Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.
All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates betting breakdown
Brewers (-210), Pirates (+176)
Total: 9.0 runs
Brett Anderson (L) vs. Mitch Keller (R)
Three things to know
- The Brewers have shown improvement at the plate, but not much – they rank 19th in team wOBA with a .302 mark and sport a 24.8% strikeout rate.
- The Pirates have not been very good at the dish — in the last week, they have recorded a .290 wOBA and 26.7% strikeout rate.
- These are easily the two worst pitchers on the slate. Is this line mispriced?
Best bets: While it’s fair that the offensive numbers don’t reflect great offenses, these pitchers stink. Bet the OVER.
Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies betting breakdown
Reds (+146), Phillies (-174)
Total: 8.5 runs
Tyler Mahle (R) vs. Zack Wheeler (R)
Three things to know
- The Reds are as hot as an August Midwest summer, scorching the ball to a .382 wOBA and .251 ISO in the last week.
- The Phillies have been improving at the dish, and Andrew McCutchen is now back to even make that lineup deeper.
- Is Zack Wheeler going to win the Cy Young? In 156 innings, he’s whiffed 181 batters with a 0.99 WHIP.
Best bets: Same-game parlay. I think Wheeler demolishes the Reds, and Mahle has struggled lately.
Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers betting breakdown
Guardians (-118), Tigers (+100)
Total: 9.5 runs
Zach Plesac (R) vs. Tyler Alexander (L)
Three things to know
- Are the Guardians for real? They’ve been improving as of late with a .165 ISO and .332 wOBA.
- Detroit has also been bad lately — their .280 wOBA is bad but their 31.8% strikeout rate is even uglier.
- Zach Plesac has been awful – his 15.5% strikeout rate is terrible, and his 1.71 HR/9 is by far the worst mark of his career.
Best bets: This is a unique game – I am targeting Jonathan Schoop for a home run prop, and I like the OVER as well.
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox betting breakdown
Orioles (+210), Red Sox (-255)
Total: 9.5 runs
Spenser Watkins (R) vs. Nick Pivetta (R)
Three things to know
- The Orioles have struggled at the dish, and recently, it’s been more of the same with a 4.8% walk rate and 23.1% whiff rate.
- What happened to the Red Sox? Their .309 wOBA the last week has been downright terrible.
- Spenser Watkins is flirting with danger – his 16.8% strikeout rate is low, and his 40.0% fly-ball rate is high.
Best bets: I love a Rafael Devers home run prop, and I think the Sox break out. I also love the OVER.
Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets breakdown
Dodgers (-156), Mets (+132)
Total: 8.5 runs
Julio Urías (L) vs. Tylor Megill (R)
Three things to know
- Mookie Betts has been outstanding (143 WRC+), but he sadly hit the IL yet again this week.
- Is Cody Bellinger finally heating up? He’s homered four times in the last week.
- The Mets have been league average at the plate (.169 ISO, .328 wOBA) – they need Francisco Lindor back.
Best bets: Tylor Megill has been incredible this season. I’d expect him to have his hands full and I do love a F3/F5 ML bet.
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Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers betting breakdown
Athletics (-172), Rangers (+144)
Total: 8.5 runs
Cole Irvin (L) vs. Dane Dunning (R)
Three things to know
- The righty-slamming A’s have been incredible over the last week — they have been crushing lately with a .362 wOBA.
- The Texas offense stinks – in the last week, they’ve logged a .238 wOBA, and in the last month, they are the league’s worst with a .288 wOBA.
- Cole Irvin has picked things up lately – he doesn’t whiff many, but he has logged a 2.59 ERA and 1.07 in the last month.
Best bets: Slam the As. Every bet is in play, including some homer props.
St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals betting breakdown
Cardinals (-146), Royals (+124)
Total: 8.0 runs
Jack Flaherty (R) vs. Mike Minor (L)
Three things to know
- Jack Flaherty has been out since May with a nasty oblique injury – how long will he pitch here?
- The Cardinals are showcasing almost no pop at the dish — a .131 ISO is one of the worst marks in the league.
- Offense might be at a premium – in the last month, the Royals have logged a .293 wOBA.
Best bets: The UNDER. These teams are both bad offensively and runs will be tough to come by.
Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins betting breakdown
Rays (-168), Twins (+142)
Total: 9.5 runs
Shane McClanahan (L) vs. Michael Pineda (R)
Three things to know
- The Rays are hot — they are still smashing at the dish with a .364 wOBA over the last month.
- Minnesota has been middling – they have a .3090 wOBA and .170 ISO over the same time frame.
- Shane McClanahan is incredible, and hitters have struggled with him with 99 strikeouts over 84 innings.
Best bets: The Rays hammer righties. I like them in a F3/F5 and even a McLanahan prop.
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels betting breakdown
Astros (-148), Angels (+126)
Total: 9.0 runs
Zack Greinke (R) vs. Patrick Sandoval (L)
Three things to know
- The Astros have been solid at the plate – their .328 WOBA and .185 ISO has been among the league’s best.
- The Angels are the opposite – their .285 WOBA and .130 ISO has been awful.
- Patrick Sandoval has been downright delightful lately – he’s whiffed 32 hitters in 26.1 IP, logging a 2.73 ERA over that time.
Best bets: I do like the UNDER – the Angels have been terrible at the plate.
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San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks betting breakdown
Padres (-172), Diamondbacks (+144)
Total: 8.5 runs
Blake Snell (L) vs. Madison Bumgarner (L)
Three things to know
- Can the Diamondbacks be this bad? Over the last week they are second worst in team wOBA and have a massive 30.3% strikeout rate.
- Can Snell get the Padres back on track? They will need him to, as he has struggled in recent starts. San Diego is now 9.0 games out of first.
- San Diego has remained solid at the plate with Tatis out – their .338 wOBA and .168 ISO ranks in the middle of the league.
Best bets: Snell has alternated back and forth on good and bad starts, and he was brilliant last time out. I am betting on the underdog Diamondbacks here.
Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners betting breakdown
Blue Jays (-174), Mariners (+146)
Total: 8.5 runs
Robbie Ray (L) vs. Chris Flexen (R)
Three things to know
- The Jays are so deep at the dish – in the last month, they lead the league with a .192 ISO and .337 wOBA.
- Seattle continues to work on gaining its footing – in the last month, they are fourth worst with a .297 wOBA mark.
- These are the two best arms on the slate – runs will be tough to come by.
Best bets: Take the UNDER – both pitchers have been solid, and I think they hold the offenses down.
Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants betting breakdown
Rockies (+190), Giants (-230)
Total: 7.5 runs
Austin Gomber (L) vs. Anthony DeSclafani (R)
Three things to know
- Colorado has sizzled at the plate – in the last month, they are up to a .343 wOBA and .200 ISO.
- The Giants offense has recently disappeared, recording a .287 wOBA.
- Something is in the water in San Fran – Tony Disco owns a 3.28 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in the last month.
Best bets: The Giants tagged Germán Márquez Thursday, but don’t expect them to do the same against Gomber. I actually like the road Rockies here.
(Get all my MLB betting picks here)
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