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The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (6/23)

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Matt Kupferle

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Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek.

Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees

Royals (+144), Yankees (-172)
Total: 10.0 runs
Danny Duffy (L) vs. Michael King (R)

Making this game super saucy is the return of Danny Duffy — likely the leader in the clubhouse for the AL Cy Young Award a month-plus ago, Duffy suffered an arm injury and has not pitched in weeks. Nothing like getting back into the swing of things with a start against the Yankees inside of Yankee Stadium. I am very much a guy that fades pitchers in their first start back from the IL.

Best bets: I am likely staying mostly away from this due to the volatility in the pitching, but if anything, take a peek at how Duffy performs for future betting.

Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles

Astros (-200), Orioles (+168)
Total: 10.0 runs
José Urquidy (R) vs. Thomas Eshelman (R)

Tuesday, we banged the drum for an OVER bet and were treated to a scintillating pitching duel — while the Astros arms don’t surprise me, Jorge López limiting this prolific offense was definitely a head scratcher for me. I don’t expect that again — but I do expect Urquidy to continue his dominant run.

Best bets: The OVER — Tuesday may have been low scoring, but don’t count on that again.

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays

Red Sox (+126), Rays (-148)
Total: 8.5 runs
Garrett Richards (R) vs. Rich Hill (L)

Richards has been a bit up and down for the Sox — while he has shown the ability to rebound from poor starts, and he is generating a modicum of whiffs, this Rays team does hit right-handers at a far better clip, even if they strike out against everyone. On the flip side, the adage with Rich Hill remains consistently — when healthy, he is one of the league’s best starters.

Best bets: This should be an interesting one — but I never bet against a guy named Dick Mountain. Take the Rays in a F5 or moneyline.

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets

Braves (+110), Mets (-130)
Total: 9.0 runs
Kyle Wright (R) vs. Tylor Megill (R)

I’ll be honest — despite owning the largest divisional lead in all of baseball, these injuries for the Mets terrify me. Joey Lucchesi was diagnosed as needing Tommy John, while Noah Syndergaard works his way back from his own Tommy John, Jacob deGrom continues to get minor injuries, and Marcus Stroman left his last game early with a hip issue — Mets are begging for anyone to help out. Tylor Megill has sported mediocre numbers in the minors so far, so I am not expecting much.

Best bets: The OVER — Kyle Wright continues to disappoint, so I expect runs.

Toronto Blue Jays at Miami Marlins

Blue Jays (-134), Marlins (+114)
Total: 7.5 runs
Robbie Ray (L) vs. Trevor Rogers (L)

One of two marquee matchups on the day — the lefties will square off, and this is must-see TV, if we are being totally honest. Robbie Ray’s raised his first-pitch strike percentage to north of 64%, and that’s allowed him to dominate bats. Trevor Rogers has been absolutely brilliant so far this season, and he will try to match Ray with zeroes.

Best bets: The UNDER. I know that total is low, but these guys have been awesome, and Marlins Park is an extreme pitcher-friendly venue.

Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers

Athletics (-142), Rangers (+120)
Total: 9.0 runs
James Kaprielian (R) vs. Mike Foltynewicz (R)

I feel like I am playing a game of Alphabet Soup with these two hurlers on the mound — not only is Mike Foltynewicz a mouthful to spell, but Kaprielian ain’t no joke, either. What could be laughable — this mismatch. Kaprielian continues to impress, and this Oakland offense is cookin (fifth in team wOBA).

Best bets: Another brilliant same-game parlay on this one. Keep smashing the A’s like we recommended Tuesday.

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres

Dodgers (-104), Padres (-112)
Total: 7.5 runs
Trevor Bauer (R) vs. Joe Musgrove (R)

Maybe the spin rate issue was just a blip of an unlucky run of form for Trevor Bauer — the bombastic right-handed pitcher was brilliant in his last turn, firing seven scoreless innings and whiffing eight batters. Can he do that again against a Padres offense that is solid? Possibly — but we need to continue to monitor if Fernando Tatis Jr. will be in the lineup as that balky shoulder continues to act up. 

Best bets: The Dodgers aren’t really going to get swept, are they? Take a Dodgers F5 or moneyline bet here.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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