The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (8/2)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals betting breakdown

Phillies (-118), Nationals (+100)
Total: 8.5 runs
Ranger Suárez (L) vs. Josiah Gray (R)

Three things to know

• How deep will closer-turned starter Ranger Suárez go?
• Josiah Gray has whiffed plenty of batters in his cup of coffee, but can he limit the home run binge?
• Washington may have traded away Trea Turner, but they are fourth in team wOBA in the last seven days (.359!).

Best bets: I like the OVER here. The Nationals are still surviving even with a decimated lineup, and the Phillies are also improving.

Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees betting breakdown

Orioles (+220), Yankees (-270)
Total: 10.0 runs
Jorge López (R) vs. Andrew Heaney (L)

Three things to know

• Baltimore has been smoking hot at the plate recently. They rank fourth in team wOBA over the last week.
• Can the new acquisitions for the pinstripes fix things? Let’s hope so, as they have been a middling offense all year.
• Which Andrew Heaney is arriving? The strikeout darling, or the one pounded by home runs?

Best bets: I am taking the OVER. Jorge López stinks and Anthony Rizzo has been beasting at the dish.

New York Mets at Miami Marlins betting breakdown

Mets (-152), Marlins (+128)
Total: 7.5 runs
Tylor Megill (R) vs. Sandy Alcantara (R)

Three things to know

• Tylor Megill is saving the Mets – his microscopic 2.21 ERA this year and 39 strikeouts in 35.1 IP has bailed out this injury-laden rotation.
• On the flip side, Sandy Alcantara has taken a big leap forward in 2021 – can he tame this Mets team?
• The Mets need a healthy Francisco Lindor to return – they are 25th in team WOBA in the last week.

Best bets: I like the UNDER here. Both teams stink at the plate.

Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays betting breakdown

Mariners (+180), Rays (-215)
Total: 9.0 runs
Chris Flexen (R) vs. Michael Wacha (R)

Three things to know

• Tampa is a peculiar team to analyze. They are hammering the ball at the plate (.335 WOBA last seven), but they are whiffing at a 28.5% rate.
• Seattle is showing major signs of improvement – their strikeout rate is down (21.2%) and they are hitting better at the plate (.343).
• Chris Flexen has been one of the league’s best starters – he’s got a 3.81 ERA and 1.25 WHIP this season.

Best bets: I like the UNDER here. Flexen has dazzled and this game being in Tampa should keep the fireworks to a minimum.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers betting breakdown

Pirates (+188), Brewers (-225)
Total: 9.0 runs
Bryse Wilson (R) vs. Eric Lauer (L)

Three things to know

• I guess the trade for John Nogowski didn’t resurrect Pittsburgh. They rank dead last in team wOBA in the last seven days (.254).
• The Brewers seem to be turning a corner at the plate – over the same time frame, they rank eighth in wOBA.
• Is it Eric Lauer season? In the last month, he’s logged a 2.21 ERA in 20.1 IP.

Best bets: Another same-game parlay, especially with the recent struggles at the plate for the Pirates.

San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks betting breakdown

Giants (-200), Diamondbacks (+168)
Total: 9.5 runs
Anthony DeSclafani (R) vs. Taylor Widener (R)

Three things to know

• Maybe the return of Ketel Marte can help the Diamondbacks at the plate – they rank 26th in team wOBA (.296).
• The Giants are starting to get spicy at the plate, and new acquisition Kris Bryant and his 134 WRC+ wont hurt.
• Tony Disco has been outstanding as a Giant – can he keep up his sparkling numbers?

Best bets: A same-game parlay makes a lot of sense, especially with DeSclafani dominating.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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