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The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (8/20)

MLB Bets



Matt Kupferle

Contributor's Page

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook

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Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles betting breakdown

Braves (-240), Orioles (+198)
Total: 10.5 runs
Max Fried (L) vs. Keegan Akin (L)

Three things to know

  • The Orioles have only won one of Keegan Akin’s 16 starts this season.
  • In the last month, Max Fried has recorded 34 whiffs in 30 innings with a 2.40 ERA.
  • The Braves are heating up at the plate – they’ve got a .333 wOBA in the last month.

Best bets: The moneyline odds reflect how heavy we should be betting on Atlanta. Smash them in a same-game parlay.

Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds betting breakdown

Marlins (+172), Reds (-205)
Total: 8.5 runs
Elieser Hernandez (R) vs. Sonny Gray (R)

Three things to know

  • The Reds are scorching hot, blasting the ball to a .382 wOBA and .251 ISO in the last week.
  • The Marlins stink – they have a .312 wOBA and a 24.9% whiff rate in the last month.
  • After seemingly turning things around, Luis Castillo has been tagged for a 9.90 ERA in the last month.

Best bets: I think this Reds team is going to make things interesting down the stretch. Bet on them in a big way.

Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees betting breakdown

Twins (+198), Yankees (-240)
Total: 10.5 runs
Charlie Barnes (L) vs. Nestor Cortes Jr. (L)

Three things to know

  • The Yankees need to wake up at the plate – their .163 ISO and 24.6% whiff rate the last 30 days are ugly.
  • Nestor Cortes Jr. has a 3.32 ERA and 1.20 WHIP as a fill-in for the rotation.
  • Despite losing Nelson Cruz, the Twins have logged a .327 wOBA in the last month.

Best bets: New day, same message. Take a look at the OVER and some Yankee homer props.

Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays betting breakdown

Tigers (+245), Blue Jays (-300)
Total: 9.5 runs
Tyler Alexander (L) vs. Robbie Ray (L)

Three things to know

  • Could Robbie Ray win the Cy Young? He seems like a long shot, but his 2.88 ERA this year has been brilliant.
  • The Tigers have to hope for a deep outing from Alexander, as their bullpen was battered yesterday in a meltdown.
  • Toronto has a whopping .206 ISO in the last month.

Best bets: Tyler Alexander has allowed 1.52 HR/9 this year. Bank on all of the righties slamming him tonight.

Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Guardians betting breakdown

Angels (+104), Guardians (-122)
Total: 10.0 runs
Jaime Barria (R) vs. Sam Hentges (L)

Three things to know

  • Jaime Barria was legit before getting slammed last outing by the Astros. Which version is real?
  • The Indians have the fifth-worst team WOBA since the All-Star break.
  • Can Shohei Ohtani yak on one again? He’s got 40 dingers and 18 steals this year.

Best bets: Bet on a Shohei homer just because it’s so damn fun.

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Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox betting breakdown

Rangers (+265), Red Sox (-330)
Total: 8.5 runs
Dane Dunning (R) vs. Chris Sale (L)

Three things to know

  • What happened to the Rangers offensively? Their .244 wOBA in the last month is awful.
  • Boston’s offense has been surging recently – their .343 wOBA and .197 ISO over the last month are at the top of the league.
  • Can the Red Sox use this series to rebound from a sweep at the hand of the bitter Yankees?

Best bets: Slam a Chris Sale prop here – he whiffed eight in his first start.

Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays betting breakdown

White Sox (-126), Rays (+108)
Total: 8.5 runs
Lucas Giolito (R) vs. Michael Wacha (R)

Three things to know

  • The White Sox are straight fire at the dish – their .203 ISO in the last 30 days is fifth best in baseball.
  • Can the Rays stay hot — they are still smashing at the dish with a .364 wOBA over the last 30 days.
  • Which Lucas Giolito is going to show up? He’s been a bit bumpy as of late.

Best bets: Michael Wacha has struggled with the long ball, and the South Siders can hit them. Take them in a F3/F5 bet.

Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros betting breakdown

Mariners (+168), Astros (-200)
Total: 8.5 runs
Yusei Kikuchi (L) vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (R)

Three things to know

  • Lance McCullers Jr. has been brilliant this season, logging a 27.7% strikeout rate.
  • The Astros have heated back up at the dish – their .327 wOBA in the last month has them at 11th in the league.
  • The Mariners have a .310 wOBA over the last month. That’s nothing crazy, but it’s a big improvement over their season mark coming into that stretch.

Best bets: The pitching matchup is a bit more lopsided than you think – slam the Astros here.

Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals betting breakdown

Pirates (+180), Cardinals (-215)
Total: 8.5 runs
Mitch Keller (R) vs. Miles Mikolas (R)

Three things to know

  • The Pirates have scored five runs in their last five games.
  • The Cardinals have a 23.4% strikeout rate and a .180 ISO in the last month.
  • Miles Mikolas is back on the mound, but what does he have in the tank.

Best bets: These teams are both awful at the plate. Bet the UNDER.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies betting breakdown

Diamondbacks (+164), Rockies (-196)
Total: 11.0 runs
Tyler Gilbert (L) vs. Austin Gomber (L)

Three things to know

  • What does Tyler Gilbert have in store after tossing a no-hitter in his first career start?
  • The Rockies have quietly been really good at the dish – in the last month, they sport a .343 wOBA.
  • Arizona has been less potent at the plate, logging a .146 ISO and .312 wOBA.

Best bets: These pitchers are both solid. I am going with the UNDER here.

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San Francisco Giants at Oakland Athletics betting breakdown

Giants (-124), Athletics (+106)
Total: 9.0 runs
Alex Wood (L) vs. James Kaprielian (R)

Three things to know

  • The A’s aren’t exactly crushing the ball (.157 ISO), but they do have a solid .327 wOBA.
  • Numbers can get dicey sometimes – the Giants rank 12th in team WOBA in the last month, but 28th in the last week.
  • Both of these pitchers have been better than expected – can they keep it up?

Best bets: I am probably staying away. The A’s get the pitching edge, but the Giants have the better offense.

New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers betting breakdown

Mets (+215), Dodgers (-260)
Total: 9.5 runs
Carlos Carrasco (R) vs. Walker Buehler (R)

Three things to know

  • The Dodgers keep rolling – they’ve posted a .186 ISO and .326 wOBA mark over the last 30 days.
  • This Mets’ dropoff has been fast – they are now in third place of the NL East.
  • Walker Buehler should be in the Cy Young race, sporting a 3.32 FIP and 27.0% strikeout rate.

Best bets: The Mets are falling, and hard. Take the Dodgers in a F3/F5 bet or a same-game parlay.

Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres betting breakdown

Phillies (+184), Padres (-220)
Total: 9.0 runs
Matt Moore (L) vs. Blake Snell (L)

Three things to know

  • The Padres are sinking, and fast. They are now 10.0 games out of the division, but right fielder (yes, that’s right) Fernando Tatis Jr. is back.
  • Tatis’s return couldn’t have come at a better time – they only have a .317 WOBA in the last month.
  • The Phillies haven’t been much better offensively – in fact, their .312 wOBA is slightly worse with a barely better ISO (.174).

Best bets: Call me crazy, but I actually like the underdog here. Blake Snell is in struggle mode.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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