NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek and let us know what your thoughts are around our new daily piece.
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
Red Sox (-102), Yankees (-118)
Total: 9.5 runs
Nathan Eovaldi (R) vs. Michael King (R)
The return of a Red Sox/Yankees series means we will get treated to four-hour baseball games and myriad coverage by the Worldwide Leader on this East Coast series. At any rate, a big surprise of this season has been the strength of the Boston offense and the struggles of New York. Recently, however, both teams have struggled big time — over the last two weeks, these teams rank in the bottom four in MLB in wOBA (.286 and .285, respectively).
Best bets: Until these teams start clicking on offense, I’m taking the UNDER here. A F5 bet on Boston carries some intrigue as well.
Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies
Nationals (+110), Phillies (-130)
Total: 7.0 runs
Max Scherzer (R) vs. Zack Wheeler (R)
With baseball whiffing at an all-time rapid rate, this game is your jam if you like strikeouts. Peep Max Scherzer — the veteran right-hander has the best strikeout rate of his career at 36.2%. And he may not even be the darling of the matchup — Zack Wheeler, who struck out 14 batters in his last outing, owns a career-best 31.7% strikeout rate this season.
Best bets: A run total of 7.0 is really difficult to lock into. Of these two teams, Philadelphia strikes out (25.3%) at a higher clip than the Nats (23.8%). Look closely at the strikeout over/unders here and see if Scherzer gets a gift.
Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates
Marlins (-102), Pirates (-106)
Total: 7.5 runs
Cody Poteet (R) vs. Mitch Keller (R)
This matchup won’t carry a ton of shine, but this will feature two young right-handed pitchers who showcase a ton of promise. For Mitch Keller, the stuff has never been the issue — it’s the control and command. Keller owns a 23.8% strikeout rate on the season, but what seems to consistently get him into hot water is the walk rate — a 9.3% rate mirrors a 9.4% rate a season ago. Poteet, meanwhile, has given the Marlins a shot in the arm, and with Elieser Hernandez missing in action for a while, Poteet is here to stay.
Best bets: I know these offenses stink, but these arms aren’t the second coming of Cy Young, either. Take the OVER.
Cleveland Indians at Baltimore Orioles
Indians (-106), Orioles (-110)
Total: 9.0 runs
Jean Carlos Mejía (R) vs. Keegan Akin (L)
Let. There. Be. Runs. This one seems like a near lock to smash the OVER, and I had to do a little research in order to familiarize with Jean Carlos Mejía. Confused? Me too, but this Indians rotation is desperate for some help. Mejia has worked as a starter in the minors, but this season, the youngster has five appearances, totaling three innings, and he’s been pretty darn effective. Mejia has flashed plus stuff, and mixes in three solid pitches But, I’m always nervous about a young hurler, and this could effectively be a bullpen game.
Best bets: If José Ramírez is in the lineup, smash the OVER here. It’s Camden Yards with a stiff wind blowing out.
Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays
Astros (+114), Blue Jays (-134)
Total: 8.5 runs
Zack Greinke (R) vs. Hyun Jin Ryu (L)
The Blue Jays have moved their home digs from the friendly hitter confines of Dunedin, Fla., to Buffalo, NY. While Sahlen Field is significantly smaller than most Major League stadiums, it won’t be as juicy offensively as Dunedin, which was a hitters paradise. The Toronto offense has officially arrived — even without George Springer playing, Marcus Semien, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Teoscar Hernández have been absolutely cooking at the dish.
Best bets: The perpetually underrated Ryu has been solid yet again, and I like the Blue Jays in a F5 and moneyline bet here.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves
Dodgers (-138), Braves (+118)
Total: 8.0 runs
Julio Urías (L) vs. Ian Anderson (R)
Ian Anderson has been a pretty solid rotation arm, and the Braves have needed him — with Mike Soroka continuing to have setbacks as he rehabs an Achilles injury, the right-hander has virtually replicated last season’s statistics. What’s terrifying for Anderson is that the Dodger offense, despite still missing Corey Seager, seems to finally getting on track. Mookie Betts is smacking the ball, and over the last two weeks, they rank fifth in team wOBA (.328).
Best bets: The Dodgers are almost always favored, and tonight is no exception. With a hot Dodger offense, I like them in a F5, moneyline, and a same-game parlay.
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers
Rays (-124), Rangers (+106)
Total: 8.0 runs
Josh Fleming (L) vs. Kyle Gibson (R)
Kyle Gibson returns from missing a singer start thanks to a groin injury, and I am curious how he fares in this game. The Rays have been absolutely cookin’ — but mostly due to a strong pitching staff. They still struggle at the dish, recording a 27.5% strikeout rate and .302 wOBA (21st) over the last 14 days. Meanwhile, Josh Fleming has been another revelation for this pitching staff — how do the Rays keep finding these guys?
Best bets: Until they show me differently, I am backing the Rays — fire them into a moneyline or a F5 bet.
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
Tigers (-124), White Sox (+106)
Total: 8.5 runs
Spencer Turnbull (R) vs. Dallas Keuchel (L)
We often like to think of baseball players in finite terms — they are this known commodity, or they have baked themselves into being this player. But it that true? In the case of Akil Baddoo, I am not sure we have ever seen make such a drastic in-season adjustment as the young outfielder. If you are unfamiliar with Baddoo’s journey, he never even played Double-A — just straight to the majors — and he logged a horrific 43.9% strikeout rate in April. In May? He cut that in half and logged a 27.3% walk rate. That’s part of the growth of this Tigers offense and part of the reason they are moneyline favorites.
Best bets: Spencer Turnbull has been outstanding this season, and I’ll grab the Tigers in a F5 bet.
Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals
Twins (+106), Royals (-124)
Total: 9.5 runs
Matt Shoemaker (R) vs. Brad Keller (R)
For all the fanfare of the Royals young pitching staff, Brad Keller is one ugly wart. After what looked like a major growth step in the shortened 2020 campaign, Keller has regressed like milk about a week past its expiration date. In 50.2 innings pitched this season, the right-hander has logged a 6.55 xERA and 4.77 FIP — in my expert opinion, that’s not good, Bob. Keller is walking 10.4% of hitters this season, and with a hot and humid Midwest day, expect some long balls from the Twins.
Best bets: The OVER. There will be runs in the streets tonight of Kansas City.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers
Diamondbacks (+166), Brewers (-198)
Total: 9.5 runs
Matt Peacock (R) vs. Freddy Peralta (R)
Where do the Brewers keep finding this scintillating arms? First, Brandon Woodruff turns into an ace. Corbin Burnes slams onto the scene and 2020 and sets the mark to begin a season without a walk, wiping out hitters in his path. Now? It’s Freddy Peralta — long a power arm oozing with talent, the righty boasts a 36.5% strikeout rate this season.
Best bets: This game begs for a same-game parlay over at FanDuel. I love a Peralta strikeout prop (look for anything over 6.5), a Brewers moneyline and a F5 bet.
Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
Reds (+128), Cardinals (-156)
Total: 8.5 runs
Luis Castillo (R) vs. Kwang-hyun Kim (L)
The Cardinals are bad against righties — like egregiously bad. I totally get it and understand. But I am willing to overlook their poor offensive attack and look to smash Luis Castillo. I know that the right-hander is a notoriously slow starter, but something just seems off with Castillo. His swinging-strike rate is the worst of his career (11.0%), and while the fastball velocity has held up, the fly-ball rate has spiked up a tick.
Best bets: I am making a home run call here with Dylan Carlson, and I like the Birds in a F5 and moneyline bet too.
Oakland Athletics at Colorado Rockies
Athletics (-130), Rockies (+110)
Total: 11.0 runs
Frankie Montas (R) vs. Jon Gray (R)
The curious case of Benjamin Button Jon Gray takes the hill for Colorado, and his season has been quite interesting. He has been absolutely brilliant in Denver, but one bugaboo still remains — he is getting hit hard by lefty bats. This season, he has limited same-sided hitters to a .311 slugging percentage, but that ante ups to .389 versus lefties. And for his career, lefties have gotten the better of him, too, posting a career mark of a .434 slugging percentage. On the flip side, this new baseball has really hurt Frankie Montas. His sinker no longer seems to sink — since the start of 2020, he’s allowed 1.70 home runs per nine (HR/9) innings pitched.
Best bets: Second dong call of the day is Matt Olson — he’s cut down on his strikeout rate and could take Gray deep. Consider a third with C.J. Cron, as righties have blasted Montas for a .512 slugging percentage.
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels
Mariners (+150), Angels (-178)
Total: 8.5 runs
Robert Dugger (R) vs. Shohei Ohtani (R)
It’s Shohei day! Man, what an electric time to see such an incredible talent smash at the dish and take the mound. But who is Robert Dugger? This could be a bit of a trouble spot for the righty, who hasn’t flashed a ton of upside in the minors. Primarily working out of the ‘pen this year, Dugger has logged a 22.1% strikeout rate in 17.1 innings pitched. In previous stints with the Marlins, he allowed a lot of hard contact — north of 40% both in 2019 and 2020 — lefties have slammed him for a .645 slugging percentage.
Best bets: A F5 and moneyline bet on the Angels seems very obvious.
New York Mets at San Diego Padres
Mets (+156), Padres (-186)
Total: 7.0 runs
Joey Lucchesi (L) vs. Blake Snell (L)
I am unsure what the heck is going on, but this line is a mistake. Blake Snell has been downright horrific this season — his command and control is off, and he has reached six innings one time in a Padres uniform. His 14.2% walk rate would be the worst of his career, and his issue is getting ahead of batters. His 55.0% first-pitch strike rate is the second-worst mark of his career. Joey Lucchesi, meanwhile, is an injury fill in, and his 6.56 ERA in 23.1 innings pitched indicates just as much.
Best bets: The OVER. Something isn’t right with Snell, and Lucchesi ain’t great, either.
