Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.
Miami Marlins at Baltimore Orioles betting breakdown
Marlins (-104), Orioles (-112)
Total: 9.5 runs
Jordan Holloway (R) vs. Jorge López (R)
Three things to know
- Jordan Holloway is a talented young arm, but how deep will he pitch? In three starts, he’s only reached five innings once.
- I’m unsure if it’s innings management, but in his last eight starts, Jorge López has only reached the fifth one time.
- These are two top-15 offenses in terms of wOBA – are these pitchers about to get slammed?
Best bets: I’d take the OVER here. It hit Tuesday, and with Lopez on the bump, this could get crushed.
Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies betting breakdown
Nationals (+188), Phillies (-225)
Total: 8.0 runs
Patrick Corbin (L) vs. Zack Wheeler (R)
Three things to know
- Zack Wheeler could win the NL Cy Young. He’s whiffed 160 batters with a gorgeous 2.37 ERA this season.
- Patrick Corbin is the anti-Zack Wheeler – he’s struggled mightily this year with a 5.11 FIP, including an ugly 1.64 HR/9.
- These are two top-15 offenses in terms of wOBA – are these pitchers about to get slammed?
Best bets: A same-game parlay with the Phillies. With Trea Turner out with COVID-19, stack the Phillies.
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets betting breakdown
Braves (+114), Mets (-134)
Total: 7.5 runs
Max Fried (L) vs. Tylor Megill (R)
Three things to know
- Despite losing Ronald Acuña Jr., the Braves are still hitting well – in the last two weeks, they rank 13th in team wOBA (.328).
- The Mets without Francisco Lindor have been ballin’ — they have been clubbing the ball (.209 ISO), and rank second in wOBA and wRC+.
- Tylor Megill has been incredible this year. In 30 innings, he’s whiffed 33 batters and recorded a 2.10 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.
Best bets: Quietly, these pitchers are both DEALING. Take the UNDER.
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays betting breakdown
Yankees (+110), Rays (-130)
Total: 8.5 runs
Nestor Cortes Jr. (L) vs. Michael Wacha (R)
Three things to know
- With Nestor Cortes Jr. on the mound, it’s likely a bullpen day for New York. Cortes has recorded a nasty 31.2% K rate this year.
- If Michael Wacha wants a postseason rotation spot, he’s gotta curb the long ball. He’s allowed 1.90 HR/9 in 2021.
- Tampa has recorded nearly a 30% K rate against lefties this year.
Best bets: With Tampa’s southpaw struggles and the game in Tampa, take the UNDER. It hit Tuesday.
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs betting breakdown
Reds (+160), Cubs (-190)
Total: 10.5 runs
Tyler Mahle (R) vs. Zach Davies (R)
Three things to know
- Tyler Mahle is fading, and fast – he was bombed by a poor Cardinals offense last time out, and he has to stop with the walks (four last outing).
- Zach Davies has been better lately, but what’s with the free passes? A 10.9% walk rate would be the worst mark of his career.
- The Cubs were in the bottom five in team wOBA but have risen to 21st in the last few weeks.
Best bets: These are two bad arms. The OVER. And home run props as well.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers betting breakdown
Diamondbacks (-108), Rangers (-108)
Total: 9.0 runs
Madison Bumgarner (L) vs. Jordan Lyles (R)
Three things to know
- Which MadBum is the real team? In the last two starts, he’s recorded a 1.64 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, but he owns a 5.09 ERA for the season.
- The Rangers offense is awful – they rank dead last in team wOBA the last two weeks (.215) with a 26.1% strikeout rate.
- Jordan Lyles is struggling this season – owning a 5.53 FIP, he’s posted below-average marks with an 18.0% strikeout rate and allowing 2.01 HR/9.
Best bets: I know that Texas stinks recently, but these pitchers are bad. Slam the OVER.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals betting breakdown
White Sox (-178), Royals (+150)
Total: 10.0 runs
Lucas Giolito (R) vs. Kris Bubic (L)
Three things to know
- I know Giolito had that ugly Patriots Day start, but he’s been brilliant recently, recording a 1.20 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in the last two weeks.
- Can the White Sox get things going? They rank 25th in team wOBA with a 24% strikeout rate over the last two weeks.
- Kansas City remains as a bottom third offense (.302 wOBA). This offense has definitely disappointed in 2021.
Best bets: This is a same-game parlay. Lucas Giolito has been cooking recently.
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Angels betting breakdown
Rockies (+176), Angels (-210)
Total: 9.5 runs
Chi Chi González (R) vs. Andrew Heaney (L)
Three things to know
- I don’t know why Chi Chi keeps getting the ball – he’s posted a 6.06 ERA and 1.46 WHIP this year.
- The Rockies struck out 10 times the last two games – can strikeout darling Andrew Heaney (105 Ks this season) do it again?
- Just imagine if the Angels were healthy – a lineup including Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon is terrifying.
Best bets: The OVER was smoked Tuesday – and I see it happening again here. This feels like a no-brainer.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants betting breakdown
Dodgers (-134), Giants (+114)
Total: 7.5 runs
Walker Buehler (R) vs. Anthony DeSclafani (R)
Three things to know
- As weird as it sounds, Walker Buehler is a dark horse for Cy Young. He’s been even better over the last month, logging a 1.69 ERA and 0.88 WHIP spanning 32 innings.
- The Giants cut down on whiffs versus lefties, but they don’t hit them very well either – and they have struggled recently at the plate with a 25.8% strikeout rate.
- Tony Disco has been incredible in year one of his Giants tenure — he’s recorded a 2.87 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 119.1 innings pitched.
Best bets: I like the UNDER again. This was a 2-1 nailbiter Tuesdaynight, and I see it being tight on Wednesday.
(Get all my MLB betting picks here)
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