds (-205)
Total: 8.5 runs
Elieser Hernandez (R) vs. Sonny Gray (R)

Three things to know

  • The Reds are scorching hot, blasting the ball to a .382 wOBA and .251 ISO in the last week.
  • The Marlins stink – they have a .312 wOBA and a 24.9% whiff rate in the last month.
  • After seemingly turning things around, Luis Castillo has been tagged for a 9.90 ERA in the last month.

Best bets: I think this Reds team is going to make things interesting down the stretch. Bet on them in a big way.

Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees betting breakdown

Twins (+198), Yankees (-240)
Total: 10.5 runs
Charlie Barnes (L) vs. Nestor Cortes Jr. (L)

Three things to know

  • The Yankees need to wake up at the plate – their .163 ISO and 24.6% whiff rate the last 30 days are ugly.
  • Nestor Cortes Jr. has a 3.32 ERA and 1.20 WHIP as a fill-in for the rotation.
  • Despite losing Nelson Cruz, the Twins have logged a .327 wOBA in the last month.

Best bets: New day, same message. Take a look at the OVER and some Yankee homer props.

Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays betting breakdown

Tigers (+245), Blue Jays (-300)
Total: 9.5 runs
Tyler Alexander (L) vs. Robbie Ray (L)

Three things to know

  • Could Robbie Ray win the Cy Young? He seems like a long shot, but his 2.88 ERA this year has been brilliant.
  • The Tigers have to hope for a deep outing from Alexander, as their bullpen was battered yesterday in a meltdown.
  • Toronto has a whopping .206 ISO in the last month.

Best bets: Tyler Alexander has allowed 1.52 HR/9 this year. Bank on all of the righties slamming him tonight.

Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Guardians betting breakdown

Angels (+104), Guardians (-122)
Total: 10.0 runs
Jaime Barria (R) vs. Sam Hentges (L)

Three things to know

  • Jaime Barria was legit before getting slammed last outing by the Astros. Which version is real?
  • The Indians have the fifth-worst team WOBA since the All-Star break.
  • Can Shohei Ohtani yak on one again? He’s got 40 dingers and 18 steals this year.

Best bets: Bet on a Shohei homer just because it’s so damn fun.

(Get an All Access pass to FTN NFL coverage across all sites for $349.99.)

Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox betting breakdown

Rangers (+265), Red Sox (-330)
Total: 8.5 runs
Dane Dunning (R) vs. Chris Sale (L)

Three things to know

  • What happened to the Rangers offensively? Their .244 wOBA in the last month is awful.
  • Boston’s offense has been surging recently – their .343 wOBA and .197 ISO over the last month are at the top of the league.
  • Can the Red Sox use this series to rebound from a sweep at the hand of the bitter Yankees?

Best bets: Slam a Chris Sale prop here – he whiffed eight in his first start.

Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays betting breakdown

White Sox (-126), Rays (+108)
Total: 8.5 runs
Lucas Giolito (R) vs. Michael Wacha (R)

Three things to know

  • The White Sox are straight fire at the dish – their .203 ISO in the last 30 days is fifth best in baseball.
  • Can the Rays stay hot — they are still smashing at the dish with a .364 wOBA over the last 30 days.
  • Which Lucas Giolito is going to show up? He’s been a bit bumpy as of late.

Best bets: Michael Wacha has struggled with the long ball, and the South Siders can hit them. Take them in a F3/F5 bet.

Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros betting breakdown

Mariners (+168), Astros (-200)
Total: 8.5 runs
Yusei Kikuchi (L) vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (R)

Three things to know

  • Lance McCullers Jr. has been brilliant this season, logging a 27.7% strikeout rate.
  • The Astros have heated back up at the dish – their .327 wOBA in the last month has them at 11th in the league.
  • The Mariners have a .310 wOBA over the last month. That’s nothing crazy, but it’s a big improvement over their season mark coming into that stretch.

Best bets: The pitching matchup is a bit more lopsided than you think – slam the Astros here.

Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals betting breakdown

Pirates (+180), Cardinals (-215)
Total: 8.5 runs
Mitch Keller (R) vs. Miles Mikolas (R)

Three things to know

  • The Pirates have scored five runs in their last five games.
  • The Cardinals have a 23.4% strikeout rate and a .180 ISO in the last month.
  • Miles Mikolas is back on the mound, but what does he have in the tank.

Best bets: These teams are both awful at the plate. Bet the UNDER.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies betting breakdown

Diamondbacks (+164), Rockies (-196)
Total: 11.0 runs
Tyler Gilbert (L) vs. Austin Gomber (L)

Three things to know

  • What does Tyler Gilbert have in store after tossing a no-hitter in his first career start?
  • The Rockies have quietly been really good at the dish – in the last month, they sport a .343 wOBA.
  • Arizona has been less potent at the plate, logging a .146 ISO and .312 wOBA.

Best bets: These pitchers are both solid. I am going with the UNDER here.

(Get an All Access pass to FTN NFL coverage across all sites for $349.99.)

San Francisco Giants at Oakland Athletics betting breakdown

Giants (-124), Athletics (+106)
Total: 9.0 runs
Alex Wood (L) vs. James Kaprielian (R)

Three things to know

  • The A’s aren’t exactly crushing the ball (.157 ISO), but they do have a solid .327 wOBA.
  • Numbers can get dicey sometimes – the Giants rank 12th in team WOBA in the last month, but 28th in the last week.
  • Both of these pitchers have been better than expected – can they keep it up?

Best bets: I am probably staying away. The A’s get the pitching edge, but the Giants have the better offense.

New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers betting breakdown

Mets (+215), Dodgers (-260)
Total: 9.5 runs
Carlos Carrasco (R) vs. Walker Buehler (R)

Three things to know

  • The Dodgers keep rolling – they’ve posted a .186 ISO and .326 wOBA mark over the last 30 days.
  • This Mets’ dropoff has been fast – they are now in third place of the NL East.
  • Walker Buehler should be in the Cy Young race, sporting a 3.32 FIP and 27.0% strikeout rate.

Best bets: The Mets are falling, and hard. Take the Dodgers in a F3/F5 bet or a same-game parlay.

Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres betting breakdown

Phillies (+184), Padres (-220)
Total: 9.0 runs
Matt Moore (L) vs. Blake Snell (L)

Three things to know

  • The Padres are sinking, and fast. They are now 10.0 games out of the division, but right fielder (yes, that’s right) Fernando Tatis Jr. is back.
  • Tatis’s return couldn’t have come at a better time – they only have a .317 WOBA in the last month.
  • The Phillies haven’t been much better offensively – in fact, their .312 wOBA is slightly worse with a barely better ISO (.174).

Best bets: Call me crazy, but I actually like the underdog here. Blake Snell is in struggle mode.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

Find the Best MLB Prop Bets

Find the best prices for your favorite props each day here with the FTN Prop Shop.

Sports Betting Tools

Looking for free betting tools to help you win? Try the FTN Parlay Calculator and FTN Prop Shop.

Previous MLB Best Bets for Friday (8/20) Next NFL Vaccination Rate – Which teams are vaccinated in the NFL?